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LSU vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Props to Bet – CFB Week 10

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Football

Updated Nov 4, 2023 · 11:24 AM PDT

Alabama are 3-point home favorites over LSU in their key SEC college football game on Saturday.
Josh Williams runs the ball and scores as the LSU Tigers take down Alabama 32-31 at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA ,Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. Lsu Vs Alabama Football 3 2436
  • In their key SEC showdown, the #8 Alabama Crimson Tide are 3-point home favorites over the #13 LSU Tigers in their college football game on Saturday, November 4
  • The two schools have split their last four meetings, with each team winning once on the other team’s home field
  • The Tigers are 3-0 ATS in their last three road games against the Crimson Tide

Among the tightest competitions in SEC football in recent years are the showdowns between the Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-3 ATS) and LSU Tigers (6-2, 5-3 ATS).

In the past four meetings, each school has won two games. They are both 1-1 straight up home and away. It’s LSU, though, holding a 3-1 edge in against the spread outcomes.

Nonetheless, oddsmakers are liking #8 Alabama at home as 3-point favorites over the #13 Tigers in the LSU vs Alabama odds in the latest rematch of this age-old rivalry. The Crimson Tide are 3-2 ATS as the home chalk this season.

Let’s take a deep dive into the LSU vs Alabama odds and offer you our prediction for this Week 10 clash of SEC giants.

LSU vs Alabama Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
LSU Tigers +140 +3 (-105) Over 62 (-112)
Alabama Crimson Tide -166 -3 (-115) Under 62 (-166)

In the LSU vs Alabama odds, the Crimson Tide are -166 moneyline favorites, giving them a 62% implied win probability. The total is set at 62 points. That’s the fourth time in five games between these two schools that the total is 60+ points. On the three prior occasions, the over is 2-1.

 

Odds as of Nov. 1 at DraftKings. Check out our DraftKings Review before betting on Tigers vs Crimson Tide and other college football Week 10 action this week.

 

Last year, LSU won 32-31 over Alabama in OT, covering as 13.5-point home underdogs. On the road against the Crimson Tide, the Tigers are 1-4 SU in the last five games.

Kickoff for this game at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, November 4 is set for 7:45 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by CBS.

Crimson Tide vs Tigers Betting Trends

The college football public betting splits are displaying indecision on the spread. However, with moneyline wagering, the people are all-in with Alabama.

Spread splits are showing 55% of handle backing the Crimson Tide, while 36% of bets are on the Tigers. LSU is 4-2 ATS in the past six games against Alabama.

Moneyline splits are seeing Alabama as money. The Crimson Tide are getting 99% of handle and 91% of bets. Alabama is 10-2 SU in the past 12 meetings with LSU.

Public betting is putting 80% of handle and 68% of bets on the over for the total of 62.5 points. The over has hit in three of the last four games between these two squads. Take it back through the past seven games, though, and it’s a 4-3 edge for the under.

Alabama is the co-sixth betting choice in the National Championship odds at +1500. LSU is the co-ninth pick in this market at +4000 odds.

Can Alabama Hold Tigers Daniels?

If there’s a X-factor in this game, it’s Tigers QB Jayden Daniels. LSU is the #1 offense in the nation, gaining 522.9 yards per game. The Tigers are also #1 in scoring offense at 47.4 points per game.

It all starts with Daniels, a contender in the Heisman Trophy odds. He’s second in the country in points responsible for with 182. They include 25 touchdown passes and five rushing TDs. He’s third in the nation in passing yardage (321.62 YPG). The 25 TD passes leave Daniels in a tie for the NCAA lead.

Daniels is known for his magical ability to make positive plays out of impending disaster. Alabama can’t hope to shut him down. But the Tide must contain him if victory is to be attained.

Will Tide Turn On Injury-Riddled LSU Defense?

LSU’s defense has been miserable against ranked opponents this season. The Tigers gave up 45 points to #4 Florida State. Facing #11 Mississippi, the Tigers were scorched for 55 points. And #14 Missouri lit them up for 39 points.

Making matters worse, a raft of injuries is crippling the LSU secondary. Cornerbacks Zy Alexander, Duce Chestnut and Denver Harris are all out with injury. True freshman Ashton Stamps and Javien Toviano, who hasn’t played a down on defense all season, are expected to play at CB. As well, DT Mekhi Wingo is out for the season.

That doesn’t bode well for a team already ranked 88th in the nation in pass defense (238.5 yards per game) and total defense (395 YPG). LSU is tied for 73rd in the country in scoring defense, allowing 26.50 points per game.

LSU vs Alabama Prediction

It’s the inconsistent Alabama offense against a terrible LSU defense and a fantastic LSU offense facing a stout Alabama defense.

This game should go back and forth but in the end, the Tigers won’t be able to outscore what their pitiful defense will surrender.

For LSU vs Alabama player props, consider Milroe over 236.5 passing yards facing this banged-up Tigers’ secondary.

LSU vs Alabama Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide -3 (-112)

 

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