Forget Where Tom Brady Is Signing, You Can Actually Bet on Who Will Break the News
- Sportsbooks have odds on who will break Tom Brady’s next contract
- ESPN’s Adam Schefter and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport are the top two betting picks
- Read below to see who we think will be breaking the Brady news
In the realm of utter ridiculousness, not only can you wager on where you think forever Patriots’ QB Tom Brady might land as he wades into free agency for the first time in his career, you can also wager on what media person or entity will be the first with the details of his contract.
No, really.
Tom Brady Breaking News Odds
| Who will be the first to break Tom Brady’s next contract? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Adam Schefter | +110 |
| Ian Rapoport | +120 |
| Tom E. Curran | +650 |
| Reported Live During Press Conference | +750 |
| Tom Brady on Instagram | +1600 |
| Tom Brady on Facebook / Twitter | +1600 |
| Reported on First Take | +2500 |
| Reported on the Bill Simmons’ Podcast | +2500 |
| Julian Edelman | +3300 |
*Odds from March 10
With the Brady saga one of the biggest stories in the NFL this offseason, it’s not surprising the sport’s preeminent breaking news powerhouses — ESPN’s Adam Schefter and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport — are the favorites. But is there anyone else in the field that might be able to unseat them?
Let’s take a closer look at this board, and where your best wager lies.
Schefter and Rapoport are the Best
Much like Adrian Wojnarowski with his ‘Woj Bombs’ and Shams Charania with his ‘Sham Bombs’ in the NBA, no breaking NFL story feels right or official until Schefter or Rapoport confirm via Twitter. Very few reporters get to reach that sort of rarified air, as it’s an all-consuming gig, requiring a level of dedication and connection that takes years to build.
Schefter is the betting favorite likely because of a few big-name head-to-head wins over his competition. Even in the most recent breaking news — this one a mid-size signing of Austin Ekeler to the Chargers — Rapoport had to give credit where it was due.
The #Chargers and RB Austin Ekeler reach an agreement on a 4-year deal worth $24.5M with $15M in guarantees, source confirms (as @AdamSchefter reported). As Melvin Gordon is set to hit the market, LAC locks in their lead rusher from last year.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 6, 2020
The most notable encounter between the two happened last offseason in the early stages of the Antonio Brown saga. Rapoport broke news the Steelers and Bills were finalizing a deal in the wee hours of a Friday morning to send the mercurial wide receiver to Buffalo.
Sources: The #Steelers are closing in on a deal to send star WR Antonio Brown to the Buffalo #Bills. There it is.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 8, 2019
Not only did Schefter dunk on Rapoport, he stood over the rotting corpse, with a line so savage the Internet went bananas.
Another source on a potential Antonio Brown-to-Buffalo trade said it will not happen. “I don't think the Bills trade was ever close to happening,” said one source involved in those talks. Steelers snd Bills briefly talked but “this is an old story. It was dead on Wednesday.”
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 8, 2019
Schefter like pic.twitter.com/o5jpcIVBpR
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) March 8, 2019
The second incident happened inside the regular season, revolving around three moves on September 16: the first, a trade request from then-Jags corner Jalen Ramsey after a loss to the Houston Texans, followed by a Minkah Fitzpatrick trade out of Miami. The last was an injury report on Jets’ QB Trevor Simien. All stories were broken by Schefter, only for Rapoport to jump on Twitter literally a minute later to report the same news.
🐀
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) September 16, 2019
Chris Mortensen, long time ESPN NFL insider and Schefter’s colleague, didn’t take too kindly to what he saw, tweeting a rat emoji and tacking on another after each perceived snatching of news as his own.
Longshots to Consider
There is only one scenario where Schef or Rap isn’t breaking this, and that’s if Tom Brady keeps things as tight to the vest as he has so far. The only news coming out of his mouth recently has been the launch of his new production company.
tom brady announces production company launching in hollywood, 199 Productions pic.twitter.com/JPBUfrsNgQ
— Savannah Taylor (@SavannahCayTay) March 9, 2020
Other than that, the active first ballot Hall-of-Famer has kept everyone guessing. There is rampant speculation, but its run the entire gauntlet: on any given day, you can find something new to read or talking heads in the know who have said everything from it being a slam dunk he stays to being stunned if he was back in New England.
Because of that, those middle of the board bets with Brady holding all the cards seem enticing.
What’s the Best Bet?
Because the contractual figures need to be reported for this wager to be realized and Brady’s camp being able to keep things tight lipped, there is great value in hearing the figures for the first time in his official team introductory press conference (+750), wherever that is.
However, this is a story for the heavy hitters, and the top newsmen in the NFL almost always deliver. If Schefter can’t break it, you know Rapoport is dying to have Schef tweet “@Rapsheet originally reported” on this one.
The pick: Schefter (+110)
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
