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Georgia vs Auburn Point Spread Moves from UGA -2.5 to -3.0 – Picks & Odds

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Football

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 11:13 AM PDT

Jake Fromm taking a snap out of shotgun
Jake Fromm gives the Bulldogs an experience edge under center in Georgia's Week 12 battle at Auburn. Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker (Flickr) [CC License].
  • Georgia needs a win to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive
  • Georgia and Auburn allow a combined average of 27.5 points a game
  • Despite an extremely low game total, the point spread is growing

This Saturday (3:30 PM ET, Nov. 16), no. 4 Georgia heads to no. 13 Auburn needing to win to stay in the College Football Playoff race. The Georgia vs. Auburn odds opened at Bulldogs -2.5 with an extremely low game total of 40.5. The spread has been bet up to UGA -3.0, however.

#4 Georgia vs #12 Auburn Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Georgia -150 -3 (-105) Over 40.5 (-110)
Auburn +130 +3 (-115) Under 40.5 (-110)

Odds taken Nov. 14.

The line shift might be caused by the urgency the Bulldogs face to keep their national title hopes alive.

While Georgia would be in the CFP if the season ended today, as a one-loss team, the Bulldogs have no margin for error. No two-loss team has ever made the four-team field.

Auburn is out of the CFP and SEC West pictures, but the Tigers do have a chance to spoil the national title hopes of Georgia. They could also dash the playoff hopes of Alabama, ranked No. 5 by the CFP committee, when they meet in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 30 at Auburn.

Defense Should Rule The Day

The over/under of 40.5 seems almost comically low in this era of fast-paced, high-scoring offenses. However, that number is reflective of both teams’ stellar defenses.

Georgia is second in the nation in points allowed (10.1 a game) and total yards allowed (260.7 a game). The Bulldogs lead the SEC in both categories as well as rushing yards allowed (74.7).

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Under first-year defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, Georgia has three shutouts in a season for the first time since 1981 and has allowed just 17 points during its three-game winning streak. Lanning took over for Mel Tucker, who became the head coach at Colorado.

Meanwhile, Auburn is 13th nationally in both points allowed (17.4) and total yards allowed (334.1).

8-1, 5-1 SEC Record 7-2, 4-2 SEC
33.7 (36th) Points per game 32.7 (45th)
10.1 (2nd) Points allowed per game 17.4 (13th)
449.7 (30th) Total yards per game 425.6 (52th)
260.7 (2nd) Total yards allowed per game 334.1 (13th)

Auburn’s Brown Stuffing Stat Sheet

Auburn senior defensive lineman Derrick Brown is the player to watch in what shapes up as a defensive struggle. A likely top-15 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Brown has 37 tackles this season, ranking fourth on the team. He has also been, to use a basketball term, a stat-sheet stuffer with eight tackles for losses, four sacks, three pass breakups, and two forced fumbles and fumble recoveries.


Georgia senior safety J.R. Reed is a semifinalist for the Bednarik Award, presented annually to the top defensive player in the nation. He has 38 tackles, five passes defensed, an interception, and a fumble return for a touchdown.

Fromm Gives Georgia Experience Edge

Though neither team has an elite offense, they are not hapless on that side of the ball as both average overall 400 total yards per game. Georgia holds a large experience edge at quarterback. The Bulldogs’ Jake Fromm is a junior and three-year starter while Auburn’s Bo Nix is a true freshman.

Fromm has completed 67 percent of his passes for 1,858 yards and 13 touchdowns with three interceptions. Nix has a 12-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio and 56.5 completion percentage while passing for 1,798 yards.

Georgia is at its best, though, when it strikes a good run/pass balance.

Nix threw for a career-high 340 yards in Auburn’s last game, a 20-14 home victory over Mississippi on Nov. 2. The Tigers had a bye last week while Georgia was winning 27-0 at Missouri.

Upset in the Bloodlines

Georgia has won five of the last six meetings with Auburn and 14 of the last 18, including notching a 27-10 victory last season in Athens as a 13-point favorite.

However, the improving Nix has some upset history in his bloodlines. His father, Patrick, threw the game-winning touchdown with 30 seconds left to rally Auburn over No. 1-ranked Florida at Gainesville in 1994.

Nix faces a difficult challenge against Georgia’s defense but, playing at home in Jordan-Hare Stadium, look for him to engineer the upset.

The Pick: Auburn +130 on the moneyline

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