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Broncos Listed as 3-Point Underdogs vs Chargers After Lock Announced as Starter

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 10, 2020 · 10:22 PM PDT

Joe Flacco and Drew Lock throwing
Drew Lock (3) gets the start at quarterback for the Denver Broncos on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. Photo from @MileHighHuddle (Twitter).
  • The 3-8 Broncos are expected to start rookie Drew Lock at QB versus the Chargers in Week 13
  • Lock is taking 75 percent of all reps in practice this week
  • The point spread is up to Chargers minus-3 after opening as a pick’em

The last thing that anyone might say about the 3-8 Denver Broncos this season is that they are a lock.

But come Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver’s quarterback situation will be a Lock – Drew Lock, that is. The Broncos’ 2019 second-round pick was taken as their QB of the future. Evidently, that future is now.

Lock is taking 75 percent of all reps in practice. But how might a first-time starter impact the odds on Sunday’s game? The line has moved to Chargers -3.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Los Angeles Chargers -170 -3 (-120) Over 38.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos -150 +3 (EVEN) Under 38.5 (-110)

Odds taken Nov. 29.

The opening line in the Broncos-Chargers odds was a pick.

Broncos Have Nothing To Lose

Well, except perhaps more games. But at this point, does that really matter?

The Broncos couldn’t win with starter Joe Flacco, their big offseason free-agent acquisition. They didn’t win when Brandon Allen replaced the injured Flacco.

Lock will need to be activated from injured reserve, where he’s resided since a preseason thumb injury. But that’s clearly going to happen.

Lock brings a mobility and an ability to throw on the run that Flacco could neither provide or execute.

Allen Wasn’t Turning The Key On

There was mild optimism when Allen beat the Cleveland Browns in his first start. But his numbers since then are horrifying.

Overall, he’s 1-2 as the starter. Allen has completed 46.4 percent of his passes for 515 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions.

That’ll get you benched.

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Chargers A Fearsome Foe

Teams will generally limit a playbook for a first-time starter. Another factor that could limit Lock’s options is the Chargers defense.

Los Angeles is the NFL’s #4 pass defense, allowing 205.3 yards per game through the air. Lock can expect to see a lot of Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa, who leads the team with 8.5 sacks.

The 4-7 Chargers are also among 11 NFL teams that are permitting fewer than 20 points per game this season (19.8). Since losing 20-13 to the Flacco-led Broncos in Week 5, Los Angeles is 3-3.

Each of their seven losses this season has been a one-score setback.

Feels Like The First Time

Lock would be the 12th QB to make his first career NFL start this season. So far, the 11 to precede him are a combined 3-7-1 in their debut appearances.

Interestingly, along with Allen, one of other three to win was Pittsburgh’s Devlin Hodges. He beat the Chargers 24-17.

Factoring in the final score of each of the 11 games, on average, the differential in games involving first-time starters was 5.63 points per game in favor of the opposition.

Chargers Are The Lock

While his mobility, agility and arm strength are clear positives in Lock’s game, he’s not without deficiencies. During his college career, he was known for poor decision making. He’ll throw off his back foot. He throws balls into traffic.

Lock was viewed as a project and that’s why he fell to the second round of the draft. He’s never played a game at NFL speed, dealt with an NFL pass rush, or faced the ability of an NFL defense to disguise coverages when it’s been for keeps.

It figures to be a long day for Lock, and that means the spread growing further in favor of the Chargers should also be a lock.

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