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Bills vs Steelers Week 15 SNF Props: Duck Hunting Season For Bills Secondary

Nick Ferris

by Nick Ferris in NFL Football

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 3:19 PM PDT

Josh Allen rolling out to pass
Josh Allen and the Bills take on the Steelers Sunday night, in a battle of current AFC Wild Card holders. Photo by Erik Drost (Wikimedia) [CC License].
  • Current AFC wildcard Buffalo in Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers on SNF in Week 15
  • Will the Steelers magical run continue, led by a stellar defense and a undrafted Duck?
  • Another 2-1 week in Week 14 profited 2.57 units bringing my season total -10.41 units

Todd Gurley was able to exceed expectations thanks to some heavy usage in Week 14, giving me my fifth winning week in the last six. It hasn’t been pretty thanks to a three-week dry spell and an unwise Packer gamble, but the battle to get back to black numbers is alive and well.

Week 15 features two teams content on riding their solid defenses to an AFC playoff berth. The 9-4 Buffalo Bills will walk into Pittsburgh and attempt to put an end to “Duck” Hodges’ three-game win streak that has propelled the Steelers to an 8-5 record and owners of the AFC’s final wildcard spot.

Prop #1: Josh Allen Over/Under 30.5 Rushing Yards

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Odds
Over 30.5 -114
Under 30.5 -114

All odds taken Dec. 14

Josh Allen is certainly not the most accurate QB in the league, he certainly doesn’t have the mobility of a Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson, but what he does have is heart!


Allen is big enough, strong enough and tough enough to take on the NFL’s biggest defensive lineman and come out on top. In seven of his 13 starts this year he has eclipsed 30 yards rushing, averaging 7.3 runs per game for 33.8 yards. Before their loss to the Ravens last weeks, Allen had posted 155 rushing yards on 26 carries in the three games prior.

As the weather gets colder Allen steps up his run game. In his 2018 rookie season, Allen posted 8.2 carries for 75.4 yards for the month of December. With a playoff spot well within grasp Allen will lead the leagues fifth-best rushing attack with his country boy strength and will to win.

Pick: Josh Allen over 30.5 rushing yards (-114)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Devlin Hodges Over/Under 188.5 Passing Yards

Devlin Hodges Passing Yards Odds
Over 188.5 -114
Under 188.5 -114

What an underdog story. The Pittsburgh Steelers lost franchise QB Ben Roethlisberger way back in Week 2, then benched their backup Mason Rudolph due to ineffectiveness. They’re now led by undrafted long shot Devlin “Duck” Hodges the last two weeks. Hodges has made three starts for the Steelers, one coming back in Week 6 and has won them all.

Hodges has thrown for 132, 212 and 152 yards in his three starts while attempting 20, 21 and 19 passes in those games. That’s right: 3-0 averaging 20 attempts and 165 passing yards a game. Ball control and defense is what has the Steelers 7-1 in their last eight games, and from time to time, a little magic from their undrafted Duck.

The Steelers play host to the Bills’ third-ranked defense in the NFL, including including a stout third overall ranking in pass defense. They allow just 191.5 yards through the air per game to opponents. The Bills’ weak spot is their 14th-ranked run defense which lines up with how the Steelers want to play.

Buffalo Bills Pass Defense

Category League Rank
Opponents Pass Attempts Per Game 16th
Opponents Completion Percentage 8th
Opponents Pass Yards Per Game 3rd
Opponents Yards Per Attempt 3rd
Opponents Passing TDs Per Game 2nd
Opponents Passer Rating 3rd

The Steelers will be without wideout Juju Smith-Schuster after a injury setback this week and TE Vance MacDonald will miss the contest as he is still in concussion protocol. They do, however, get lead RB James Conner back after an extended absence.

Pick: Devlin Hodges under 188.5 passing yards (-114)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.75 units

Prop #3: Most First Downs

Most 1st Downs Odds
Buffalo -122
Pittsburgh -108

If you have read this far you probably know where I’m going with this one.

Buffalo averages 20.5 first downs per game, good for a tie for 17th in the NFL. The Steelers average 17.2 first downs per game, good for 29th in the league.

The Bills’ defense gives up 18.4 first downs per game, which ranks sixth best in the league, while Pittsburgh’s 19.5 has them tied for ninth.

Over the Steelers’ last three games (two started by Hodges and the third finished by him) the offense has mustered 19 first downs per game, with a high of only 20. This coming against subpar opponents in the Cardinals, Browns and Bengals – a far cry from the Ravens, Cowboys and Broncos who the Bills have faced the last three weeks.

Against much tougher defenses the Bills were able to put up 20 first downs per game, twice hitting 22.

The Bills offense ranks 20th in total yards. However, a strong ground game that ranks fifth in yards per game is the Bills’ calling card. The Steelers best offense is a great defense, as their offense ranks at or near the bottom of the league in every major statistical category, even with Hodges exceeding expectations.

Pick: Buffalo (-122)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.64 units

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