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Allen, Murray Tied Atop NFL MVP Odds; Prescott, Herbert Continue to Improve

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Oct 11, 2021 · 6:44 AM PDT

Josh Allen celebrates vs Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs to the locker room after an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. The Bills won 38-20. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
  • Josh Allen’s dominant Sunday night moved him into a tie atop the 2021 NFL MVP Odds with Kyler Murray
  • While Patrick Mahomes experienced a huge fall, both Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert benefitted
  • See the updated odds and best bet below

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills made a statement on Sunday night.

Not only did they knock off the two-time defending AFC champions, but they did so emphatically. And Allen turned in, undoubtedly, his best performance of the season. And when comparing his night to Patrick Mahomes’? It wasn’t even close.

Allen’s performance, as well as a key injury to the field, has drastically shifted the NFL MVP Odds landscape.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Josh Allen, BUF +450
Kyler Murray, ARZ +450
Justin Herbert, LAC +600
Dak Prescott, DAL +600
Tom Brady, TB +800
Aaron Rodgers, GB +900
Matthew Stafford, LAR +900
Patrick Mahomes, KC +2000
Lamar Jackson, BAL +2500
Nick Chubb, CLE +5000
Baker Mayfield, CLE +5000
Derrick Henry, TEN +5000
Sam Darnold, CAR +8000
Jalen Hurts, PHI +5000
Ryan Tannehill, TEN +10000
Derek Carr, LVR +10000
Joe Burrow, CIN +10000
Jameis Winston, NO +10000
Cooper Kupp, LAR +10000
Davante Adams, GB +15000

Odds as of October 4th from FanDuel


Kyler Murray staked his claim to top spot following Week 4, and remains the only undefeated QB on the list. The Chiefs’ disappointing start has led to a freefall down the odds for Mahomes. He entered the season alone at the top of the 2021 NFL MVP Odds and for good reason.

While it is predominantly a QB award, there are two non-signal callers that looks to have staying power. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb.

Henry has been floating around the bottom of the table for a bit, ranging from +5000 to +8000. Chubb’s odds have seen a bit more fluctuation, but their weekly 100-yard games are impossible to ignore.

Allen, Mahomes Headline Sunday Night

We’ve been treated to plenty of high profile QB battles the last few weeks. In Week 3 Tom Brady took on Matthew Stafford. Then it was Stafford against Kyler Murray.

And even though Stafford was in the spotlight again against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on Thursday, all eyes were on Sunday Night Football.

Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes: Week 5

15/26 Comp/Att 33/54
57.7% Comp% 61.1%
350 Yards 272
3 TD 2
0 INT 2
23.3 Y/Comp 8.2
139.1 Rating 70.9

While Allen has stuck around in the MVP odds, it hasn’t exactly been a convincing performance. Especially considering Buffalo’s wins had come over Miami, Washington and Houston. That all changed Sunday.

Allen showed up in a big way, moving the pocket, hitting his receivers and going shot-for-shot with Mahomes. He also added 59 yards and a touchdown on the ground on 11 carries.

Mahomes has simply not lived up to his own standards in 2021. He’s now thrown an interception in four-straight games, logging six total. The Chiefs’ QB hasn’t had this much trouble with interceptions since his second year, when he threw seven over five games.

He also mixed in a lost fumble on Sunday.

Murray Remains Perfect

While it wasn’t Kyler Murray’s most electric performance against the 49ers, he got the job done. And, despite fumbling (but not losing them) twice, he avoided turning the ball over.

If you were looking for a knock on an otherwise pristine campaign so far, the turnovers would be it.

Notable Week 5 QB Performances

Team Comp/Att Yards TD INT Rushing Yards Rushing TD Rating
Tom Brady 30/41 411 5 0 13 0 144.4
Aaron Rodgers 27/39 344 2 1 0 0 102.9
Dak Prescott 22/32 302 3 1 6 0 116.9
Kyler Murray 22/31 239 1 0 1 0 104.1
Matthew Stafford 25/37 365 1 1 -1 0 97.2
Justin Herbert 26/43 398 4 0 29 1 122.0

There was a wealth of dynamic performances to choose from in Week 5. Tom Brady used Mike Evans and Antonio Brown to their full potential, shredding the hapless Dolphins. Aaron Rodgers racked up the yards on a surprisingly frisky Bengals team, and Dak Prescott continued to shine by beating up on the Giants.

LA’s Justin Herbert was deified on Monday Night Football to wrap Week 4, but at this point it looks pretty warranted. Sunday was his third-straight game of three or more touchdowns, and he’s gone over 280 yards in four of five games.

The only player to really hurt his cause, and it’s through no fault of his own, is Russell Wilson. Wilson said he’s hoping to make it back from his finger injury in Week 10. For Seattle that’s good news because it’s only three games plus their bye week. But in the MVP race, it nullifies his chances.

RBs Lurking, Prescott Picks His Spot

If Chubb or Henry are going to carry their teams on their backs like this all season long and you believe in them, then invest. We’ve reached the quarter mark of the season, so this is likely the lowest their odds will be without being entirely out of the race.

But they’d have to do something truly special, which is why it’s smart to stick with the QBs.

There’s two reasons to like Prescott this week. There is zero doubt with how the Cowboys finished 2020 how important Dak is to the team in 2021. The only other QB that can make a similar argument is Stafford with the Rams.

And the second? His upcoming schedule is just tough enough with the Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Falcons and Chiefs, that he can rack up wins, and numbers, without heavy detraction.

The Pick: Dak Prescott (+600)

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