College Football Week 1 Upset Picks: Look Out for Northwestern
- Week 1 of College Football begins on Thursday, August 29
- There are plenty of teams on upset alert
- Which underdog teams should you bet on in Week 1?
Week 1 of college football gets underway on Thursday, August 29th. There are plenty of teams on upset alert, and picking the right underdog can lead to a nice payout.
Here are two Week 1 matchups in which the underdog could upset the favorite.
Pick #1: Northwestern Upsets Stanford
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | +6.5 (-110) | +200 | O 48 (-105) |
| Stanford | -6.5 (-110) | -240 | U 48 (-115) |
*Odds taken 08/27/19.
Stanford is listed as -240 favorites in their first game of the season against Northwestern, but the Wildcats have all the tools to pull off the upset.
The last time these two teams played was in 2015 when Northwestern pulled off a 16-6 upset. The Wildcats haven’t lost an opener on the road since 2004 at TCU.
Stanford is led by returning senior quarterback KJ Costello, but they’ve lost 2017 Heisman Award-nominee running back Bryce Love and wide receivers receivers JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Trent Irwin and Kaden Smith to the NFL. Stanford is also returning just five defensive starters. Nine-year head coach David Shaw is a great leader at the helm, but this is a very inexperienced roster.
Northwestern is coming off a strong 2018 season in which they went 8-1 in the Big Ten and 9-5 overall. Veteran head coach Pat Fitzgerald led the Wildcats to their first Big Ten West Division title and also a Holiday Bowl win over Utah. Running back Isaiah Bowser is returning after he led the team in rushing with 866 yards last year, forming a great tandem with Drake Anderson in the backfield. Linebackers Paddy Fisher and end Joe Gaziano are among the best in the conference.
The Wildcats are replacing quarterback Clayton Thorson, who finished with 3,183 passing yards — third most in the Big Ten. New quarterback Hunter Johnson is a big-time recruit from Clemson with great potential. Johnson has the opportunity to really take the reins in Northwestern and lead this team on a good run. Had he remained in Clemson, Johnson would’ve been competing with Heisman Trophy favorite Trevor Lawrence.
The Wildcats experience prevails and Johnson takes advantage of a weak passing defense to lead Northwestern to victory.
Pick: Northwestern (+200)
Pick #2 Boise State Takes Down Florida State
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | +5.0 (-110) | +170 | O 55 (-105) |
| Florida State | -5.0 (-110) | -200 | U 55 (-115) |
*Odds taken 08/27/19
This should be a very close game, but I see value in taking Boise State at +170. Florida State might have the better overall talent, but the Broncos have the experience and a strong coaching staff that will give FSU problems.
Boise State went 10-2 last year and will be playing with a ton of determination in their opener after falling in overtime to Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference championship game. Boise State is returning seven starters on defense and ten of their top-13 tacklers. Their 212 sacks over the last six seasons are the most among Group of Five schools.
True freshman Hank Bachmeier has been named starting QB for Boise State after throwing for 10,001 passing yards, 124 passing touchdowns and only 21 interceptions as a three-year starter at Murrieta Valley in California. He’ll be looking to prove the coach made the right choice in picking him over redshirt sophomore Chase Cord and senior Jaylon Henderson.
Bachmeier may be labeled a true freshman, but he’s a mature 20-year-old who became familiar with the system as an early enrollee in January. He’ll thrive with Boise State’s returning five starting offensive linemen and won’t crack under pressure in the opener.
Florida State missed out on a bowl appearance last season and suffered an ugly 24-3 loss at home to Virginia Tech in their 2018 opener. James Blackman has been named starting QB for Florida State after he started 12 games as a true freshman for the Seminoles in 2017. He threw for 421 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in his only start last season.
There’s a ton of pressure on FSU coach Willie Taggart after his 5-7 debut season and I think he comes up short against Bryan Harsin in this one. Boise State’s experienced defense shuts down Blackman and Bachmeier connects well with the team’s returning offense to lead the Broncos to victory.
Pick: Boise State (+170)
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
