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Cardinals vs Browns Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Oct 16, 2021 · 8:55 AM PDT

Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray exchange jerseys
FILE - In this Dec. 15, 2019, file photo, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) greets Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield after an NFL football game in Glendale, Ariz. Back-to-back Heisman Trophies at Oklahoma followed, then No. 1 overall draft picks and now NFL fame as starting quarterbacks, Murray and Mayfield are forever linked. On Sunday, their close friendship gets put on hold. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri, File)
  • The Cleveland Browns are 3-point home favorites over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6 (Sunday, October 17th, 4:05 pm ET)
  • Arizona is the last remaining undefeated team at 5-0, while Cleveland has won three of its last four
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Believe it or not, he Arizona Cardinals are the last undefeated team standing. Kyler Murray and Co. will put their 5-0 record on the line in Week 6 (October 17th) against the 3-2 Cleveland Browns, but will do so without their head coach. News broke Friday night that Kliff Kingsbury won’t be with the team after testing positive for COVID.

Arizona is fresh off a 7-point home victory over San Francisco last Sunday, while Cleveland fell 47-42 to the LA Chargers, in arguably the most exciting game of the Week 5 slate.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 pm ET on Sunday at FirstEnergy Stadium, with Fox providing the TV coverage. The forecast currently calls for a chance of showers and 27 mph wind gusts.

Cardinals vs Browns Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Arizona Cardinals +150 +3 (-105) O 49.5 (-110)
Cleveland Browns -170 -3 (-115) U 49.5 (-110)

Odds as of  Oct. 15th at FanDuel.

Despite their unblemished record, the Cardinals opened up as 3-point underdogs, and that’s where the line still sits at most online sportsbooks, although +3.5 is available if you shop around. The contest features a total of 49.5, and so far the betting action on both the spread and over/under has been very lopsided.

Per our NFL public betting trends, 75% of the ATS wagers are backing Arizona, while 82% of the total bets are on the over.

Kyler is King Right Now

A quick look at the current MVP odds sees Murray neck and neck with Buffalo’s Josh Allen. The 2019 first overall pick has racked up 1,512 yards and 10 TD through the air so far, while chipping in 110 yards and 3 TD on the ground.

He’s coming off his lowest output of the season in Week 5 versus San Fran, posting just 239 passing yards and a single rushing yard. The matchup on Sunday looks favorable on paper, but looks can be deceiving.

Cleveland was shredded to the tune of 398 yards and 4 TD by Justin Herbert last week, but was missing a key part of its pass rush. Jadeveon Clowney sat out versus LA and his absence was severely felt.

The Browns posted their worst pass rushing grade of the season without him, but things are looking up for Week 6. Clowney is expected to play while the Cards will be missing stud center Rodney Hudson.

If there’s one way to slow down Kyler, it’s through consistent pressure. Murray’s completion rate drops from 80% when kept clean, to 57% when under duress, and he has held in check last week by the Niners stout D-line. Also working against Murray this week is a shoulder injury. He was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and while it won’t keep him from playing, he’ll likely be operating at less than 100%.

Browns Built to Run

Speaking of shoulder injuries, Murray’s former Oklahoma teammate Baker Mayfield is nursing a torn labrum in his left shoulder, but it only ever seems to be an issue when he’s underachieving. Mayfield will continue to play through the injury, but Cleveland would much rather keep the ball on the ground.

The Browns two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have helped Cleveland average a league-high 187.6 rushing yards per game, and Arizona’s weakness just happens to be versus the run. The Cards boast Pro Football Focus’ second lowest rush defense grade, and have coughed up 139 rushing yards per game so far.

Chubb is dealing with a calf injury and was ruled out on Friday, but Cleveland backers need not worry. Hunt is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt.

Arizona is far better at defending the pass, however they’ll be shorthanded on that side of the ball as well. Chandler Jones, PFF’s fifth highest graded edge rusher is out, elevating Mayfield’s outlook.

Cardinals vs Browns Head-to-Head Results

Date Location Outcome
Dec. 15, 2019 Arizona Cardinals 35 Browns 24
Nov. 1, 2015 Cleveland Cardinals 34 Browns 20
Dec. 18, 2011 Arizona Cardinals 20 Browns 17

Cardinals vs Browns Pick

With key injuries on both teams and the potential for wind to wreak havoc on the passing game, under 49.5 is the way to bet this matchup.

Both the Cards and Browns rank top-11 in scoring defense, and Cleveland games especially tend to lean under when the Browns are favored. Each of the last two times the Browns have been in positive game scripts the contest has come in drastically under the total. As a 3-to-3.5 point favorite in this matchup we should see a run heavy approach that will keep the ball in their control and bleed the clock.

Arizona meanwhile, has seen three of its five 2021 games fall under the total, including two of three on the road. Since Murray joined the team in 2019, 73.7% of the Cards road contests have gone under.

Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)

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