2018 Fantasy Football Busts: Beware of McKinnon, Watson, Fournette

• Will Leonard Fournette overcome being the focal point of opponent’s defenses with sheer volume?
• Should Deshaun Watson be drafted over Tom Brady despite injury concerns and small sample size?
• Can Robert Woods continue to thrive entering year two of Sean McVay’s offense

These days, all fantasy owners know that you won’t win your league in the early rounds, but you sure can lose it, so staying risk averse early in your draft is paramount. Today, we’re flagging four early picks and one mid-rounder whose current average draft positions (ADPs) represent their ceiling outcomes, increasing their bust potential.

The projections below are based on PPR scoring with data coming from FantasyPros as of August 16th.

5. Leonard Fournette RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

I’m a Fournette fan, but if the object is to stay risk averse early, then late-first round is too high for the bruising back.

After a mostly successful rookie campaign in which he helped turn the Jaguars, a perennial doormat, into a team that came oh-so-close to a Super Bowl appearance, Fournette won’t be taking anyone by surprise. Loaded boxes await. Defenders will be geared up to stop the run and force the ball into Blake Bortles’ inconsistent hands.

That means Fournette will have difficulty matching the 103.2 yards per game he put up in 2017, likely needing improvements in the passing game to open up some running room. Relying on Jaguars QB Blake Bortles has proven to be a risky proposition, at best, whether it’s real life or fantasy football.

Even if Bortles continues the progress he made last season, there are also injury concerns with Fournette. He missed two games to injury as a rookie while garnering 304 touches over 13 games. Will he even hold up that well again averaging over 23 touches per game? He dropped 15 pounds this offseason in an effort to keep up his speed and burst over the course of a full NFL season. It remains to be seen whether the slimmed-down version will be able to handle such a massive workload.

Look for Fournette to have some big weeks but not live up to his lofty draft status as the 12th-overall pick, even if his body handles the rigors of massive volume.

4. Stefon Diggs WR, Minnesota Vikings

As a talent, Diggs is off the charts. As a value, he is too high on the charts.

Three years into his career, the Maryland alum has developed a pattern, missing at least two games each season. I’m not arguing that WR13 is too high for Diggs when he’s healthy. I am arguing that a player who has only averaged 13.33 games per season is not a good value as the WR13.

Sure, Kirk Cousins’ arrival could take the offense to greater heights in 2018, but I’m not willing to spend a third-round pick on a player who: (a) has career highs of 903 yards and 14 games played and (b) has proven he can’t hold up to being a team’s number-one option.

A number of other factors increase Diggs’ bust potential:

• Cousins has averaged 27 passing touchdowns over the last three years. (How much of an upgrade is he really over Case Keenum, who threw 22 last season?)
• The Vikings have one of the league’s most dominant defenses and a head coach (Mike Zimmer) who likes to control the flow of the game with the run.
• Diggs will be competing for targets with teammate Adam Thielen, who bettered Diggs in almost every statistical category last year, including targets per game (8.8 to 6.8), yards per game (79.8 to 60.6), and red zone targets per game (1.1 to 0.93) . Diggs had more touchdowns (8 to 4), but TDs are one of the least consistent stats, year over year.

It all adds up to way too much bust potential for a guy being drafted in the third round.

3. Deshaun Watson QB, Houston Texans

No way, no chance, no how. Deshaun Watson may be getting some MVP whispers but I am not ready to draft him over Tom Brady. Nor am I ready to pick him 56 spots earlier than a proven QB like Matthew Stafford.

Sure, Watson provided fantasy owners with a magical five-game run during his seven-game rookie campaign. That’s not enough to be picked over the G.O.A.T or other QBs who annually put up over 4,000 yards and 25 TDs.

Watson is being drafted on upside and his league-winning potential with owners ignoring all other factors. Seven games is not a large enough sample size to assume his 2017 performance will continue, and small sample size is just the tip of Watson’s bust-potential iceberg.

The 2017 Texans were missing some huge pieces on defense which caused them to be more aggressive in their offensive approach, and Watson himself dug some of the holes the Texans had to throw out of. The Houston defense should be closer to the unit that finished 10th in DVOA in 2016 than the group that regressed to 23rd last season. So don’t expect any more 41-38 shootouts.

A successful second year for Watson means making it through 16 games and leading Houston a winning record. It doesn’t mean sustaining a touchdown rate (9.3%) that has been seen only one other time in the history of the NFL.

Watson will not bust per se, but he has almost no chance of returning value on his lofty draft status.

2. Robert Woods WR, Los Angeles Rams

Woods’ 2017 stat line — 781 yards, five TDs, 56 catches in just 12 games — should have him even higher than WR33, but the fantasy community is not sold on the 2017 breakout receiver, and rightly so. Woods would be a steal with the number 81 pick if he reproduces those numbers, however, the Rams went out and traded for big-play receiver Brandin Cooks and promptly signed him to an extension after letting go of Sammy Watkins in free agency.

The Cooks-for-Watkins switch is not a wash. Watkins only had 70 targets last year and struggled to integrate into McVay’s system. Cooks has had the benefit of working with the offense all off season, a benefit Watkins did not have prior to 2017.

This is also the second straight year the Rams have spent big on a superstar receiver, leading one to believe they view Woods as more of a bridesmaid then a bride. Add in a talented second-year receiver in Cooper Kupp, who will warrant a bigger piece of the receiving pie, plus RB Todd Gurley, whose as good catching passes out of the backfield as they come, and it’s easy to see Woods as the fourth receiving option on his own team.

If I’m looking to maximize value at this point of the draft, I’m much more interested in players who will see a larger target share, e.g. Marquise Goodwin (San Francisco; 80th overall ADP) and Jamison Crowder (Washington; 90th overall ADP). There is little chance Woods provides owners with solid return on their investment even at his modest pricing.

1. Jerick McKinnon RB, San Francisco 49ers

There are exceptions to every rule, even the one that states don’t bet against a Shanahan running back. Both father Mike and son Kyle have turned unknown RBs into household names in their time-tested system. In 2018, Jerick McKinnon will look to be the next in the long line of successful Shanahan ball carriers.

Over four seasons in Minnesota, McKinnon failed to capture the lead backfield job and only found success in 2017 after rookie running back Dalvin Cook was lost for the season.

Splitting time with Latavius Murray, McKinnon was able to set career highs in total yards (991) and total TDs (5) while garnering just over 200 touches for the second consecutive year (after only managing 18 total touches through the first four games with Cook healthy).

McKinnon has uber athleticism and a coach who can maximize it, but I question if the 5’9, 205-pound back can hold up to a feature role. I also can’t help but wonder why the Vikings, a team as good as any at talent evaluation, kept him on the sidelines until they were out of other options. Maybe they know something Shanahan and the fantasy community don’t.

Invest the 24th pick in McKinnon and you’ll be drafting this years most probable fantasy bust.

Projecting busts always leads controversy because you are inevitably forecasting bad things for good — sometimes great — players. Let’s hear your rebuttals in the comment section below or on Facebook and Twitter.