UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds – Sterling vs Zalal

• Tonight’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by the Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal featherweight fight
• Sterling is 4-0 in bouts that have reached championship rounds
• See the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for Sterling vs Zalal and more

UFC Fight Night is back in Vegas tonight, for a 13-fight card headlined by the Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal featherweight bout. Online sportsbooks are siding with Zalal by a small margin, which I believe opens up value on Sterling, the much more experienced and decorated fighter.

The UFC Fight Night prelims are already underway on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for Sterling vs Zalal and more.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Odds as of April 25 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

As of Saturday afternoon, Zalal is a -135 moneyline favorite, with Sterling coming back as a +114 underdog. This will mark Zalal’s first 5 round bout of this UFC tenure, while Sterling is 4-0 in fights that reach the championship rounds. That’s important because online sportsbooks expect this fight to go the distance, pegging over 4.5 rounds at -195 odds.

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UFC Fight Night Predictions: Sterling Moneyline

The striking stats for these two fighters are similar, with Sterling landing slightly more volume, but Zalal boasting the better chin. Neither of these fighters want to decide things on their feet however, as both are accomplished grapplers.

Since returning to the UFC, Zalal has dominated on the ground on his way to five victories, four by submission. He’s had his way with less accomplished wrestlers but he won’t have that luxury tonight.

Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal Tale of the Tape

Sterling is the superior grappler of the two, posting a 65% control rate on the ground while averaging over 5 takedown attempts per 5 minutes. Zalal’s stats aren’t that far behind, but what separates them is Sterling’s ability to operate on his back. Even if Zalal manages to take him down, Sterling has the ability to flip the switch in an instant from his back.

Sterling also has the luxury of not having to cut as much weight, having just moved up to this class. He should boast a cardio advantage having fought many lengthy battles before, and has a much better resume than his opponent. Sterling has shared the Octagon with some of the best bantamweights and now is doing the same with the top featherweights.

Zalal on the other hand, has beaten up on an inferior batch of fighters and has yet to be tested. This bout profiles as an exciting, pretty evenly matched bout, creating a ton of value on Sterling at his plus-money price tag.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #1: Aljamain Sterling Moneyline (+114 at DraftKings)

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Buchecha vs Spann Winning Round

In addition to Sterling, I’m also betting that the heavyweight bout between Marcus Buchecha and Ryan Spann ends in Round 1. That’s a common theme in Spann’s fights, as eight of his 11 bouts haven’t made it out of the opening round.

That streak is likely to extend tonight, as Spann is taking this fight on very short notice which will put his questionable cardio even more in the spotlight. The American is either going to finish his opponent early, or gas out and succumb most likely to a submission.

Buchecha is certainly capable of finishing Spann early, as all five of his victories have come by finish in Round 1. One of the most accomplished BJJ fighters in the promotion, Buchecha has struggled in his short UFC tenure, but a date with a man that’s going to sell out to stop him could be just what he needs. All it takes in wrong move by Spann, and Buchecha can put him in a pretzel, earning his fifth career submission victory.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #2: Buchecha vs Spann Winning Round (+100 at Bet365)