Browns vs Bills Props – Best Player Props to Bet in Week 11
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: March 16, 2023 at 1:51 pm EDTPublished:
- Browns vs Bills player props are live ahead of their Week 11 matchup on Sunday (Nov. 18)
- Will Josh Allen’s longest completion exceed 38.5 yards? Can Gabriel Davis find the end zone?
- All the available Browns vs Bills player prop odds are listed below, in addition to our best bets
It’s been a wild week for the Browns and Bills. The two teams were preparing to play in the latest installment of Snow-mageddon, that is until the league stepped in and moved the game to Detroit.
Now, two of the league’s top-six offenses will square off at Ford Field, and the fast indoor track drastically increases the matchup’s chances of shooting out.
As a result, we’re going to stray from our tried and true method of betting unders in the Week 11 player props market, and focus on a pair of overs. Our first target is Josh Allen, who has a mouth-watering matchup as we’ll discuss.
Browns vs Bills Player Props
| Quarterbacks | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett (CLE) | OFF | 223.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -205) |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | OFF | 277.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 1.5 (Ov -195 | Un +145) |
| Running Backs | Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush + Rec Yards |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | OFF | 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 86.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | OFF | 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| Wide Receivers + Tight Ends | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
| Amari Cooper (CLE) | OFF | 52.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) | 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) | OFF | 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) |
| Stefon Diggs (BUF) | OFF | 87.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| Gabriel Davis (BUF) | OFF | 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) |
| Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) | OFF | 25.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) | 14.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | OFF | 34.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 16.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
Odds as of November 18 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings promo code to bet on your Browns vs Bills player props in Week 11.
Allen has an over/under passing yards prop of 277.5, which is 54 yards more than opposing QB Jacoby Brissett. The Bills star QB also has a longest completion prop of 38.5, which isn’t listed but is a number he should be able to exceed.
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Browns vs Bills Prop #1: Josh Allen Over 38.5 Yards Longest Completion
First off, it’s a number that Allen has eclipsed five times already this season, and in seven of his last 11 games dating back to last season.
No quarterback in the NFL has a bigger arm than Allen, while the fast track should allow his speedsters Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis to blow past the opposing corners.
Josh Allen 2022 Statistical Rankings
| Pass Yards | AYA | TD | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | 6th | 2nd | 3rd |
Speaking of the opposing defense, the Browns struggle badly against the pass. They rank 26th in that category per DVOA and just coughed up 295 yards to the Dolphins in Week 10. Cleveland is especially bad defending the deep ball as they’ve surrendered the fourth-highest completion percentage on 20+ yard throws.
Prop Pick: Josh Allen Over 38.5 Yards Longest Completion (-115), 1 unit
Browns vs Bills Prop #2: Nick Chubb Over 73.5 Rushing Yards
When the Browns have the ball there’s no secret as to what they’re going to want to do. Run, run and then run some more. Cleveland pounds the rock at the league’s seventh-highest rate, and it’s hard to argue that strategy when Nick Chubb is lined up in your backfield.
Chubb ranks third in total rushing this season, averaging 5.7 yards per clip. He’s cleared 73 rushing yards in seven of nine games, and the only reason he didn’t accomplish the feat last week is because he was limited to 11 attempts in a blowout loss.
There’s Nick Chubb and then there’s everyone else… pic.twitter.com/XdTZQgPKZ9
— Cleveland Sports Talk (@CLEsportsTalk) November 14, 2022
As for the matchup this week, it’s incredibly favorable. The Bills have coughed up at least 145 rushing yards in three straight games, including 119 to Dalvin Cook last week on just 14 carries.
Prop Pick: Nick Chubb Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115), 1 unit
Browns vs Bills TD Props
| Player | Odds to Score 1st TD | Odds to Score Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs (BUF) | +550 | -125 |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | +600 | -205 |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | +600 | -110 |
| Gabriel Davis (BUF) | +650 | -105 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +800 | +125 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | +1000 | +165 |
| Kareem Hunt (CLE) | +1300 | +150 |
| Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) | +1300 | +210 |
| Amari Cooper (CLE) | +1300 | +150 |
| James Cook (BUF) | +1500 | +255 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | +1700 | +295 |
| Nyheim Hines (BUF) | +1800 | +320 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) | +1900 | +255 |
| Harrison Bryant (CLE) | +2000 | +280 |
| Bills Defense | +2200 | +425 |
| Jacoby Brissett (CLE) | +2800 | +350 |
| Browns Defense | +4000 | +600 |
The Browns are 7.5-point underdogs in this matchup, but oddsmakers are still incredibly bullish on Chubb to have a big game. He’s currently listed with -205 odds to score a touchdown, which is by far the shortest on the board.
Browns vs Bills Prop #3: Gabriel Davis Anytime TD
Chubb does have a league-high 11 touchdowns this season, but you know who else is a TD machine? Gabriel Davis. Everyone remembers the four-touchdown game against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round back in January, but he’s scored 14 times in his last 16 games dating back to last season.
He’s a prime candidate to take advantage of Cleveland’s struggles against the deep ball, and he’s being offered at a much more palatable price tag than Chubb or even his teammate Diggs.
Death. Taxes. Gabriel Davis Touchdowns. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/YjWD7a85Bq
— Trainwreck Sports (@TrainwreckSprts) November 13, 2022
Davis is one of only two players with at least four TDs of 20+ yards this season. The other is Davante Adams. That’s some pretty elite company.
Pick: Gabriel Davis Anytime TD (-105), 1 unit
Last Week’s Player Props Record: 7-0, +7.56 units
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
