Best Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Same-Game Parlay for SNF
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: March 16, 2023 at 2:16 pm EDTPublished:
- See the three-leg Chiefs vs Buccaneers same-game parlay that would pay out at +550 odds if it hits on Sunday Night Football
- Can the Chiefs pull off the upset? How many passing yards will Patrick Mahomes have?
- See the picks for the Chiefs vs Buccaneers same-game parlay on SNF in Week 4
The Chiefs (2-1, 0-1 away) versus Buccaneers (2-1, 0-1 home) Sunday Night Football matchup doesn’t look nearly as enticing now as it did before the season started.
Both teams enter play fresh off a loss, and neither has looked like a true Super Bowl contender. One of them is about to drop to .500 on the season, barring a tie, and bettors believe that will be Tampa Bay.
A massive 77% of the ATS bets in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers public betting splits are on KC, as is 79% of the ATS money. We’re believing the hype, and are looking to back them in our SNF same-game parlay.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Same-Game Parlay SNF Picks
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline | +100 |
| Patrick Mahomes Over 254.5 Passing Yards | -145 |
| Tom Brady Under 279.5 Passing Yards | -135 |
| PARLAY ODDS | +550 |
Odds as of October 2nd at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings promo code.
This Kansas City-Tampa Bay same-game parlay features just three legs, but still offers juicy +550 odds. As an added bonus this week, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering up to a 100% profit boost on any same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football.
Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline
Kansas City is currently a 1-point underdog on SNF. The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS as ‘dogs in the Mahomes era, winning outright five times. Mahomes has lost only 13 career regular season starts, and is 10-3 straight up in games following a loss.
Tampa Bay’s offense meanwhile, is broken. They’ve produced fewer touchdowns (3) than turnovers (4), and are dealing with major injuries to their starting receivers, as noted in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers injury report. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are expected to return after two-game absences, but it’s fair to question how effective they’ll be after hardly practicing over the last two weeks.
Tom Brady after dealing with this group of receivers pic.twitter.com/rZ25iKQtki
— TB EGO ✖️ (@TomBradyEgo) September 25, 2022
This will be a rematch of Super Bowl 55, a game Tampa Bay dominated 31-9. A big reason for their success that night was their pass rush, but we shouldn’t expect them to be all over Mahomes like they were two years ago. KC has completely revamped their offensive line since then, and graded out as the second best o-line prior to the start of the season. They’ve allowed just two sacks through three games, while Mahomes has absorbed only seven hits.
Patrick Mahomes Over 254.5 Passing Yards
Seven. That’s the number of times Mahomes has been held below 254 passing yards over the past two-plus seasons, including playoffs. The Chiefs do not stand a chance in this game, or any game versus a quality opponent, without a strong outing from Mahomes, and he’ll be out for serious redemption after what the Bucs did to him the last time they met.
Historically, Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 following a loss in his career 📊 pic.twitter.com/SYM1n0Vp0M
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 29, 2022
If we’re on KC to pull off the upset, just like the Chiefs vs Buccaneers picks suggest, we have to expect a big Mahomes game. KC ranks top-two in pass rate over expectation this season, and they’d be foolish to even try and run the ball against Tampa Bay. For one, the Buccaneers run defense is elite. They’re yielding just 63 rushing yards per game, at 3.8 yards per carry. The Chiefs meanwhile, rank fifth in yards per pass, but 20th in yards per run.
Tom Brady Under 279.5 Passing Yards
Forget the fact that Brady has yet to eclipse this number all season. Disregard that he’s only averaging 224 passing yards per game, or that he’s working with a depleted wideout corps. The real reason to fade Brady in this spot is due to the Chiefs improved pass rush.
Only San Francisco has generated pressure at a higher rate than KC this season, and if there’s one way to slow down Brady it’s by getting in his face. TB12 is completing 68% of his throws in a clean pocket this season, but that number dips to 46.7% when he’s pressured. He averages over 7 yards per attempt when the heat is off, but when he’s under duress that number falls to 3.3 yards.
Kenny Clark out here sacking Tom Brady with 1 hand…
P.S. RIP to the Bucs LG. pic.twitter.com/SzIO49wbsq
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) September 27, 2022
Brady has been sacked 11 times already, and plays behind an offensive line that ranks in the bottom-10 in pass blocking per Pro Football Focus. To make matters worse, Tampa Bay is on their third center already, while starting left tackle Donovan Smith will play, but is also banged up.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
