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Bills Take Top Spot in 2022 NFL Power Rankings; Only One Team Ranked #1 Has Won the Super Bowl

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Aug 4, 2022 · 8:00 AM PDT

Bills #1 in NFL Power Rankings
Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula hugs his quarterback Josh Allen (17), right, during day six of the Buffalo Bills training camp at St John Fisher University in Rochester Saturday, July 30, 2022. Sd 073022 Bills Camp 1 Spts
  • The Buffalo Bills are sitting with the #1 ranking in the SBD against the spread NFL Power Rankings
  • Buffalo is also the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl this season
  • Only one team has won the Super Bowl after beginning the season at #1 in the NFL Power Rankings

The Buffalo Bills are #1 in the NFL Power Rankings. These Bills are also Super Bowl favorites.

Then why does this all seem to be adding up to bad news?

Supposedly, to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best. But what if you’re thought of as the best, only you keep getting beaten?

Four times in a row, the Bills lost in the Super Bowl. No other NFL team has ever done that. Three times, they did so as the #1 seed in the AFC.

Buffalo is the +600 chalk to win in the Super Bowl odds. Reinforcing the fact that the Bills are an NFL powerhouse, Buffalo is also situated #1 in the SBD against the spread NFL Power Rankings with a league-best rating of -85.

The SBD ATS NFL power rankings differ from traditional power rankings. They factor into the calculation both SBD editor-in-chief Matt McEwan’s NFL strength of schedule calculations, in combination with the +/- of the team’s total betting odds from the opening lines of every game for the 2022 season. This system is rooted in numbers and data and eliminates the element of pure speculation.

NFL Power Rankings Have Bills #1

History has not been kind to the Bills. Likewise, the NFL betting trends from the SBD ATS NFL Power Rankings are not traditionally kind to the #1-ranked team.

Only one squad started the year at #1 in this category and wound up the season clutching the Lombardi Trophy as Super Bowl champions. The good news for the Bills is that it was another AFC East club. It was the 2018 New England Patriots.

Two of the last three teams to garner the honor of preseason #1 in the ATS NFL Power Rankings – the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs and 2019 Patriots – didn’t even get as far as playing in the Super Bowl.

Considering the history of the Bills, from Scott Norwood’s wide right field goal at the end of Super Bowl 25, to Thurman Thomas misplacing his helmet at the start of Super Bowl 26, this is a franchise that’s been pursuing a happy ending more fervently than a certain NFL starting quarterback allegedly does.

Then again, considering their history, why should bettors believe that this year will be any different for Buffalo’s NFL team? Is it wise to be expecting Buffalo’s traditionally bad luck in big games will be doing a 180-degree turnaround in 2022?

Why Bills Can Beat the Odds & Win Super Bowl

Can these Bills be the team not to get Buffaloed in the postseason and bring Buffalo its first title since the 1965 AFL Championship? The pieces certainly seem to be in place.

Start with the offense. No NFL player figured in more touchdowns last season than Bills QB Josh Allen. He passed for 36 TDs and ran for another six scores. Buffalo was the NFL’s #1 scoring offense (28.4 points per game).

ATS NFL Power Rankings Trend

Team NFL ATS Power Ranking Super Bowl Odds
Buffalo Bills -85 +600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -77 +750
Los Angeles Rams -61 +1200
Green Bay Packers -56 +1100
Los Angeles Chargers -55 +1500
Kansas City Chiefs -53 +1100
Cincinnati Bengals -39 +2200
Baltimore Ravens -35.5 +2200
Indianapolis Colts -35 +2500
San Francisco 49ers -34 +1600
Denver Broncos -32 +1600
Philadelphia Eagles -28 +2800
Cleveland Browns -19.5 +2500
Dallas Cowboys -18.5 +2000
Las Vegas Raiders -7 +3000
Minnesota Vikings -6 +4000
Tennessee Titans -5.5 +3500
Miami Dolphins -3.5 +4000
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 +3500
New England Patriots +9 +4000
Washington Commanders +12 +8000
New Orleans Saints +12.5 +4000
Pittsburgh Steelers +39.5 +8000
New York Giants +40.5 +10000
Detroit Lions +49 +12500
Chicago Bears +50.5 +15000
Carolina Panthers +57 +12500
Seattle Seahawks +63 +15000
New York Jets +65 +12500
Jacksonville Jaguars +68.5 +12500
Houston Texans +86 +30000
Atlanta Falcons +90.5 +25000

Odds as of August 4 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim this Caesars Sportsbook promo code before betting

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Buffalo finished the NFL season with the league’s #1 total defense, allowing 272.76  yards per game. The Bills were also #1 in scoring defense (17.0 ppg allowed) and passing defense (163.0 ypg allowed). To that defense they added linebacker Von Miller, a two-time Super Bowl winner and past Super Bowl MVP.

The Bills also posted the NFL’s highest point differential (+194) and the widest average margin of victory (22.09 ppg). All 12 of Buffalo’s victories were recorded by double-digit margins.

Why Bills Won’t Win the Super Bowl

Should you be betting on Buffalo in NFL futures? Close only counts in horseshoes and it never counts for the Bills. Last season, Buffalo was 0-6 in games decided by one score. A team can’t count on blowing everybody out. Good teams win close games.

Buffalo’s defense also might not be as good as advertised. Last season, only six QBs that the Bills faced showed a QBR above 90.8, the league average. This season, they’ll be facing five of the top-10 rated QBs from last season.

Buffalo may be #1 in the NFL Power Rankings but when it comes to winning the Super Bowl, the Bills still aren’t the one.

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