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2021 First-Round NFL Mock Draft Based Entirely Off Betting Odds

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Apr 16, 2021 · 7:48 AM PDT

  • The 2021 NFL Draft begins Thursday, April 29
  • Sportsbooks have released a large variety of NFL Draft props already
  • We’ve taken all the odds available and pieced together our first round NFL Mock Draft based strictly off these odds

With most of the big names in free agency claimed, all eyes are on the 2021 NFL Draft, which begins Thursday, April 29 at 8pm ET. Although we are pretty sure we know how the first two picks will play out, there is plenty of intrigue after that.

Instead of sitting here and giving you my opinion on what will happen – you’ll get a bit of this at the bottom of this page – I have rounded up all the NFL Draft odds and used them to piece together a full first round NFL Mock Draft.

The props considered include, but are not limited to: odds to be a top 5/10 pick, player draft position over/unders, odds to be first player taken at each position, first round position totals, offense or defense with first pick for each team etc.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

Pick Team Player Position
1 Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence QB
2 New York Jets Zach Wilson QB
3 San Francisco 49ers Mac Jones QB
4 Denver Broncos* Justin Fields QB
5 Cincinnati Bengals Kyle Pitts TE
6 Miami Dolphins Ja’Marr Chase WR
7 New England Patriots* Trey Lance QB
8 Carolina Panthers Penei Sewell OT
9 Atlanta Falcons* Patrick Surtain II CB
10 Los Angeles Chargers* Rashawn Slater OT
11 New York Giants DeVonta Smith WR
12 Philadelphia Eagles Jaylen Waddle WR
13 Dallas Cowboys* Jaycee Horn CB
14 Minnesota Vikings Christian Darrisaw OT
15 Detroit Lions* Micah Parsons LB
16 Arizona Cardinals Caleb Farley CB
17 Las Vegas Raiders Trevon Moehrig S
18 Miami Dolphins Kwity Paye EDGE
19 Washington Football Team Dillon Radunz OT
20 Chicago Bears Teven Jenkins OT
21 Indianapolis Colts Liam Eichenberg OT
22 Tennessee Titans Greg Newsome II CB
23 New York Jets Jaelan Phillips EDGE
24 Pittsburgh Steelers Alijah Vera-Tucker OL
25 Jacksonville Jaguars Gregory Rousseau EDGE
26 Cleveland Browns Jayson Oweh EDGE
27 Baltimore Ravens Rashod Bateman WR
28 New Orleans Saints Terrace Marshall Jr WR
29 Green Bay Packers Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB
30 Buffalo Bills Azeez Ojulari EDGE
31 Atlanta Falcons* Najee Harris RB
32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Joe Tryon EDGE

*Denotes a projected trade.

Here’s a more compact look at the mock, including who currently holds each pick and where we have the trades happening:

>> View SBD’s 1st Round NFL Mock Draft 1.0  <<

Projected NFL Draft Trades

  1. Broncos move up to #4 for Fields – Personally, I don’t think Denver will give up the picks to pull off this trade. It will likely take the ninth-overall pick and another second round pick. But the Ohio State quarterback is still heavily favored to be selected in the top five picks, so we needed to make a move. The other two teams eager for a signal-caller are the Patriots and Bears, and those moves would likely require multiple firsts going to the Falcons.
  2. Patriots move up to #7 for Lance – The Patriots obviously don’t believe in Jarrett Stidham, and we’re unsure what Cam Newton will bring in 2021. New England needs their next Tom Brady, but will have to make a move up from 15 to do so. Trey Lance’s draft position over/under is 6.5 at DraftKings, with -112 odds on each side, and 7.5 at FanDuel, with the under listed at -215. Detroit is the perfect candidate to move down, as they have holes all over their roster to fill. The Lions would likely receive the Pats’ first and second round picks from this draft, if this trade happens.
  3. Chargers move up to #10 for Slater – I ran into an issue with finding a home for Rashawn Slater, who is favored to be a top ten pick. He has to fall in after Penei Sewell, who is heavily favored to be the first offensive lineman taken, but wouldn’t make sense in Atlanta and the odds favor Dallas going defense with their first pick. Along with their first round pick this year (13th overall), the Chargers would likely have to throw in a third round pick as well to acquire some much-needed protection for Justin Herbert.
  4. Falcons move back into 1st round for Najee Harris – The Alabama running back’s draft position over/under is set at 29.5, with -112 odds on each side. Looking to the teams picking late in the first round, none of them have glaring holes at RB, so we needed to push another trade through. The Todd Gurley experiment didn’t work out in Atlanta, and I don’t foresee Mike Davis being the solution either. It’s a short move up the board for the Falcons from 35 to 31, likely needing to throw in another mid/late-round pick, or potentially swapping picks with the Chiefs in the fourth round.

First Round Mock Draft Notes

Allow me to justify some of the other picks that have you calling me an idiot:

  • Bengals take Kyle Pitts at no. 5 – Cincinnati should be using this pick on Penei Sewell, in my opinion. But Pitts’ odds to go in the top five picks are set at -167, while Sewell’s have fallen to +108. Pitts also has the best odds to be the first non-quarterback selected in the draft. If Atlanta stays put at no. 4, they might be the ones making the Florida prospect a top five pick.
  • Bears add to offensive line at 20 – Andy Dalton is not the long-term answer under center for Chicago, and he may not even be much of a short-term improvement either. To give Dalton the best chance, though, they need to get better up front. The odds heavily favor Chicago taking an offensive player with their first round pick, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re the team who picks off Kellen Mond or sells everything to move up for Fields/Lance. But no. 20 is probably too early for Mond, and will be very pricey for the latter.
  • Ravens get Lamar a real WR1 at 27 – Sammy Watkins is a good complementary receiver, but is not the answer to Baltimore’s lack of a true no. 1 receiver. The odds say the Ravens go offense with their first pick, and while it could be an offensive lineman, receiver makes too much sense. After missing on Kenny Golladay and Allen Robinson in free agency, the team needs to make a splash at the position to get back on the same level as the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC.
  • Packers take Owusu-Koramoah at 29 – looking up and down the Packers roster, it’s easier to identify positions they don’t need vs what they do. There’s not a ton to love outside of QB, RB, LT, WR1, CB1, and the safety position. If last year’s draft tells us anything, Green Bay likely takes a left tackle to sit behind David Bakhtiari for a few years. The odds say the Packers go defense, though, and linebacker is such a big need for them.
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