Sportsbooks Must Think Brady Is Going to Bucs – Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl Odds Listed at +2000

Buccaneers Stadium
Tampa has seen their SB odds significantly shorten - is Tom Brady coming to town? Photo from arctic_whirlwind (Flickr)
  • Tampa Bay’s average Super Bowl odds have been significantly shortened from +4750 to +2000 in just one day
  • The Bucs have reportedly offered the three-time MVP a contract worth $30 million a year
  • Would adding Brady make Tampa Bay a championship contender?

It’s been well over a decade since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a playoff contender but that could all change if Tom Brady lands in the sunshine state. The six-time Super Bowl champ said goodbye to New England on Tuesday and Tampa is one of his most likely destinations.

After the Tennessee Titans re-signed Ryan Tannehill, the Bucs became the favorites to land Brady, and now that sentiment is reflected in odds to win next year’s championship.

Super Bowl 55 Odds

Team Odds at Bovada
Kansas City Chiefs +550
San Francisco 49ers +750
Baltimore Ravens +750
New Orleans Saints +1300
Green Bay Packers +1600
Seattle Seahawks +1600
New England Patriots +1800
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2000
Philadelphia Eagles +2000
Buffalo Bills +2000

Odds taken on March 17th

Tampa Bay has reportedly offered Brady a contract believed to be worth $30 million a season. Their average championship price has been shortened from +4750 to +2000 in just one day. The Bucs’ Super Bowl 55 odds were as long as +6600 when they were first released in January, but now that Brady could be their new QB, they are a top eight contender.

Brady Coming Off Down Season

In 2017, Brady passed for 4,577 yards and 32 touchdowns en route to winning his third MVP award. The following season he led the Patriots to their sixth Super Bowl title. In 2019, however, he suffered a sharp decline in performance. He threw just 24 TDs, his fewest since 2006, and his 88.0 passer rating was his lowest since 2013.

Part of his decline could be attributed to his aging arm (Brady turns 43 in August), but the bigger issue was the lack of talent in New England. Brady showed little trust in any receiver not named Julian Edelman, and relied heavily on short passes to him and his running backs.

Joining the Bucs offense would be a huge upgrade as they are armed with a talented tight end and perhaps the best 1-2 wide receiver duo in the NFL.

Bucs Have Elite Skill Position Players

Both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans finished top 13 in the NFL in receiving yards last season, despite neither playing a full season. Godwin missed two games, while Evans sat out three, and yet both easily eclipsed the 1,000 yard plateau.

Brady hasn’t had two elite wide receivers at his disposal since the days of Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and the Bucs also possess a field stretching tight end that is just begging to be unleashed. OJ Howard is a freak athlete that was rarely targeted by Jameis Winston, but no one likes featuring that position more than Brady.

Not only is Tampa Bay loaded on offense, but their defense is sound as well. They finished sixth in yards per play allowed last season and have already committed to bringing back Pro Bowler Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul on the edge.

The Bucs are in total win now mode which suits Brady, who can’t afford to sign with a team that isn’t “all-in” on the 2020 season.

Tampa Bay is Best Fit

Another team rumoured to be in the Brady sweepstakes is the LA Chargers. The Bucs boast a superior offensive roster than LA, and Tampa’s aggressive coaching scheme should better fit what Brady wants. The Chargers are determined to run the ball first and Brady’s role wouldn’t be as significant in their offense.

He’s a good bet to maximize the Bucs offense should he land there, but that doesn’t mean they’ll compete for a Super Bowl. Like most NFL teams, they don’t belong in the same conversation as the Chiefs, Ravens and 49ers. In fact, they’ll be be an underdog to win their division even with Brady.

His arrival would make them a strong contender to make the playoffs (especially with the expanded format) but not worthy of a Super Bowl 55 wager at their new price.

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