Week 1 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, September 11

• NFL player props for Week 1 have opened at online sportsbooks
• Ryan Metivier has highlighted seven NFL props to bet for Sunday
• See all the passing, rushing, and receiving lines, as well as touchdown odds below

With one game in the books to the 2022/23 NFL season, we move our attention to the rest of the NFL Week 1 card. Specifically to the NFL prop markets as we dive into the vast world of passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown props for Sunday.

Read on for our prop picks below for NFL Week 1, as well as all the lines for each set of NFL player props.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

All prop odds as of September 9

Only three quarterbacks have been lined at 2.5 in their passing touchdown odds for NFL props and they are Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Tom Brady.

DRAFTKINGS
SPORTSBOOK

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly + a No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

+ A NO SWEAT NBA SGP

GET PROMO

Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 1

1) Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-150); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

After Chiefs vs Cardinals, this Raiders vs Chargers game has the next highest total on Sunday at 52.5. If the final score comes anywhere near that, surely Carr, and likely both QBs will throw for at least two touchdowns. But Herbert’s total is listed at 2.5. Carr is the safer of the two options at just 1.5.

Last year’s regular season ended with these two teams playing into overtime in what eventually resulted in a 35-32 Raiders win. Carr was only 20/36 with 186 yards in that game, but he did hit the two TD mark, both of which went to Hunter Renfrow.

“I’m looking for Derek Carr to have the 2007-like breakout season we saw from Tom Brady when he got Randy Moss” pic.twitter.com/gQoHep875V

— Raider Nation Boston (@RaiderNationBOS) September 3, 2022

Carr only passed for two touchdowns once in his final nine games, but he started the season with multiple touchdown games in 7/9 games. Along with Renfrow, he’ll have a healthy Darren Waller at his disposal at tight end, as well as the addition of Davante Adams at wide receiver. Adams had 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns last season with Green Bay.

The man who could likely be in charge of keeping Adams in check would be cornerback JC Jackson. However, Jackson had offseason ankle surgery and looks set to miss out on Week 1.

NFL Rushing Props

Jonathan Taylor at 96.5 rushing yards, has the highest Over/Under total for his Week 1 NFL props. The Over is juiced to -130 odds.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 1

1) Aaron Jones Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (-110); risk 1 unit DraftKings Sportsbook

Let’s head to the NFC North for our rushing prop between the Packers and Vikings, where Green Bay are 1.5-point favorites.

The Packers are kicking off the post-Davante Adams era in Week 1 and those are big shoes to fill. Allen Lazard looked to be the most likely benefactor of the extra receptions to go around, however, he missed practice on Wednesday after being stepped on last week. He’s listed on the injury report with an ankle injury.

So where will the Packers’ offense come from on Sunday? In the air, it’s likely to be Randall Cobb and new signing Sammy Watkins. But with missing pieces and new faces, Aaron Rodgers may look to one of his most reliable options in Aaron Jones in the run game.

True or False? Aaron Jones & A.J. Dillion are a top 3 RB duo in the league. pic.twitter.com/DTJnPvjAwf

— DraftKings (@DraftKings) September 8, 2022

Jones will split time in the backfield with AJ Dhillon, as the two were nearly neck-and-neck in the rushing and receiving yards last season.

Jones had 799 yards on the ground on 171 attempts and four TDs. He caught 52 passes for 391 yards and six TDs as a receiver. That was actually fourth-best for team receiving yards after Adams, Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

If you want to bet Jones on the rushing yards NFL prop of 51.5, he went over the 50-yard mark in 9/15 regular season games last season.

But what may be the safer option is to bet on his attempts at 11.5. In 16 total games last season he went over that total nine times. With questions at receiver, Green Bay may lean on the run game and Jones.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

Excludes MA.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

BET NOW

NFL Receiving Props

Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson is listed with the highest receiving total at 80.5 yards with the odds listed at -115 for both the Over and Under.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 1

1) Adam Thielen Over 4.5 Receptions (+105); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

You need look no further than the graphic below that shows Adam Thielen’s recent success against the Greem Bay Packers. In his last game with the Pack last November, Minnesota won 34-31 and Thielen caught 8/10 passes for 82 yards and one touchdown.

#Vikings WR Adam Thielen’s last 2 games at home vs GB

🔹14 rec
🔹192 yards
🔹3 TD’s

pic.twitter.com/DvyAKpbrad

— Matt Anderson (@MattAnderson_8) September 7, 2022

In the 13 games Thielen played in the 2021/22 season he was targeted seven or more times in ten games. In eight of those 13 games he caught five or more passes.

Touchdown Props

The Colts are big road favorites in Houston and Jonathan Taylor is a massive favorite to score an anytime touchdown at -230 odds.

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

1. Adam Thielen anytime touchdown (+185), risk 0.30 units: If we’re backing Thielen to rack up the catches, then it makes sense to back him in our NFL player props to find the endzone as well. He’s got three TDs in his last three two games against the Packers. He found the endzone ten times in 13 games and in eight separate games.
2. Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown (-230), risk 1 unit: We’re not getting great value here on Taylor to score, so we’ll have to up our unit stake a little for touchdown scorers. Taylor lead the league in rushing yards last year, rushing for nearly 500 more yards than Nick Chubb who finished second. Taylor also led the league in rushing TDs with 18. He’ll face a Texans’ defense that ranked 31st in both rushing yards and touchdowns allowed last season.
3. Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (-140), risk 1 unit: The highest total on the board Sunday is the Chiefs vs Cardinals at 54 points. If that total comes anywhere near that, there will be a few Chiefs finding the endzone. Kelce finished just behind Tyreek Hill in receiving yards last year and tied for the team lead with 9 TDs. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are new additions, but Kelce, if he wasn’t already, is now Patrick Mahomes unquestioned most reliable target. The Cards have some injury concerns on defense with CB Trayvon Mullen out, and CB Byron Murhpy Jr questionable and DE JJ Watt also questionable.
4. Keenan Allen anytime touchdown (+115), risk 0.50 units: Another game with a big total is the Raiders and Chargers at 52.5. In the same vein, there should be several players finding the endzone. Allen had the most targets for the Chargers last season with 157, catching 106 passes for six touchdowns.