Upcoming Match-ups

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for SNF Week 4

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Oct 2, 2022 · 10:00 AM PDT

Patrick Mahomes about to throw pass
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) draws back for a pass Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, during a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs square off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on SNF
  • Get the over/under odds for Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Travis Kelce and others
  • A look at some of the Chiefs vs Bucs player props can be found below with predictions

We barely survived last week’s SNF slugfest between the 49ers and Broncos — a Melvin Gordon III TD salvaging a split and keeping us in the black.

To close out Sunday’s games in Week 4, we’ve got a rematch of the Super Bowl 55, and two teams contending at the top of the 2023 Super Bowl odds.

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs are coming off their first losses of the season. Throw in the recent title tilt, and there should be plenty of juice in this matchup.

It all gets underway from Raymond James Stadium tonight at 8:20pm ET, in a game you can see live on NBC.

Check our game preview for our best betting advice. For our purposes, let’s get into the NFL player props and a few of our favorite picks.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Player Props

Passer Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 25.5 (O -145 | U +100) 262.5 (O -115 | U -115) 1.5 (O -185 | U +140)
Tom Brady (TB) 25.5 (O +100 | U -135) 270.5 (O -110) | U -120) 1.5 (O -160 | U +120)
Rusher Rushing Attempts Rushing Yards Rush + Rec Yards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 9.5 (O -115) | U -115) 35.5 (O -115) | U -115) 56.5 (O -115) | U -115)
Jerick McKinnon (KC) OFF 17.5 (O -130 | U -105) 35.5 (O -115) | U -115)
Leonard Fournette (TB) 15.5 (O -125 | U -105) 56.5 (O +100 | U -130) 95.5 (O -115) | U -115)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) OFF 15.5 (O -120 | U -110) OFF
Tom Brady (TB) OFF 0.5 (O +105) | U -135) OFF
Receiver Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Cameron Brate (TB) OFF 21.5 (O -115 | U -115) 12.5 (O -120 | U -110)
Chris Godwin (TB) 4.5 (O +125 | U -165) 41.5 (O -115 | U -115) 17.5 (O -120 | U -110)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 3.5 (O +145 | U -195) 17.5 (O -110 | U -120) 9.5 (O -125 | U -105)
Jerick McKinnon (KC) 2.5 (O +125 | U -165) 14.5 (O -105 | U -125) 9.5 (O -115 | U -115)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) 5.5 (O +120 | U -160) 51.5 (O -115 | U -115) 18.5 (O -125 | U -105)
Julio Jones (TB) 2.5 (O -130| U +100) 30.5 (O -115 | U -115) 17.5 (O -105 | U -125)
Justin Watson (KC) OFF 5.5 (O -115 | U -115) OFF
Leonard Fournette (TB) 4.5 (O +125 | U -165) 25.5 (O -110 | U -120) 12.5 (O -105 | U -125)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC) 3.5 (O +100 | U -130) 38.5 (O -115 | U -115) 18.5 (O -120 | U -110)
Mecole Hardman (KC) 2.5 (O -160 | U +120) 25.5 (O -115 | U -115) 13.5 (O -125 | U -110)
Mike Evans (TB) 5.5 (O +110 | U -150) 69.5 (O -120 | U -110) 24.5 (O -120 | U -110)
Noah Gray (KC) OFF 7.5 (O -115 | U -115) OFF
Russell Gage (TB) 3.5 (O -150 | U +110) 38.5 (O -115 | U -115) 17.5 (O -105 | U -125)
Travis Kelce (KC) 6.5 (O +110 | U -145) 68.5 (O -115 | U -115) 21.5 (O -110 | U -120)

Odds as of October 2 at DraftKings Sportsbook

In the odds above, both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are favored to throw for better than two touchdowns.

The highest rushing total goes to Leonard Fournette at 56.5 yards, and the highest receiving total is Bucs’ pass-catcher Mike Evans at 69.5 yards.

Prop #1: Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards

After lighting up the Arizona Cardinals to open the season, Mahomes has fallen under this total in his last two games, throwing for 235 yards to the Chargers and 262 in a loss to the Colts.

The Bucs present a different situation though, as they possess one of the elite run defenses in the NFL. They are one of four teams to hold the opposition to under 100 yards rushing per game, and they are a top-10 unit in yards per carry allowed at 3.8.

KC will still try to strike some kind of balance, but their success will likely come from Mahomes chucking it all over the field.

In Super Bowl 55, even under siege, he still managed to pass this total with 270 yards. In his only other career matchup with the Bucs, Mahomes shredded them for 462 yards passing and three TD’s.

Pick: Mahomes OVER 262.5 passing yards receptions (-115); 1.5 units to win 1.31 units

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Prop #2: Fournette Rush Yards & Edwards-Helaire Carries

Fournette had his worst output of the season in Tampa’s 14-12 loss to Green Bay, logging just 12 carries for 35 yards. In their two wins, he had carried over 20 times and crossed this line both times.

The Chiefs have been pretty solid in pass defense, giving up just 5.5 yards per pass, which ranks 6th-best in the league. Couple that with an ailing receiving group — that does have Mike Evans back — and striking a nice pass-run balance will be key. At plus-odds, it’s a no-brainer.

As for CEH, who’s in a timeshare with veteran Jerick McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco, this seems like an unusually high carry figure. In three games this season, Edwards-Helaire has yet to carry nine times, and now we’re expecting the Chiefs to give him 10 for you to cash in?

It’s actually seven straight games the Chiefs’ back has gone under 10 totes. He did manage 11 carries against the Bucs in the regular season meeting in 2020, and was limited to nine in the Super Bowl.

  • Pick: Fournette OVER 56.5 yards rushing (+100); 1 units to win 1 unit
  • Pick: Edwards-Helaire UNDER 9.5 rushing attempts (-115); 1 unit to win 0.87units

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Scoring Props

Player Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Leonard Fournette (TB) +600 -115
Travis Kelce (KC) +650 +100
Mike Evans (TB) +750 +115
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) +900 +135
Chris Godwin (TB) +1000 +160
Julio Jones (TB) +1300 +210
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) +1300 +225
Russell Gage (TB) +1400 +230
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC) +1500 +245
Mecole Hardman (KC) +1600 +275
Jerick McKinnon (KC) +1900 +330

Chiefs vs Bucaneers Touchdown Scorer Odds

There’s a distinct possibility Travis Kelce finds the endzone. The Chiefs’ tight end has scored at least one major in eight of his last nine appearances. If you’re looking for extra juice, consider he’s scored KC’s first TD against their last three NFC opponents.

Edwards-Helaire may be down touches, but he’s scored a TD in each of his last four Sunday games.

On the home side, Mike Evans is back, and he’s Tom Brady’s top red zone target, with at least one score in five of his last six games.

Pick:

  • Kelce anytime TD scorer (+100); 1 units to win 1 unit
  • Kelce FIRST TD scorer (+650); 0.5 units to win 1.875 units
  • SNF Week 3 player prop bet record: 2-2; Overall: 7-5, +0.77 units

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