- The Arizona Cardinals are in Cleveland to visit the Browns in Week 6
- Last week’s prop picks: 3-1. Overall: 10-10, +0.095 units
- See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets below
We’re back to .500, and we’re in the black. Kudos to you, Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Appreciate it.
After hitting three out of four last week, we’re trying to find a nice consistency in continuing to stack W’s.
And there’s an opportunity for some fireworks in the ‘Land, as the Arizona Cardinals, the last undefeated team in the NFL, visits the 3-2 Browns.
Some late-breaking news should shuffle the deck a little bit, as leading rusher Nick Chubb (calf) will sit for the Browns. For the Cards, head coach Kliff Kingsbury and star edge rusher Chandler Jones are both out due to COVID protocols.
You can get set for the game with a preview here. For us, let’s list our favorite prop bets this week.
Cardinals vs Browns Player Props
|Passer||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Baker Mayfield (CLE)||20.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||233.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)|
|Kyler Murray (ARI)||22.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100)||258.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -140 / Un +105)|
|Rusher||Rushing Yards||Rush + Rec Yards||Longest Rush|
|Baker Mayfield (CLE)||10.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||OFF||OFF|
|James Conner (ARI)||39.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||48.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||10.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Kareem Hunt (CLE)||87.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||113.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||18.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Kyler Murray (ARI)||26.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||OFF||11.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Receiver||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|AJ Green (ARI)||3.5 (Ov +110 / Un -150)||38.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)||18.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Austin Hooper (CLE)||2.5 (Ov +115 / Un -155)||22.5 (Ov +100 / Un -130)||18.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Christian Kirk (ARI)||3.5 (Ov +105 / Un -140)||41.5 (Ov +100 / Un -130)||19.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|David Njoku (CLE)||2.5 (Ov +115 / Un -155)||22.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||14.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)|
|DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)||5.5 (Ov -155 / Un +115)||72.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||24.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|James Conner (ARI)||OFF||5.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||OFF|
|Kareem Hunt (CLE)||3.5 (Ov +105 / Un -140)||22.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||11.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Odell Beckham Jr (CLE)||3.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||47.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||20.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
Odds taken Oct 16 from DraftKingsAdvertising Disclosure
Baker Mayfield was the only L on our card last week, and it wasn’t even close. The top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft had himself a day in a wild 47-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers. He was 23-for-32 for 305 yards and a pair of TD tosses.
— NFL (@NFL) October 10, 2021
Mayfield seems to rise to the big game occasion. His only two 300+ yard performances this year are against the Chiefs and Chargers, and he also topped his Week 6 projected passing total one other time, in Week 3 against the Bears.
With Chubb out, there’s a good chance Kevin Stefanski also diversifies his attack, as Kareem Hunt is such a dual threat out of the backfield and able to make big plays on short passes.
In a game that is expected to again wear out the scoreboard bulbs, Mayfield has to spin to keep the Browns in it.
- Mayfield OVER 233.5 passing yards (1 unit to win 0.87 units)
Collect on Conner
It’s been a nice bounce back season so far for Steelers’ castoff James Conner. He’s found himself as the Cards’ go-to short down and red-zone option and he’s delivered. That doesn’t mean he’s going back to the large volume, primary back action he saw early on in Pittsburgh.
James Conner with the TD, after the fumble recovery from Budda Baker! 🙌🙌🙌pic.twitter.com/zqULywn0AJ
— Cardinals Nation (@CardsNationCP) October 3, 2021
He’s putting up just 3.2 yards per carry, and he’s up against a Browns’ run defense that ranks second in the NFL, giving up just 75.6 yards per contest.
Conversely, he may prove to be a winner for you as a check down option for Kyler Murray against a pass rush that features Myles Garrett. Even though Conner only has four catches in three games, he’s gone over that tiny receiving yards total in each.
Take a double dip on him here.
- Conner OVER 5.5 receiving yards (1 unit to win 0.83 units)
- Conner UNDER 39.5 yards rushing (0.5 units to win 0.435 units)
Get Well With Odell
Here’s one where the numbers are telling you one thing, but you’re waiting for the breakthrough. I think this is the week for Odell Beckham Jr.
I don’t think he’s going bonkers, but after a week where the Browns put up 42 points and he tallied just two catches for 20 yards, a lot of chatter emerged postgame, with the public and pundits asking why Cleveland’s big-play guy isn’t even a consideration on offense.
"I think Odell Beckham Jr. needs to BEG to be traded."
— First Take (@FirstTake) October 13, 2021
Since his season debut in Week 3, OBJ has nine catches on the year, including just two in back-to-back games.
If even to just quell this one controversy in what’s been a pretty good season for the Browns, look for them to get Beckham involved.
- Beckham Jr OVER 3.5 receptions (0.5 unit to win 0.435 units)
Browns vs Chargers Scoring Props
|Player||First Touchdown Scorer||Anytime Touchdown Scorer|
|Kareem Hunt (CLE)||+500||-155|
|DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)||+850||+130|
Odell Beckham Jr (CLE)
Demetric Felton (CLE)
|Chase Edmonds (ARI)||+1000||+160|
|James Conner (ARI)||+1100||+180|
|Kyler Murray (ARI)||+1100||+165|
|AJ Green (ARI)||+1500||+260|
|Austin Hooper (CLE)||+1500||+270|
|Rashard Higgins (CLE)||+1600||+310|
|David Njoku (CLE)||+1700||+300|
Odds taken Oct 16 from FanDuel
Let’s hunt some value here. Going with Kareem Hunt (-155) is not a bad choice. He’s scored TD’s in three straight games for the Browns, and he’s their top red zone option, even with a healthy Chubb in the lineup.
Kareem Hunt TD!! This game is INSANE.
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 10, 2021
If you’re looking for value, it’s hard to not take Connor at that +180 figure, considering he’s hit paydirt in three straight games, a total of five times. For that reason, we’ll roll the dice and opt for him over Hunt.
- Pick: Conner to score anytime TD (1 unit to win 1.8 units)