Upcoming Match-ups

Bills vs Saints Odds, Lines, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in NFL Football

Nov 24, 2021 · 1:00 PM PST

Bills vs Saints
New Orleans Saints' Trevor Siemian passes during the first half of an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
  • The Bills are 6.5-point road favorites over the Saints on Thanksgiving night
  • Betting record: 1-1 ML; 6-4 ATS; 1-0 O/U; +2,5 units
  • The matchup and odds can be found below along with a prediction

The Buffalo Bills look to end a long series skid when they visit the New Orleans Saints at 8:20 pm ET on Thursday night in a Thanksgiving prime time game at the Ceasar’s Superdome.

The Bills have lost five straight games to the Saints and haven’t won in New Orleans since 1998.

Overall, the Bills (6-4) have lost three of their last five games following a 4-1 start. A three-game losing streak has dropped the Saints (5-5) to .500 and is their longest since 2016.

In a game that will be televised by NBC, the Bills are touchdown road favorites

Bills vs Saints Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Buffalo Bills -270 -6 (-110) Over 45 (-110)
New Orleans Saints +220 +6 (-110) Under 45 (-110)

Odds as of November 24th at FanDuel

The Bills opened as 3.5-point favorites, but the line has jumped considerably while the over/under has dropped 2.5 points. The Bills have received 80% of the bets and 83% of the handle.

Losers Last Week

Both teams lost handily last week, the Bills falling 41-15 at home to the Indianapolis Colts and the Saints dropping a 40-29 decision on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bills allowed Jonathan Taylor to rush for 185 yards and score a franchise-record five touchdowns.

The Saints’ Trevor Siemian threw three touchdown passes but was also intercepted twice. New Orleans gave up three rushing touchdowns to quarterback Jalen Hurts.

The last time the teams met, the Saints rolled to a 47-10 victory in 2017 during Week 10. Mark Ingram rushed for 131 yards and three touchdowns and Alvin Kamara added 106 yards and one score.

Bills Offense vs Saints Defense

Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs isn’t getting the ball as much this season as in 2020 with defenses being cognizant of letting him beat them.

Diggs has 60 receptions for 773 yards and six touchdowns. That comes a year after he led the league with 127 receptions and 1,535 yards.

The Bills still have the second-best scoring offense in the NFL and the No. 7 pass offense. Quarterback Josh Allen plans to make a conscious attempt to get Diggs more involved Thursday after he had a season-low six targets last week.

Allen also needs to play a cleaner game. Including the playoffs, the Bills are 16-16 in games in which Allen has a turnover.

Saints Offense vs Bills Defense

Siemian has thrown at least two touchdowns passes in each of his three starts since Jameis Winston sustained a season-ending knee injury. However, the Saints would seemingly like to take the same run-first approach that they did the last time they played the Bills.

Yet Ingram and Kamara have both missed practice this week with knee injuries and their status for Thursday is uncertain. Kamara has missed the last two games. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk (knee) also sat out practice this week after being out of last week’s loss.

While Siemian has been decent. The Saints are 0-3 in his starts, and he hasn’t played regularly since 2017 with the Denver Broncos.

The Bills also lead the NFL in total defense — even after the debacle against the Colts.

Bills vs Saints Injury Report

In addition to the aforementioned injuries, the Saints placed tight end Adam Trautman (knee) and offensive lineman Landon Young (foot) on injured reserve this week.

Bills middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) has missed two straight games with a hamstring injury while defensive tackle Star Lotulelei and offensive tackle Spencer Brown have been on the COVID-19/reserve list. Wide receiver Cole Beasley’s production has been diminished recently because of a rib injury.

Bills vs Saints Prediction

The Bills being 6-point road favorites seems like a big number, especially after having ceded first place in the AFC East to the New England Patriots. The Saints aren’t playing any better and are 1-2 at home this season with both losses coming in the final minute.

Let’s lean to the Saints getting that many points at home on a holiday.

The Pick: Saints +6 (-110)

Author Image