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Browns 2019 Win Total Opens at 9; What’s the Best Bet?

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Apr 6, 2019 · 9:03 PM PDT

Baker Mayfield during 2018 training camp
The Cleveland Browns 2019 Win total is 9, a number they haven't hit since 2007. Photo by Erik Drost (Wiki Commons)].
  • The Cleveland Browns have a Top 10 win total for the 2019 season
  • The Browns are projected to win 9 games, a milestone they haven’t reached since 2007
  • What’s the best bet for Cleveland’s win total?

The Cleveland Browns are the darlings of the NFL betting market these days. They made a big splash via free agency and the trade market this offseason, bolstering an already talented roster with a bevy of stars including Odell Beckham Jr.

They’re the favorites in the AFC North, their Super Bowl odds have been slashed to +1400, and their 2019 NFL wins total has been set at 9.

2019 NFL Win Totals

Team Win Total Over/Under Odds
New England Patriots 11 O -110 / U -110
Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 O -110 / U -110
Los Angeles Rams 10.5 O -110 / U -110
New Orleans Saints 10.5 O -110 / U -110
Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 O -130 / U +110
Green Bay Packers 9.5 O +110 / U -130
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 O -120 / U +110
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 O -110 / U -110
Chicago Bears 9.5 O -110 / U -110
Cleveland Browns 9 O -130 / U +110

Odds taken April 5

Cleveland went 7-8-1 in 2018, after going 1-31 in the previous two seasons combined. They were 5-2 down the stretch, in large part due to the phenomenal play of Rookie of the Year Baker Mayfield.

Baker is a Difference Maker

It’s virtually impossible to succeed in the NFL without a stud at quarterback, and the Browns have one of the best young talents in the league on their team.

Mayfield earned Pro Football Focus’ second highest grade ever by a rookie QB in 2018, and did so operating in a pass-first attack. He set the rookie record with 27 touchdown passes, and was third in the NFL with 39 big time throws (downfield passes that require special ball placement and timing), despite not starting the Browns first three games.

Baker’s New Weapons Will Make Him Better

He accomplished all that and much more without a legitimate number one receiver and now he’ll be throwing to one of the most dangerous pass catchers in the game.

Beckham earned PFF’s fifth highest grade among qualifying receivers in 2018, and was worth 1.98 wins above replacement. Cleveland also added Kareem Hunt, who, character aside, is still one of the most talented running backs in the league.

He was PFF’s sixth highest graded runner last year before his suspension, and when he returns for the second half of the 2019 season, will provide a nice compliment to Nick Chubb.

Cleveland’s Pass Rush Will Cause Havoc

The Browns also upgraded their defense signing Sheldon Richardson and acquiring Olivier Vernon. The latter should be particularly impactful as it will give Cleveland another impressive pass rusher to pair with Myles Garrett.

The duo should wreak havoc on opposing offensive lines, generating consistent pressure, which in turn could lead to more takeaways, putting the ball back in Baker’s hands.

Pound the Over

The Browns are good enough to eclipse 9 wins on talent alone, but the promise of a soft schedule will only help their chances of going over that number.  They’ll play a third place schedule, despite being the class of their own division, and will also benefit from matching up with the AFC East.  Seven of their 13 opponents in 2019 finished below .500 last season, and the rival Steelers are expected to regress.

Pick: Over 9 Wins (-130)

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