NC State vs North Carolina Odds, Spread and Prediction
- #13 North Carolina is a 6.5-point favorite over NC State on Friday in Week 13 ACC play
- UNC blew a 17-point lead en route to its first conference loss of the season last week
- Keep reading for the latest North Carolina vs NC State odds, analysis and best bets
Three weeks into the season the annual NC State versus North Carolina contest was looking like a game that would be chalk full of high stakes. Nine weeks later and that’s no longer the case.
#13 UNC (9-2, 6-1 ACC) has done its job for the most part, but the same cannot be said for the Wolfpack (7-4, 3-4 ACC). NC State has dropped back-to-back games, and three of its last five overall, and enter play with a sub. 500 conference record.
Online sportsbooks are down on the Wolfpack in the college football odds, as they pegged the Tar Heels as big favorites ahead of this rivalry game on Friday.
NC State vs #13 North Carolina Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack | +6.5 (-110) | +205 | O 56 (-110) |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | -6.5 (-110) | -245 | U 56 (-110) |
Odds as of November 21st at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.
North Carolina opened up as 6-point favorites, but that number has climbed a half point in their favor. Early betting action has been dominated by the Tar Heels, as they’re drawing 83% of the spread tickets and 66% of the spread money.
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The total currently sits at 56 points, but it may not be there for long. That’s because 72% of the over/under money is on the under, with that handle coming from 42% of the total wagers.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC. ABC has the broadcast coverage, while the forecast is calling for 55-degree temperatures and a 40% chance of showers.
North Carolina Betting Analysis
UNC’s hopes of contending in the National Championship odds came crashing to a halt in Week 12. The Tar Heels raced out to a 17-0 lead over a weak Georgia Tech team, only the see their offense completely stall in the second half.
The power outage allowed the Yellow Jackets to come all the way back and steal a 21-17 victory. North Carolina got an 80-yard touchdown run from Elijah Green on their first play from scrimmage, but managed only 285 total yards the rest of the night. They scored only 10 points on five red zone trips, gave the ball away once and turned it over twice on downs.
And just like that, the Drake Maye Heisman Campaign comes to a screeching halt. Very bad loss in Chapel Hill. pic.twitter.com/RDVkD5J7Sr
— Big Game Boomer (@BigGameBoomer) November 20, 2022
QB Drake Maye’s strong play leading up to last week earned him consideration in the Heisman Trophy odds conversation, but he struggled badly against Georgia Tech. Maye threw for a season-low 202 yards and failed to register a TD pass. He absorbed six sacks and gained only 13 yards on 14 rushes.
Maye enters play with 34 TD passes and 3,614 passing yards, which ranks third nationally in both categories. The UNC offense ranks 15th in points per game, and 11th in total yards.
Defensively, the Tar Heels can be had, but this NC State offense isn’t scaring anyone now that starting QB Devin Leary is done for the year.
NC State Betting Analysis
Leary tore his pectoral muscle back in early October, which coincides with the Wolfpack’s downfall. They are 2-3 without him averaging only 18 points per game.
NC State is fresh off back-to-back losses and was dismal on offense last time out against Louisville. They gained just 245 yards against the Cardinals and only 63 yards on the ground on 31 carries.
Freshman Ben Finley, who made his college debut against Louisville, completed 45.7% of his throws for 201 yards. He threw an interception and was sacked three times, while gaining only two yards on four rushes.
Final#HTT | #1Pack1Goal pic.twitter.com/jskETJ3EKO
— NC State Football (@PackFootball) November 19, 2022
Without Leary, the Wolfpack have fallen to 97th in points per game, and 110th in total offense. They’re 81st in third down conversion rate, and 117th in yards per play.
On the other side of the ball, they’ve been competitive which has helped NC State stay in games. The defense has yielded 25 points or less in 10 of 11 games and rank 19th in opponent points per game.
In spite of their strong play on D, they’ve still struggled badly to cover spreads, something that will likely continue on Friday.
NC State vs North Carolina Betting Prediction
The Wolfpack are 3-8 ATS overall, and 1-4 against the number since Leary went down. They’ve covered just once in their last eight games overall, and have failed to beat the number in five straight meetings versus the Tar Heels.
It would be one thing if NC State was coming up short by a point or two here or there, but in their last four ATS losses, they’ve failed to cover by an average of two touchdowns.
NC State vs North Carolina Recent History
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/26/2021 | UNC | NC State | NCST, 34-30 |
| 10/24/2020 | NC State | UNC | UNC, 48-21 |
| 11/30/2019 | UNC | NC State | UNC, 41-10 |
| 11/24/2018 | NC State | UNC | NCST, 34-28 |
| 11/25/2017 | UNC | NC State | NCST, 33-21 |
North Carolina on the other hand needs to make a statement in this game to strengthen their case for a prominent Bowl Game appearance. Expect them to fix their offensive issues from Week 12 and get back to their high-scoring ways.
Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -6.5 (-110)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
