- Odds are out on how teams will fare in the 2020 season
- The Chiefs’ win total is set at 11.5 as Kansas City looks to defend their Super Bowl Title
- The odds favor San Francisco avoiding a Super Bowl hangover, with -130 odds to go Over 10.5 wins
With the Super Bowl behind us, the focus just immediately turns to next season. 2020 NFL Win totals are out for all 32 teams, and there is plenty of value to be found around the league, both good and bad.
We’ll start with the good.
Teams to Bet “Over” On
Atlanta: Over 8.5 (-115)
The Falcons had one of the worst starts in franchise history in 2019, and that meant that a lot of people stopped paying attention to this team in the second half of the season. Atlanta quietly won six of their last eight games and pulled off victories on the road against both New Orleans and San Fran down the stretch.
Matt Ryan threw six interceptions in the first three weeks of the season, then held it to just eight in the remaining 13 games. This is the trend all over the team. The Falcons had a tough start but regained their rhythm far too late in the season.
Arthur Blank chose to retain head coach Dan Quinn, in large part due to the way the season played out. A lot of fans weren’t happy, and Quinn isn’t an elite coach, but he’s regularly produced an at-least average product during his time in Atlanta (aside from 2019’s horrendous start), with a 53.8% winning percentage in five seasons. For the purposes of this prop, the Falcons keeping the status quo is actually a good thing.
Seattle: Over 9 (-105)
The “Under” is a popular pick here because Seattle played in a ton of close, one-possession games that could have easily gone the other way. The thinking, for many, is that the results will level out in 2020.
On the contrary, however, this team wins close games for a reason. That reason is that they have a guy at quarterback, Russell Wilson, who is top three in the league. Sure, there is some luck involved in a sport like football, but that’s not the entire equation. Wilson has regularly gone out and won his team games.
In only one season has a Wilson-led Seahawk team won fewer than double-digit games. In that season, 2017, they won nine. Through ups and downs, and complete roster overhauls, Wilson’s Seahawks are averaging 10.75 victories a year.
NYG: Over 6.5 (+100)
After being the most trashed draft pick since Donovan McNabb, Giants’ quarterback Daniel Jones went out and had a surprisingly good season. He racked up 3,027 yards through the air, while completing 61.9% of his throws and compiling a 24/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
A big part of this pick is the division that New York is in. Washington is bad, Dallas is average. and Philadelphia’s roster spends so much time out with injury. The Giants may not be good enough to win it and make the playoffs, but now a year into the Jones experiment with everyone on the same page moving forward, this team can certainly improve on their 2019 record by three wins and be a 7-9 squad.
Teams to Bet “Under” On
Green Bay: Under 9.5 (+100)
When it comes to teams that aren’t quite what the record says, the 2019 Packers may have been the epitome of that. They were a similar squad to Seattle in this right, but there are a couple of key differences.
The first is the blowouts. There were instances in 2019 in which Green Bay would just get completely manhandled. The Chargers did it to them in Week 9, and then the 49ers in Week 12. When the Packers got beat in 2019, they got beat badly.
The second is that Aaron Rodgers may have just had the worst season of his career—excluding the two injury-shortened seasons. He posted career-worst marks in completion percentage and QBR, second-worst marks in touchdowns, yards per attempt, and yards per completion, and third-worst marks in yards and passer rating.
San Fran: Under 10.5 (+100)
This pick is all about the Super Bowl hangover. Seemingly every time we leave a Super Bowl with the mentality of, “it’s too bad they lost, but they’re too good to not get back next year”, the losing team ends up not getting back. Often times, they even miss the playoffs.
The Falcons, after blowing that lead to New England, limped to a Wildcard loss at Philadelphia. The Rams, after losing a snoozer to the Patriots, went 9-7 last year and failed to even make the playoffs.
The 49ers have a great roster, but getting all the way there and losing a game that was very winnable can have a long-lasting effect on a team. San Francisco could be poised for a flat 2020 season.
New Orleans: Under 10 (+100)
This Saints team has gone deep into the playoffs in so many consecutive seasons, and they’ve been ousted from contention in such devastating fashion over and over again. That wears on a franchise.
Drew Brees is in his 40’s, and he missed a big chunk of last season on the shelf. He was down in yards per attempt and yards per completion when he was on the field. Around him, the running game and pass defense of the Saints has also dropped off (21st in pass touchdowns allowed and 20th in rush touchdowns allowed).
New Orleans has had a few great regular seasons in a row, and in 2020, they should fall back towards the mean.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.