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Longhorns Have Already Fallen Out of Top-10 CFP Championship Odds; Is Texas a Contender?

Texas Longhorns kneeling with coach Tom Herman
What are the chances the Texas Longhorns compete for a National Championship in 2020? Photo by @LonghornsWire (twitter)
  • The Texas Longhorns’ opened among the top-ten favorites in the 2021 CFP National Championship odds
  • Their odds have fallen considerably as early bettors are fading Tom Herman’s team
  • Here’s a look at whether the Longhorns offer value as a national championship bet at +4000 odds

Oddsmakers have made a major adjustment when evaluating the Texas Longhorns’ National Championship odds for the 2020-21 season. Texas was briefly among the top-10 favorites listed on the board but have fallen from +2500 to +4000 in less than a month.

2020 CFP National Championship Odds

Team Odds
Clemson +230
Ohio State +300
Alabama +450
LSU +700
Georgia +800
Florida +1400
Oklahoma +2500
Notre Dame +3300
Penn State +3300
Texas A&M +3500
Auburn +4000
Oregon +4000
Texas +4000
Michigan +5000
Wisconsin +5000

Odds taken Feb. 13th

Betting futures is all about finding value and the oddsmakers have given you plenty with this major change. Is Texas one of the favorites to win the title in 2021? It really depends how liberal your definition of “favorites” is. Here’s the case why considering the Longhorns at these odds could be a smart play.

Sam Ehlinger Could Be Best QB in the Big 12

Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger has a chance to be the best player in the Big 12 this season and he has an outside shot at garnering Heisman Trophy consideration. He had 32 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season while completing 65.2% of his passes. Entering his fourth season as the starting quarterback at Texas, he could reach an even higher level in 2020.

In each of the previous three years, Ehlinger has improved his completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and rushing yards. There’s little evidence to show he won’t take another step forward this year and that’s really all this team needs to go from quality program to title contender.

Texas Landed OC Mike Yurcich from Ohio State

Mike Yurcich was previously the passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Ohio State. Dwayne Haskins and Justin Fields flourished with the Buckeyes under Yurcich and the offense has consistently been one of the best in the country over the past few years. Texas head coach Tom Herman came from Ohio State and now he’s stealing Yurcich when he needs a new offensive coordinator and play caller. It’s been widely regarded as a home-run hire.

A promotion from a top tier program like Texas would be enticing for anyone, but Yurcich specifically mentioned the opportunity to work with Ehlinger as one of the reasons he couldn’t pass up the job. If Yurcich can elevate Ehlinger to the heights of Haskins and Fields, Texas all of a sudden looks like an incredible play at the long odds they are being given.

Consider Betting Texas Before the Odds Move Again

The Big 12 should probably get more respect in the 2021 CFP championship odds. The conference should come down to Texas and Oklahoma and, if the Longhorns are able to capture their first conference crown under Tom Herman, they could absolutely find themselves in the College Football Playoff.

Looking at the other teams expected to make the final four, the odds are all less than +500. Sprinkle some action on the longshot and hope Yurcich can make some magic with his senior quarterback.

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