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2019 Odell Beckham Jr Props After Trade to Browns: Odds Favor OBJ Surpassing 1,100 Yards

Odell Beckham Jr in Browns jersey
Odell Beckham Jr has been traded to the Cleveland Browns. Photo from @tbdaniel15 (Twitter)
  • Browns land Odell Beckham Jr. to supercharge receiving corps
  • Analyzing Beckham’s receiving props from Bovada / BetOnline
  • How will one of the best receivers in the NFL fare in Cleveland?

I’m not exactly sure how we got here, because it’s both dizzying and stupefying, but somehow the Cleveland Browns, just one season removed from a year where they went 0-16, are suddenly the sexy pick for the Super freaking Bowl.

That prediction came early Tuesday evening, when news of a blockbuster trade rocked Twitter.

For the price of a first-round pick, a third-round pick, and safety Jabrill Peppers, the Browns have just taken their offense to a whole other stratosphere.

With Beckham as the centerpiece of a core that includes Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and David Njoku, this should be electric. Can we get the season to kick off already?

Oddsmakers have been scrambling to set the line on what OBJ can accomplish, so let’s see where you should be laying your bets.

Over/Under Receptions

Prop Bovada Projection O/U Odds at Bovada BetOnline Projection O/U Odds at BetOnline
Receptions 2019 Regular Season 91.5 O (-120) / U (-120) 89.5 O (-115) / U (-115)

*All odds taken March 13

In happier times, when the New York Giants were in love with the single greatest athlete in their storied franchise’s history, they also had the tail end of competent quarterbacking from Eli Manning.

In those years, Beckham’s lowest output in catches was 91 – and that was his rookie season, when he played only 12 games, a hamstring injury stalling his debut.

After an ugly broken ankle in 2017, he bounced back last year with 77 catches for 1,052 yards in 12 games. While it was a down year for him, he was actually propping up Manning, who flailed without OBJ in the lineup, with a passer rating of 78.8 and a Total QBR of 46.9.

If Mayfield maintains the clip he finished off on the final eight games of the season, ranking sixth in passer rating (106.2), seventh in QBR (70.1), and second in yards per attempt (8.6), this is a case of sky’s the limit.

The Pick: Over 89.5 receptions (-115)

Over/Under Touchdown Receptions

Prop Bovada Projection O/U Odds at Bovada BetOnline Projection O/U Odds at BetOnline
Touchdowns 2019 Regular Season 9.0 O (-120) / U (-120) 8.5 O (-115) / U (-115)

Beckham entered the NFL a man on fire, tallying a minimum of 10 TD receptions in his first three seasons, with a high of 13 in 2015. Injuries ended that streak, and a really bad Giants team stamped out that hope last year, when he had just six.

Like I’ve mentioned before when discussing this prop, it’s immediately buyer beware, as TD catches remains one of the most volatile categories to predict.

Odell Beckham Jr Statistics

Year Games Targets Receptions Yards Touchdowns
2018 12 124 77 1,052 6
2017 4 41 25 302 3
2016 16 169 101 1,367 10

It should bear mentioning that ESPN’s panel of experts projected OBJ’s stats for the upcoming season, and only one dipped under nine.

That being said, like I did with DeSean Jackson, I just think the first year with a team is the one that brings most impact. And this guy has something to prove.

The Pick: Over 8.5 TD Receptions (-115)

Over/Under Receiving Yards

Prop Bovada Projection O/U Odds at Bovada BetOnline Projection O/U Odds at BetOnline
Receiving Yards 2019 Regular Season 1,200 O (-120) / U (-120) 1,100.5 O (-120) / U (-110)

Beckham is going to blow the top off of defenses this year, partly because he has the quarterback that specializes in the deep ball.

Consider for a moment that in the last half of the season, when Mayfield took the reins of the team and the Hue Jackson circus left town, he led the NFL with 34 deep passes completed, good for a passer rating of 113.9.

Perhaps the only thing that could caution you is that Jarvis Landry will be back to his usual short-route, open-space self, and his massive production in previous years in Miami could also return here.

It’ll only cause me to take the lower number offered, but we’re banging the over.

The Pick: Over 1,100.5 Receiving Yards (-120) 

Odds Beckham Leads the NFL in Receiving Yards

Will Odell Beckham Jr. Lead the League in Receiving Yards? Odds at Bovada Odds at BetOnline
Yes +600 +700
No -1200 N/A

All this talk about how Mayfield will free up Beckham, but there’s some love to be reciprocated here.

The 26-year-old Beckham is a home-run hitter every time he lines up on the field. He’s already posted 13 career TD receptions of at least 20+ yards.

He’s so dynamic in every aspect of his game, he can turn short routes into monster scores, so any pass in his direction, no matter how short, can ever really be considered a checkdown.

Any other year, Beckham would be a serious lock to claim the most receiving yards, but he’s going to be up against a fellow receiver that also has something to prove, after being moved.

Antonio Brown has claimed this crown twice in the last five years, his most recent in 2017, and he’ll be in the running again. We haven’t even discussed the reigning yards king Julio Jones, who’s also claimed two in the last four seasons.

If Beckham can stay healthy, he’d need to get back to his best statistical season in 2015, when he averaged 96.7 yards receiving a game in 15 contests. That would put him in the mix with just under 1,550 yards.

He’s gonna have a monster year, but it’s too risky for my blood.

The Pick: No (-1200)

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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.