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Mississippi State vs LSU Odds, Lines and Picks

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Football

Updated Sep 15, 2022 · 9:32 AM PDT

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers (2) drops back to pass
Sep 3, 2022; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers (2) drops back to pass against the Memphis Tigers during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
  • Mississippi State is a two-point road favorite over LSU on Saturday night in an SEC game.
  • LSU beat Mississippi State 28-25 last season on the road
  • A look at the odds and matchup can be found below with a prediction

Mississippi State puts it unbeaten record on the line when it visits LSU at 6 p.m. ET Saturday in the SEC opener for both teams at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

Mississippi State (2-0) won at Arizona 39-17 last Saturday. On the same day, LSU (1-1) notched its first win under new coach Brian Kelly as it rolled to a 63-17 victory over Southern, an FCS school.

In a game that will be televised by ESPN, Mississippi State is a two-point favorite after opening as 2.5-point picks.

Mississippi State vs LSU Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Mississippi State -2 (-109) -132 Over 52.5 (-113)
LSU +2 (-112) +107 Under 52.5 (-108)

Odds as of September 15th at Barstool Sportsbook. See our Barstool Sportsbook promo code before wagering. 

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Mississippi State is a -132 moneyline favorite in the college football odds, giving it an implied win probability of 56.9%. LSU is listed at +8533 in the SEC championship odds and the Bulldogs are at +13333.

The weather forecast calls for mostly clear, a high temperature of 73 degrees and no wind.

Mississippi State Outlook

Mississippi State’s win over Arizona came after it handled Memphis 49-23 in the opener. That gives the Bulldogs an average margin of victory of 24 points.

Quarterback Will Rogers is putting up big statistics while running coach Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense. The junior has never met a pass he didn’t like in completing 77 of 98 attempts (78.6%) for 763 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions.

Against Memphis, Rogers had 450 passing yards. He followed with a 313-yard effort last week against Arizona in which he connected on 38 of 48 attempts, including 15 in a row at one point in the second half.

Rogers has +8000 Heisman Trophy odds.

The Bulldogs also rushed for 104 yards with Dillon Johnson gaining 60 on 11 carries.

Mississippi State has spread the ball around while leading for all but 7.5 minutes of their first two games. Six different Bulldogs have touchdown receptions, led by senior wide receiver Caleb Ducking with three.

Mississippi State did have some rough patches last week with three turnovers in the passing game. Rogers threw an interception when the ball bounced off Ducking’s hands and twice receivers fumbled after the catch.

However, Mississippi State offset those turnovers by its defense intercepting three passes.

Nathaniel Watson had the biggest pick. It came with Mississippi State leading 25-17 in the third quarter but Arizona driving with a chance to tie the game. The linebacker had a 51-yard return to the Wildcats’ 11-yard line.

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LSU Betting Outlook

Like Mississippi State, LSU is scoring 44 points a game. Unlike the Bulldogs, the Tigers lost their opener to Florida State 24-23.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels led the way as LSU coasted past Southern last week. He threw three touchdown passes and ran for a score before being pulled early in the second quarter.

Daniels was 10 of 11 for 137 yards. That came after he became the first quarterback in LSU history to pass for at least 200 yards and rush for at least 100 yards in a game that ended in regulation during the loss to Florida State.

Overall, Daniels has connected on 78.3% (36 of 46) of his passes for 346 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in his first season after transferring from Arizona State.

LSU has rushed for 369 yards in two games and could get a boost from the return of running back John Emery. He has not played since the 2020 season while being sidelined by academic issues.

Emery has 566 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 114 attempts in 19 games at LSU.

LSU’s pass defense has been good as its ranks 25th in the country while allowing 160.5 yards a game, though it will be tested by Rogers and the Air Raid. Linebacker Micah Baskerville had a 29-yard interception return for a touchdown last week and blocked a punt that resulted in a safety.

The Tigers are 95th in rushing defense at 166.5 yards a game.

Mississippi State vs LSU Prediction

LSU has an impressive 76-36-3 advantage in the all-time series, though Mississippi State has won three of the last eight meetings. The Tigers beat the Bulldogs 28-25 last season in Starkville.

LSU is hard to gauge off its first two games. Mississippi State has been more consistent and look poised to win in Death Valley.

Pick: Mississippi State -2 (-109)

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