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Opening NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds – Titans’ Derrick Henry Favored

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2022 · 7:05 AM PDT

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half of an NFL divisional round playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 22, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
  • Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is the +250 favorite to win the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award
  • Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is the second betting choice at +400
  • Quarterbacks have won the award in each of the past four seasons

NFL defenders know that when they see Tennessee Titans running back Derick Henry coming, they are in for a world of pain. Imagine then, how menacing Henry could prove to be on the comeback trail.

Oddsmakers certainly have pondered this notion and they consider the most likely outcome to be that Henry will be named the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year. He’s been established as the +250 favorite in the opening futures odds. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill was named NFL CPOY in 2019.

2022 NFL CPOY Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Derrick Henry (Titans) +250
Deshaun Watson (Browns) +400
Jameis Winston (Saints) +550
Michael Thomas (Saints) +600
Daniel Jones (Giants) +800
Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) +800
Travis Etienne (Bengals) +1000
Cam Akers (Rams) +1000
Mitchell Trubisky (Steelers) +1000
JK Dobbins (Ravens) +1100
Robert Woods (Rams) +1200
Danielle Hunter (Vkings) +1200
Will Fuller V (Free Agent) +1400
Marcus Peters (Ravens) +1400
JuJu Smith Schuster (Chiefs) +1400
DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) +1400
Baker Mayfield (Browns) +1400
Khalil Mack (Chargers) +1800
Tre’Davious White (Bills) +2000
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Free Agent) +2000
Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) +2500
Darrell Henderson (Rams) +2500
Carl Lawson (Jets) +2500
DJ Chark (Lions) +2800
James White (Patriots) +3500
Marlon Humphrey (Ravens) +4000
Jaycee Horn (Panthers) +4000
Gus Edwards (Ravens) +4000
Chris Carson (Seahawks) +4000
Blake Martinez (Giants) +4000
Maxx Williams (Cardinals) +5000
Dan Arnold (Jaguars) +5000

Odds as of April 8th at DraftKings Sportsbook

Next in line as you can see from the odds above, are Deshaun Watson and Jameis Winston.

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Was Henry Already In Decline?

On the surface, Henry was charging toward setting NFL rushing marks during the 2021 season. He was the runaway NFL rushing leader and on track to set new career standards for carries and yards, perhaps even topple the NFL’s all-time single-season rushing mark.

However, is it also possible that the heavy workload being carried by Henry as a ball carrier was a contributing factor to the fractured foot and ensuing surgery that derailed his 2021 campaign? A couple of prominent NFL analytics sites are offering evidence suggesting that this may be the case.

According to Next Gen Stats, Henry led the NFL in rushing yardage over expected in both 2019 and 2020. Last season, though, his totals were just 11 yards over the established expectation for Henry’s season.

Pro Football Focus showed Henry as the NFL leader in yards after contact in both 2019 and 2020. But he was just 10th among NFL running backs in this department last season.

That being said, Henry was averaging 117 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game last season. Over a 17-game stretch, that adds up to 1,989 yards gained and 22 TDs. If Henry were to put up those totals in 2022, he’ll be hard to pass over in the NFL CPOY voting.

Watson Presents Complex Conundrum

In 2020, Watson’s most recent NFL season, he led the league in passing yardage (4,823), yards per attempt (8.9) and yards per completion (12.6). If he posts that kind of performance and is leading the Browns back into the NFL playoffs, he’ll definitely be in the NFL CPOY conversation.

QBs have won this award the past four seasons. But none brought the baggage to the field that Watson is packing and bringing with him to Cleveland.

Though two separate Texas Grand Jurys declined to file charges of sexual misconduct against Watson, he still has 22 civil suits hanging over his head. Giving him the NFL CPOY could prove to be a PR nightmare for the league.

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Other Players Offering Value

With wideout Tyreek Hill gone from Kansas City, JuJu Smith-Schuster may be enjoying a monster year hooking up with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Michael Thomas led the NFL in receptions with the New Orleans Saints in 2018-19. But he missed all of 2021 and played just seven games in 2020.

Likewise, Carolina’s Christan McCaffrey was the NFL leader in touches and all-purpose yards in 2019. He’s played only 10 games for the Panthers the past two seasons.

NFL CPOY Prediction and Pick

If Henry returns to the field and is the Henry of old, this race will be no contest. When healthy, he’s been far and away the most dominant back in the NFL over the past few seasons prior to his injury.

Even if Watson turns in a spectacular campaign for Cleveland, the circumstances of his 2021 absence are going to hurt his CPOY cause. The NFL is all about protecting the shield. Then again, Michael Vick did win the NFL CPOY Award in 2010 after doing time for his part in a dog fighting ring.

Still, a healthy productive Henry runs away with this honor. Should he not return to form or even worse, return to IR, then all bets are off.

Pick: Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans) +250

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