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NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Chiefs vs Buccaneers SNF

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Oct 2, 2022 · 12:03 PM PDT

Tom Brady runs versus the Packers
Sep 25, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) runs with the ball against the Green Bay Packers in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are drawing 73% of the ATS bets and 70% of the ATS handle in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers public betting trends for Sunday Night Football in Week 4
  • 66% of the total bets are backing the over, but the total has moved down from 48 to 46.5 points since opening lines were released
  • See all the Chiefs vs Buccaneers public betting trends and money percentages for SNF in the story below

The marquee matchup of the Week 4 slate takes place tonight on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs (2-1, 0-1 away) travel to Tampa to face the Buccaneers (2-1, 0-1 home) in a rematch of Super Bowl 55. Anytime you get Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady on the football field at the same time the betting action is going to be off the charts.

Tonight’s contest will likely draw the most money of any of Sunday’s games, and as of this afternoon, the action is very one sided: Kansas City is garnering the majority of the tickets and money to cover the spread in the NFL public betting trends as short road underdogs.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Betting Splits

Game Spread ATS Handle % ATS Bet % Total O/U Handle % O/U Bet % Moneyline ML Handle % ML Bet %
Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 70% 73% O 46.5 60% 66% +105 56% 67%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 30% 27% U 46.5 40% 34% -125 44% 33%

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The Chiefs are currently 1.5-point underdogs, after opening as 1.5-point favorites. Early money this week was on Tampa Bay catching points, but that’s flipped now that they’re the favorites.

 

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Chiefs vs Buccaneers Betting Splits Against the Spread

A massive 77% of the ATS tickets are now on KC, as is 70% of the money that’s been bet against the spread. The Chiefs have only been underdogs nine times with Patrick Mahomes under center, and wound up covering in six of those matchups.

What’s interesting is that on Saturday night, the line was Bucs -1. Despite the majority of the betting action coming in on KC, the line has moved in Tampa Bay’s favor. A big reason why could the positive news in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers injury report. Tampa Bay was forced to play without Mike Evans (suspension), Julio Jones (knee), and Chris Godwin (hamstring) in Week 3, but it now looks like all three will suit up on SNF.

Both Jones and Godwin have missed the last two contests, and Brady has been lost without them. He’s thrown for an average of only 201 yards per game, while the offense has produced just 32 total points.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Total Betting Splits

The over/under for this contest opened up at 48, but steady sharp money on the under pushed it down to 46.5. That’s where it currently sits, and we shouldn’t expect it to move any higher despite 66% of the total tickets backing the over. That’s because 40% of the over/under money is coming from just 34% of the tickets placed on the total. Anytime the handle is higher than the percentage of tickets, it typically means big money bettors are betting that side.

The Buccaneers lead the NFL in points allowed, while ranking 24th in points per game. KC on the other hand, put up 44 points in Week 1, but has scored just 44 points total since.

Kansas City vs Tampa Bay Moneyline Splits

The Chiefs are drawing 67% of the moneyline tickets and 56% of the moneyline handle. This is a classic sharps versus squares situation. The pros see value on Tampa Bay, while the public can’t believe they can bet on Mahomes as an underdog.

In the public’s defense, Mahomes has made doubters pay in the past. He’s won five of the nine games in which he’s been a ‘dog, and KC has a major advantage in the coaching department. If they’re going to pull off the upset, a big game from Mahomes will be a necessity, as outlined in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers picks.

It’s also worth noting that KC’s pass rush could give Brady fits. The Chiefs are generating the second highest pressure rate in the NFL, while Brady is completing just 46% of his passes under duress this season, at 3.3 yards per attempt. His over/under in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers player props sits at 279.5, a number you should think twice about before betting on the over.

 

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