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Liberty vs Toledo Odds and Picks – Prediction for Boca Raton Bowl

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in College Football

Updated Dec 18, 2022 · 7:15 AM PST

Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn looks to pass
Sep 24, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) looks to pass against the San Diego State Aztecs during the second half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
  • Toledo battles Liberty on Tuesday night in the Boca Raton Bowl on December 20th
  • The Rockets are currently 4.5-point betting favorites against the Flames in the CFB odds
  • Read below for Liberty vs Toledo odds, spread and predictions for this bowl matchup

The Boca Raton Bowl sees Liberty and Toledo get it on this Tuesday night, December 20. Kickoff is set for just after 7:30 PM ET at FAU Stadium, and the game will be live on ESPN as part of their “Bowl Week”. Now, both teams are trying to end their season on a good note while getting to nine wins.

Toledo is currently a 4.5-point betting favorite and the total is set at 54.5 for this contest. The Rockets are decent favorites.

Let’s look at the Liberty vs Toledo odds and offer you our best bets and predictions.

Liberty vs Toledo Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Liberty +4.5 (-110) +165 Over 54.5 (-110)
Toledo -4.5 (-110) -200 Under 54.5 (-110)

Odds as of December 17th at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get the BetMGM promo code for Liberty vs Toledo. 

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Toledo is -200 on the moneyline in the college football odds, giving them 66.7% implied probability to win.

Toledo Not Done Yet

So, Head Coach Jason Candle saw his Toledo team get off to a great start and then get pummeled by Ohio State. He strapped in knowing this would be one wild ride. Still, the Rockets showed a ton of resiliency. Despite sneaking into the MAC Championship Game, the Toledo defense stepped up in a big way. They stunned Ohio 17-7 and look to finish their season off with a win against Liberty.

Yes, toss out the Buckeyes game and the Rockets have allowed a mere 20.4 points per contest. That would easily rank well inside the top 40 among defenses in college football.

Now, Toledo does not lose any significant players to the transfer portal or to the NFL Draft. That is the good news. Desjuan Johnson and Quinyon Mitchell key the Rockets’ defense. Johnson caused 16.5 tackles for a loss along with 5.5 sacks and an interception. Mitchell picked off five passes and leads their secondary against what is a prolific Liberty attack.

The key for the Rockets involves DeQuan Finn. His ability to stretch the field with his legs and his arm could cause Liberty some matchup problems. Finn ran for 86 yards on 18 carries against Ohio along with 154 yards and a passing touchdown. The signal-caller combined for 30 touchdowns on the season (22 passing, eight rushing).

This boils down to balance for Toledo. Keeping Liberty off the field is vital to their chances of winning on Tuesday night. The Rockets possess some sneaky wide receivers like Jerjuan Newton. His nine touchdowns and nearly 800 yards led the team. He displays game-breaking speed much like Finn does with his legs.

Liberty Has A New “Interim” Boss

Head coach Hugh Freeze left for the SEC and Auburn after the regular season ended. Interim head coach Josh Aldridge knows his team makes a few too many mistakes for his liking. Liberty’s crowning achievement was shocking Arkansas 21-19 in Arkansas. Unfortunately, the Flames followed that up with three consecutive defeats.

Yes, two of those defeats were close but losing to Virginia Tech never should have happened. Then, New Mexico State pummeling Liberty added salt to the wound.

This game asks the following question. Which Liberty team will we see? Do the Flames come out like the squad that won six straight contests and looks like a top-25 team? Or do we get the Liberty that lost three straight and looked lost against New Mexico State? As crazy as this sounds, this is the first full-night game the Flames have played all season. Does that have an effect?

The key for Liberty remains do not turn the ball over so much.

Liberty’s preseason NCAAF win total of 6.5 victories was reached in late October. Their last win was that Arkansas game.

Toledo vs Liberty Prediction

Most pundits have Liberty as providing solid competition against Liberty, but is Josh Aldridge a little too respectful? We will find out Tuesday night.

Given that Liberty comes in on a cold streak and Toledo is riding that high of upending Ohio, the advantage looks to be on the side of the Rockets.

Toledo laying 4.5 points seems reasonable given how balanced of an offense they are when Finn makes less mistakes. The defense of the Rockets becomes the great equalizer Tuesday night.

Pick:  Toledo -4.5 (-110)

 

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