Week 5 College Football Upset Picks: Lane Kiffin Aiming to Avoid 0-2 Start at Ole Miss
- Week 5 of the college football season sees a big slate of games on Saturday, October 3rd
- Which underdogs are worthy of a wager?
- See odds and picks for some big upsets this weekend below
If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.
The Oklahoma Sooners learned that tough lesson last week. To any bettors that had Kansas State straight up hats off to you. None of these upset picks are of the four touchdown dog variety, but they still offer plus money and it’s always great to find value.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | +2.5 (-110) | +114 | O 64 (-110) |
| Kansas State | -2.5 (-110) | -137 | U 64 (-110) |
All odds taken Sep. 30th at DraftKings
Fade the Wildcats Coming off Upset Win
Let’s start with the victors of last weeks big upset. The Wildcats pulled off the first big upset of the year and they should be commended for that.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s dig deeper into the numbers.
Kansas State trailed by three touchdowns on two different occasions in the 2nd half. They entered the game as four touchdown underdogs and for good reason after a season opening loss to the Sun Belt’s Arkansas State. Don’t fall in love with what you just saw.
The big picture reality is this is a bad football team that got lucky one Saturday in September.
Emergency Press Conference – Texas Tech is Dead To Me Forever pic.twitter.com/DPuSkaQvx5
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) September 27, 2020
On the flip side, there’s lots to like about Texas Tech. Yes, they blew a winnable game against Texas in historic fashion last week, but consider that a blessing. Had they held on for that victory you’d never be able to bet them at plus money in this one.
Running back SaRodorick Thompson has one of the best names in college football and he just so happens to be an incredible athlete as well. He’s rushed for over 100 yards and two touchdowns in each of the Red Raiders first two games. Expect him to run wild again this Saturday, helping Texas Tech rebound after last week’s poor finish.
The Pick: Texas Tech Moneyline (+114)
Ole Miss vs Kentucky Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | +6.5 (-110) | +175 | O 61.5 (-110) |
| Kentucky | -6.5 (-110) | -220 | U 61.5 (-110) |
Can the Lane Train Run Over Kentucky?
Lane Kiffin earned his position at Ole Miss because he can flat out coach. He proved that with the great job he did at Florida Atlantic before moving to the SEC. His first game didn’t go as planned with Ole Miss losing 51-35 to Florida.
Looking deeper into the number though, there was a lot to like with the performance. The Rebels racked up 613 yards on offense against a stout Gators football team. If they were able to do that against Florida imagine what they can do against Kentucky.
Quarterback Matt Corral threw for 395 yards and three touchdowns and was the 2nd best player on the field for Ole Miss. His teammate wide receiver Elijah Moore racked up 10 catches for a career high 227 yards. Look for the dynamic duo to do damage early and often against the Wildcats.
Does Lane Kiffin have a interest in potentially coaching the Jets? pic.twitter.com/1O18tmIkaC
— PFT Commenter (@PFTCommenter) September 23, 2020
Kentucky’s performance against Auburn left a lot less to be excited about. In the 2nd half of a game that was still within reach, the Wildcats mustered up seven points on seven possessions. Included in those possessions were three punts, two fumbles and a turnover on downs. This game pits one opponent that turns the ball over against an underdog who marches the ball up and down the field with ease. The underdog getting +175 seems mighty inviting when you think of it that way.
The Pick: Ole Miss Moneyline (+175)
Charlotte vs Florida Atlantic Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | +6.5 (-110) | +185 | O 62.5 (-110) |
| Florida Atlantic | -6.5 (-110) | -230 | U 62.5 (-110) |
FAU Finally Set to Play Season Opener
From Lane Kiffin’s new team to Lane Kiffin’s old one. Florida Atlantic is now coached by Willie Taggart and if that wasn’t bad enough, the team hasn’t been able to get on the field this year.
This will mark the fifth attempt at a season opener for the Owls. Their first four games of the year were all postponed or cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic. There’s uncertainty about the strength of the coach, uncertainty about the schedule and also uncertainty with the roster. FAU returns only 51% of players from last season which ranks 109th in the country.
Have a great day if you want to!
— @CoachTaggart pic.twitter.com/Xk4zgwRMk2
— Florida Atlantic Football (@FAUFootball) August 20, 2020
This isn’t all about hating the outlook for Florida Atlantic this season, there’s also lots to like about Charlotte. Ignoring the 49ers season opening slip up against Appalachian State, it’s a team that is trending upwards. Charlotte had three straight up victories as underdogs last year and the ability to win as an underdog is great to have in the DNA of a program. Trust running back Tre Harbison to have a big game both putting up points and helping control the clock.
The College Football Win Totals might suggest this isn’t a sexy match up but there’s still money to be made. Forget the spread and get aggressive by taking the 49ers straight up at +185.
The Pick: Charlotte Moneyline (+185)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
