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Longhorns’ Win Total Falls From 9.5 to 9.0 with Tough Schedule Ahead

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Aug 22, 2019 · 11:34 PM PDT

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger clapping.
The hype around junior QB Sam Ehlinger was been a big part of why Texas' 2019 win total opened at a high 9.5. Photo by Twitter user @LonghornsWire.
  • Texas’ 2019 season win total has fallen from 9.5 to 9.0
  • The Longhorns have to replace an enormous amount of talent and face one the toughest schedules in the country
  • What’s the best bet for Texas’ win total?

Everyone wants to believe that Texas football is “back,” but it appears the hype has gone too far. The under on the Longhorns’ season win total of 9.5 has been attacked by sharp bettors, forcing online sportsbooks to heavily juice the line, or lower the total to 9.0.

The move comes as no surprise to anyone who’s been following the team closely, as they’ve lost a ton of production from last year’s 10-win team and will face one the nation’s most difficult schedules in 2019.

2019 Texas Longhorns Win Totals

Sportsbook 1 Win Total and Odds Sportsbook 2 Win Total and Odds Sportsbook 3 Win Total and Odds
9.5 (+185o/-225u) 9.5 (+180o/-220u) 9.0 (+105o/-135u)

*All odds taken August 22, 2019.

Is Texas Overrated?

The Longhorns’ season win total opened just one victory shy of their rivals from Oklahoma, despite the Sooners having won the last four Big 12 Championships. Texas hasn’t won a conference title since 2009 and although both teams are ranked inside the AP’s Top-10, advanced projection systems tell a completely different story.

The Longhorns rank 24th in ESPN’s Football Power Index and 35th in Bill Connelly’s S&P projections. They lost more production from 2018 than any other Power 5 school in the country and rank 51st in Connelly’s returning production metric.

The brunt of that loss will be felt on defense which doesn’t bode well given they play in a conference that featured four offenses in 2018 that averaged over 37 points per game.

A Demanding Schedule Awaits

Texas’ schedule is one of most demanding in all of college football. They currently have three top-21 teams lined up, plus challenging road games at West Virginia, TCU and Baylor.

ESPN’s FPI has them favored in just seven of 12 regular season games, and in two of those contests, their projected win rate is below 26%.

If they’re unable to pull off an upset in one of those two games, they’ll need to run the table to reach 10 wins, which seems highly unlikely. If we concede that they’ll likely to lose to the Sooners, their season could hinge on a Week 2 showdown with LSU.

No matter what rating system you look at, the Tigers project as the superior team. If the Longhorns can’t take care of business on their home turf, the over on their win total will be in serious jeopardy.

The Under is the Play

The Longhorns are an extremely public team, in the same vein as the Dallas Cowboys or Los Angeles Lakers. Their lines for games and futures are always inflated to capitalize on the public’s naivety, and their true win total is most likely lower than what’s being offered.

Unfortunately the value on under 9.5 has dried up, so if you’re going to play their win total make sure it’s at a book that offers an over/under on 9 wins with minimal juice. This Texas team is good, but not good enough to overcome the amount of production they’ve lost and a very difficult schedule.

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