Broncos’ Super Bowl 54 Odds Got Worse After Trading for Joe Flacco
- The Baltimore Ravens have agreed in principle to trade Joe Flacco to the Denver Broncos.
- Flacco was sidelined with a hip injury in Week 9 and was not given the starting job back once healthy.
- See how the move has affected the Broncos’ odds to win Super Bowl 54.
Move over, Case Keenum. The Denver Broncos have their next temporary solution under center: Joe Flacco.
Assuming Flacco does win the starting job, he will be fifth quarterback to start for the Broncos since Peyton Manning retired after winning Super Bowl 50, joining Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, and Case Keenum.
Broncos agree to trade for Ravens QB Joe Flacco: https://t.co/N2RNU8F7sq (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/MTrs1q9na4
— NFL (@NFL) February 13, 2019
Flacco, now 34 years old, comes over to the Broncos after having been replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. The once Super Bowl MVP went down with a hip injury in Week 9, but never regained the starting position once healthy.
Is Flacco an upgrade over Keenum in Denver? Online sports betting sites don’t think so.
Super Bowl 54 Odds
| Team | Odds to Win Super Bowl 54 |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +600 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +700 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +1000 |
| Chicago Bears | +1400 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1400 |
| Cleveland Browns | +1600 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1800 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1800 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +2000 |
| Denver Broncos | +10000 |
*Odds taken 2/13; follow the link in the table to see odds for all 32 teams
As you see, the Broncos are miles away from being considered a top contender. And apparently Joe Flacco at QB adds another quarter-mile (or so) to that gap, as Denver’s Super Bowl odds were just +6600 as recently as February 3rd.
Their odds also got longer, going from +10000 to +12500.
Not all online sports betting sites are as pessimistic, though, as the Broncos’ average odds come in at +8800.
Do the Broncos Present any Betting Value with Flacco?
Joe Flacco put together one of the all-time playoff runs when he led the Ravens to victory in Super Bowl 47. (Broncos fans remember those playoffs all too well …)
— Shane (@Shane2323) February 13, 2019
Flacco threw for 1,140 yards and 11 touchdowns in four games, with no interceptions. His 117.2 passer rating in those playoffs is the highest passer rating in a single playoffs since the merger in 1970.
But that was in the 2013 NFL Playoffs, following the 2012 NFL season. Also read, that was SIX years ago!
Since then, the 18th-overall pick from the 2008 NFL Draft has thrown for 110 touchdowns to 80 interceptions in the regular season, and has a passer rating of 82.3. For reference, Nick Mullens posted a 90.8 passer rating last season.
Joe Flacco vs Case Keemun over the last TWO years. pic.twitter.com/p6px7lCGzi
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) February 13, 2019
However, this is a slight upgrade for a team who has been desperate for just decent quarterback play since Manning retired.
Keenum showed very little last year, posting an 81.2 passer rating, and it would be awfully difficult to sell another season with the 30-year-old who isn’t a proven starter under center.
The Houston product struggled with turnovers, throwing 15 interceptions, and seemed reluctant to take shots down the field with rookie Courtland Sutton.
Bradley McDougald, anotha one ☝️. #SEAvsDEN pic.twitter.com/nXH7q45R3S
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) September 9, 2018
If acquiring Flacco means Denver opts for a corner or inside linebacker with the 10th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, then sure, there’s “value” in Denver at +10000 or +12500.
Their defense has a chance to get back to championship form under new head coach Vic Fangio and they have a solid running game with some exciting pass-catchers. But I use value here to say they should probably be listed around 40-1.
He’s the new QB of the @Broncos ?
Joe Flacco’s best throws from the 2018 season! pic.twitter.com/sih1wNpCo9
— NFL (@NFL) February 13, 2019
If you’ve got a big enough bank roll and an online sports betting site that regularly offers buyouts, there’s some value here.
But I’m not even close to being ready to call this team a legitimate Super Bowl contender, especially with the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers accounting for four games on their 2019 schedule.
Fair to say Joe Flacco takes most social media flak of any QB in NFL history that’s?:
-Won a Super Bowl
-Super Bowl MVP
-Started every game for first 7 years, 178 total in Baltimore
-Winning record (10-5) in playoffs
-Outplayed Tom Brady in multiple playoff games
-Made $147.8M— Ross Tucker (@RossTuckerNFL) February 13, 2019
Where’s the Early Super Bowl Value?
After the Patriots started the 2018 NFL season at 1-2, I advised you to bet New England at +890 because you wouldn’t see better odds all year. That paid off for those who listened.
But at just +600, now is not the time to bet the Pats.
Instead, I’m investing in Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers at +1800 (+1900 average), who were being given average odds of +970 at this time last year and +1100 the year before.
I’m also high on the Eagles at +2000. They’ll be more or less the same team that opened 2018 with average odds of +740.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
