Upcoming Match-ups

Oklahoma Opens as 9.5-Point Favorites Over Baylor in Big 12 Title Game

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in College Football

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 2:48 AM PST

Baylor vs Iowa State football game
The Baylor Bears are nine-point underdogs in the Big 12 title game despite taking a 28-point lead on OU in their first meeting back in November. Max Goldberg (flickr).
  • The Oklahoma Sooners are favored by nine points over the Baylor Bears in the 2019 Big 12 Title game
  • The game is a rematch of a Week 12 tussle that saw the Sooners overcome a 21-point second half deficit in Waco
  • Baylor is 8-4 ATS in 2019

The #7 Oklahoma Sooners (11-1, 8-1 Big 12)  opened as nine-point favorites over the #9 Baylor Bears (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) in the Big 12 Title game this Saturday (Dec. 7th) at 12:00 PM ET in Arlington, TX.

The game is a rematch of an epic Week 12 meeting that saw OU come back from a 21-point second-half deficit to win 34-31 in Waco.

The Baylor vs Oklahoma odds opened at Sooners -9.5, but that’s come down a half point as of Monday morning. Let’s break down the odds and make a prediction.

Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma Sooners odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Baylor +260 -9.0 (-110) O 62.5 (-112)
Oklahoma -320 -9.0 (-110) U 62.5 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 2.

According to the National Championship Odds, the Sooners and Bears have the longest odds to win the College Football Playoff of any teams still on the board.

That’s largely because you have to get into the four-team field to win the title, and the winner of this game needs a couple things to happen just to make the four-team field.

In order for a Big 12 team to make the Playoff, LSU needs to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Oregon probably needs to beat Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game, as well, given that the Utes were ranked a spot ahead of Oklahoma and three spots ahead of Baylor after Week 13.

Rematch in Arlington

The Big 12 Championship game at Jerry World will be a rematch of a heartbreaking home loss for the Bears. It was less than a month ago when Baylor blew a 31-10 halftime lead to Oklahoma, falling 34-31.

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OU quarterback Jalen Hurts did it all that day, throwing four second-half touchdown passes and running for 114 yards.

While Matt Rhule’s team will have revenge on its mind, will it matter? The Sooners are flat-out dynamic on offense, averaging 8.36 yards per play, a shade better than the 2017 Baker Mayfield-led team that played in the CFP. The Bears put up a robust 4.9 yards per carry against Lincoln Riley’s boys back on Nov. 16, but only ran the ball 23 times.

Will Baylor have the right game plan Saturday?

Been There, Done That

Then there’s the experience factor. Since the conference brought back the title game that pits the teams with the two best records two years ago, all OU has done has dominate TCU 41-17 in 2017 and get past Texas 39-27 last season. Last year’s Red River Rivalry rematch propelled Kyler Murray and company to a second consecutive spot in the CFP.

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Oklahoma has not only shown up in big games under Riley, it usually wins them handily. Yes, the program hasn’t won a natty since 2000, but Sooners fans much prefer the current state of affairs to the Bob Stoops era, which came with plenty of success — but blew it in the spotlight (think 2004 and 2005 BCS Championship games).

Conversely, Baylor’s Week 12 performance shows these Bears aren’t ready for prime time just yet.

So, You’re Saying There’s a Chance …

As noted above, the winner of the Big 12 Title game needs help to even be considered for the CFP. But when it comes to programs that have shown up in “Show Me” games (and put up convincing performances when doing so), Oklahoma has done it recently.

Knowing that they not only have to win — but win impressively — I like the Sooners in this spot. Lay the points and go with OU.

Pick: Oklahoma -9 (-110)

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