- ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting Tom Brady will sign with Tampa Bay
- Bucs quietly had impressive statistical year on both sides of the ball
- Read below to see if TB12 makes TB a worthy Super Bowl wager
The football world has truly been turned on its head.
After Tom Brady announced via Instagram that his storied 20-year run with the New England Patriots was over, it’s being reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter Brady will be quarterbacking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And just like that — TB12 has TB a sudden betting darkhorse in the Super Bowl 55 odds.
Super Bowl 55 Odds
|Kansas City Chiefs||12-4||+650|
|San Francisco 49ers||13-3||+750|
|New Orleans Saints||13-3||+1200|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7-9||+1500|
|New England Patriots||12-4||+1600|
|Green Bay Packers||13-3||+1600|
Odds from March 17.
In an eventful offseason that hasn’t even actually kicked off yet officially, this news is still jarring even though it has been speculated on for a year. Can Brady take the Bucs to the promised land?
Bucs’ QB Situation Under Control
Talk about a massive upgrade at the pivot position. Bruce Arians was being driven into an early grave with every Jameis Winston poor decision. While Winston is a human highlight reel coming off a historic 30 TD pass / 30 interception campaign, with Brady they’ll get steady, heady football play at the game’s most important position.
Tom Brady has 5 times as many playoff wins, 6 times as many Super Bowl wins and 7 times as many 30-TD seasons as all the Buccaneers’ QBs in the team’s history.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 17, 2020
Brady has a career 1.8% interception rate, which covers an incredible 20 seasons. Winston was at 3.5% over the last four years.
He did have what many considered a down year, though he still passed for over 4,000 yards, threw 24 touchdowns to just eight picks, and completed 60.8% of his passes.
Tom Brady had an incredible 20-year run with New England ?
? 6x Super Bowl winner
? 4x Super Bowl MVP
? 3x Regular-Season MVP
? 2nd All-time pass yards
? 2nd All-time pass TD
? 1st All-time wins
? 14x Pro Bowl Selection pic.twitter.com/ktbLTGat7X
— ESPN (@espn) March 17, 2020
But the Patriots’ offense was skill-deprived, with Julian Edelman the only reliable target, and the team shuffled through game breakers like Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon, while Mohamed Sanu also didn’t pan out. They never did get a top-flight replacement for the retired Rob Gronkowski.
What’s Brady Working With?
Brady gets an instant upgrade at the skill spots, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both coming off 1,000-yard-plus receiving seasons, and a promising tight end in OJ Howard.
— Christopher Reiss (@ReissReport) December 8, 2019
Arians’ “no risk-it, no biscuit” offensive scheme would probably have worked better with Brady five years ago, but the 43-year-old should still be able to deliver a nice deep ball while being his usual accurate self underneath.
— Saints Daily (@SaintsDaily1) November 15, 2019
He’s going to be quarterbacking a unit that averaged nearly 400 yards a game (third in the NFL), while scoring a franchise-record 458 points, leading the league in both passing yards and plays of 20+ yards.
That’s the good news. The bad news is Winston was sacked a whopping 47 times last year, and they sported the 24th-ranked run game with a depressing 3.72 yards a carry (28th).
— Sunday Night Football (@SNFonNBC) October 27, 2019
Defensively it’s hard to imagine a 7-9 unit being a top-5 defense, but that’s exactly how they graded out, ranking fifth in defensive DVOA, climbing all the way from a cellar-dwelling 32nd a year prior.
There are pieces here to do damage.
What’s the Best Bet?
Brady has lived alongside the shadow of Bill Belichick’s wizardry, teaming up for nine Super Bowl trips and six ‘chips in 20 years. So, even at his advanced age and dearth of accomplishments, he has something to prove.
Probably one of my favorite Belichick & Brady moments game planning on how to play against Ed Reed. Preparation here is unreal! pic.twitter.com/muFfZGrY24
— Jaycob Ammerman (@Jammer2233) March 17, 2020
The most recent iconic comparison would be Peyton Manning parting ways with Indy, subsequently lighting the league on fire in his first three seasons in Denver and winning a chip (though by then he was a shell of his former self). But that’s probably why there’s been such a spike in Tampa Bay’s stock.
Tom Brady will play in Tampa.
This season’s Super Bowl is in Tampa.
No host city ever has had its home team play in the Super Bowl.
Tom Brady now aiming at more history.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 17, 2020
January’s first Super Bowl 55 lines came out and the Bucs were as long as +6600. They were still long at +4750 this week when it was rumored they offered Brady a contract upwards of $30 million a season. Suddenly, Tampa was cooking and shot through the field to +2000 in the same day.
The current figure at +1500 stands about right, and there’s value to make a wager now — and yes, I do understand they’re in the same division as New Orleans.
Still, if Tampa is all in — and this is the ultimate all-in move — expect other big name talents coming to round out the roster, and these might be the longest odds you’ll see for TB12 and the Bucs this season.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.