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Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction, Odds, Spread and Picks

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Football

Oct 26, 2022 · 10:05 AM PDT

Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction, Odds, Spread and Picks
Michigan Wolverines defensive back R.J. Moten (6) celebrates with linebacker Kalel Mullings (20) after his sack on Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford (14) during the second half Oct. 15, 2022 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. michigan defense
  • The Michigan Wolverines are 22.5-point home favorites over the Michigan State Spartans in their Big Ten college football game on Saturday, October 29
  • Michigan State has won the past two meetings with the Wolverines
  • The Spartans are 5-2 straight up in their last seven visits to Michigan Stadium

From the point of view of the Michigan Wolverines (7-0, 4-3 ATS), perhaps it’s appropriate that they so often find themselves facing their arch-rivals the Michigan State Spartans (3-4, 3-4 ATS) this close to Halloween.

After all, in recent years it’s frequently turned out to be a frightening experience for the Wolverines.

Michigan lost one game in Big Ten play all last season. It was to the Spartans. Michigan State is 2-0 straight up in the last two games against the Wolverines. The Spartans are 5-2 SU in their past seven trips to the Big House, aka Michigan Stadium.

Oddsmakers, though, are throwing all that data in the trash bin. It’s the unbeaten Wolverines who are whopping 22.5-point home favorites over the Spartans as they renew their traditional rivalry on Saturday.

Michigan State vs Michigan Odds

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Michigan State Spartans +22.5(-110) O 54.5 (-110) +1050
Michigan Wolverines -22.5 (-110) U 54.5 (-110) -2000

Odds as of October 26 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook bonus code here.

 

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The Spartans are 12-2 against the spread in the past 14 games against the Wolverines. That includes a 6-1 ATS slate in the past seven games at the Big House. Michigan State is also 10-4 SU across that 14-game span.

The kickoff for this game at Michigan Stadium is set for 7:30 pm ET on Saturday, October 29. The weather forecast is predicting clear skies, 5 mph wind and a temperature of 61 degrees. The broadcast of the game can be seen on ABC.

Michigan State vs Michigan Betting Trends

At moneyline odds of -2000, the Wolverines are offering an implied probability of victory of 95.24% in the CFB odds. A successful $10 wager on Michigan would return a very limited payout of just $10.50.

In terms of NCAA public betting trends, the public is definitely leaning on recent history in assessing this matchup. On the spread, the Spartans are getting the backing of 62% of handle and 57% of bets. The public moneyline splits, though, are all Michigan. The Wolverines are drawing 58% of handle and 77% of bets. When it comes to the total of 54.5 points, there’s 74% of the handle and 81% of bets supporting the over.

In NCAA future book wagering, Michigan is the +350 second betting choice to win the Big Ten title. The Wolverines are set as the +1600 co-fifth pick in the National Championship odds.

Wolverines Equipped With Variety Of Weapons

Michigan’s offense starts with a punishing offensive line that opens holes for RB Blake Corum. Fourth in the Heisman Trophy odds at +1200, Corum is sharing the NCAA lead with 13 rushing TDs. He’s seventh in rushing yards (901).

Don’t sleep on Wolverines QB JJ McCarthy, though. Michigan State’s pass defense is weak and he can throw. McCarthy is #1 in the nation with a .771 completion percentage.

Spartans Holding Hoodoo Over Wolverines

Whether he has a bag of magic beans, or some sort of healing elixir, Spartans head coach Mel Tucker always seems to get his team right in time to face Michigan. Michigan State finished the 2020 season in a 2-5 funk. The Spartans lost to Rutgers and were shut out by Indiana. But they beat Michigan 27-24, right in the Big House.

A key for Michigan State in recent victories over Michigan is that the Spartans won the turnover battle. That’s going to be challenging this season. The Wolverines have turned the ball over just four times all season long. That’s third-best in the nation.

Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction

This is only the third time in the past 25 years that Michigan has been listed as a 20+ point favorite of Michigan State. In the two previous meetings, Michigan is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. In fact, if you lower the margin to double-digit point favorites, the Wolverines are 3-6 ATS in the past nine meetings of that ilk with the Spartans.

Based on their respective performances this season, there’s no logical reason to give any heed to Michigan State in this game. And yet that’s been said so many times when these two squads square off. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is 3-4 SU against Michigan State. The Wolverines have been favored in all eight of Harbaugh’s games against the Spartans. They’re 2-5 ATS in the previous seven games.

Pick: Michigan State +22.5 (-110).

 

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