Bears’ Odds to Win 2021 Super Bowl Unchanged After Trading for Foles
- The Chicago Bears acquired Nick Foles from Jacksonville for a fourth-round pick
- It’s unclear whether the former Super Bowl MVP will be named the starter or if he’ll need to steal the job from Mitch Trubisky
- Regardless, the Bears’ odds of lifting the Lombardi Trophy haven’t moved after the trade
A talented roster with a notably glaring weakness under center, the Chicago Bears were floated as a possible destination for most quarterbacks on the move this offseason. But after Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater all found new homes yesterday, the Bears finally landed their guy this morning.
TRADE: Chicago Bears trading for Jaguars QB Nick Foles. (via @MikeGarafolo) pic.twitter.com/vHMxcFoU9m
— NFL (@NFL) March 18, 2020
Well-endowed Nick (a term used here to describe his contract and not his … you know) is supposed to bring a base level of competence to the Bears infuriating offense, but so far sportsbooks are unimpressed by the addition; Chicago’s Super Bowl odds remain unchanged.
Super Bowl 55 Odds
| Team | Odds on March 16 | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | +500 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +750 | +650 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +750 | +750 |
| New Orleans Saints | +1200 | +1100 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +4500 | +1200 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1600 | +1800 |
| New England Patriots | +1200 | +1800 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1600 | +1800 |
| Buffalo Bills | +2800 | +1800 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2000 | +2000 |
| … | … | … |
| Chicago Bears | +3500 | +3500 |
Odds from March 18.
With Foles in the fold, is now the time to jump on Chicago?
Can Foles Be The Answer Under Center?
This year was the first time in a decade that Chicago was awarded a compensatory draft pick, which go to teams that lose more than they gain via free agency. Since spending gobs of money on mediocre players has been the Bears m.o., of course they dealt that compensatory pick for an absurdly large contract no one else was looking to take on.
The Bears will inherit the final three-years of Nick Foles' deal, which pays a base value of $50M. He slots in as their starter.
The Jaguars will take on a dead cap charge of $18.75M for 2020, while stockpiling another draft pick as they go through a franchise transition.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) March 18, 2020
No amount of money is too much if the move works, but Foles is hardly a sure thing at quarterback. For all his playoff success with the Eagles, he’s never started more than 11 games in a season and never looked great outside of Philly. However, head coach Matt Nagy has worked with Foles in the past, as has offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, so Chicago’s brass must be optimistic that Foles can at least push Mitch Trubisky to progress, if nothing else.
What the Bears offense needs entering this season is confidence. They need a QB who can make quick decisions, who gets what Nagy’s offense is trying to do, and who can throw it away when plays aren’t there: they need some Big Nick energy.
This play really represents everything that is wrong with this Bears offense. On this RPO, the Bears offensive line appeared to open something up for David Montgomery.
Trubisky decided to keep it, but he had both Anthony Miller and Taylor Gabriel wide open. #Bears #Bears100 pic.twitter.com/OLW3yCYH5Y
— Dan DeYoung (@CoachDanDeYoung) October 21, 2019
Offensively, the Bears could still use some improvements along their line if they want to help a ground game that ranked 29th in efficiency. But if Foles can step in and find the seemingly always wide open Anthony Miller, then at least the offense can give this loaded defense some help.
Are the Bears Really a QB Away?
Chicago has spent most of this offseason trying to correct for mistakes of the past. The team signed Robert Quinn to replace Leonard Floyd, who never flourished rushing the passer opposite Khalil Mack. They’ve also brought in tight ends to help a position that has lacked any production under Nagy. Unfortunately, their signings were less than inspiring.
At 33, Jimmy Graham becomes the oldest player on the Bears. However, he has not missed a game since 2015.
In Green Bay last season, Graham had 38 catches for 447 yards and 3 touchdowns. That is more yards than every other Bears TE in 2019 combined. 🤷🏻♂️
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) March 16, 2020
Despite losing defensive coordinator Vic Fangio last year, the Monsters of the Midway still ranked 8th in defensive DVOA. Their high-end talent keeps them in games; where concerns start piling up for the Bears is their depth.
The loss of Akiem Hicks killed their ability to get to the quarterback in 2019 and one major injury could derail this squad again. Backup linebackers Nick Kwiatkoski and Kevin Pierre-Louis are both leaving after doing a great job filling in last season, as is lineman Nick Williams. They also have yet to find a safety to start next to All-Pro Eddie Jackson and a corner to play alongside Kyle Fuller.
Prince Amukamara was the Bears 4th most valuable player in 2019 per PFF WAR
— PFF (@PFF) February 21, 2020
Are the Bears Good Value at +3500?
With the expanded playoff field in 2020, Chicago appears to be one competent QB away from the playoffs, but they’re a lot farther from being a championship team due to their lack of depth. GM Ryan Pace hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt that he can fill in the team’s remaining holes with two only draft picks in the top 150 and little cap space.
Though the Bears +3500 odds are enticing, when you close your eyes, can you really imagine Foles or Trubisky lifting the Lombardi Trophy next February? Didn’t think so.
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
