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After Titans Extend Tannehill, Odds Heavily Favor Brady Signing with Bucs

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in NFL Football

Mar 16, 2020 · 9:12 AM PDT

Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) warms up before an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020, in Atlanta. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 31-27. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
  • Ryan Tannehill re-signed to a four-year $118 million deal
  • Buccanneers now the odds-on favorite to sign Tom Brady
  • Would Tampa Bay be a contender if they sign Brady?

NFL free agency officially opens at 4:00 pm. EST on Wednesday, March 18, and the big question is where will Tom Brady sign?

On Sunday, the Tennessee Titans fell out of the running as they re-signed Ryan Tannehill to a four-year $118 million dollar contract after he helped the Titans make the playoffs. With Tennessee out of the picture, odds have now been released where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the odds-on favorite to sign Tom Brady. It is also the first time the Patriots aren’t the favorites to bring back the future Hall of Famer.

Odds Where Tom Brady Signs

Team Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -150
New England Patriots +110
Los Angeles Chargers +600
San Francisco 49ers +1000
Las Vegas Raiders +1200
Indianapolis Colts +1800
Chicago Bears +5000
Dallas Cowboys +5000
Miami Dolphins +5000

Odds taken March 16

Are the Bucs a Good Fit for Brady?

The Tampa Bay Buccanneers are a good fit to sign Tom Brady for a couple of reasons.

First, the team has cap room as they have an estimated $80 million and would most likely pay Brady around $30 million. The Bucs also desperately need a quarterback, especially with Jameis Winston becoming a free agent and someone the team hasn’t been able to trust as he has turned the ball over a ton last year.

Not only would Brady become the franchise player for the Buccaneers but ESPN’s Dianna Russini reported that the team would give Brady control of the roster and bringing in players he wants. He had a problem in New England with the team not bringing him top-tier receivers to throw to.

Tampa Bay has top receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin who both had over 1,000 receiving yards last season. The only question mark is the offensive line that allowed 47 sacks last season, which is something Brady would no doubt want to be addressed.

Regardless, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a good fit.

Would the Buccaneers Become a Contender?

Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season but struggled at quarterback with Winston throwing 30 interceptions and had a disappointing -13 turnover ratio. The offense has the tools to have success, but the turnover was a major reason why they struggled and with Brady that would no doubt change.

The defense was average allowing an average of three touchdowns per game. Yet, if they go and sign Brady, that average would no doubt drop given there wouldn’t be as many turnovers that Winston threw. He often put the defense in bad positions, which Brady, with his ball control where he only threw eight interceptions last season wouldn’t happen as often.

The Buccaneers are also in a division featuring two teams in the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers who were under .500. With Brady, Tampa Bay would become a team that could threaten the New Orleans Saints for the division or at worst be a wild card team. So, there is no doubt, the Bucs would be a playoff team if they sign Brady.

Where’s the Value?

It is surprising to see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the odds-on favorite. When the season ended, the speculation and the odds favored Brady re-signing with the New England Patriots. Yet, as of all the recent reports and seeing the odds dropping from -150 to +110 in just two weeks shows that it is likely to see Brady leave. Tampa Bay also was +1200 at that same time, so the oddsmakers seem to know something.

Right now, just days before free agency, I think the value is on Tom Brady signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as I suspect the line will be around -200 when free agency opens on Wednesday.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-150)

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