Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 11
- The Buffalo Bills are 7.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns in Week 11
- The game has moved to Detroit’s Ford Field, as a massive snowstorm hit Buffalo
- See the Browns vs Bills odds ahead of their Week 11 clash, and our pick below
In the latest edition of the NFL comes at you fast, we present the Buffalo Bills.
Two weeks ago, they were 6-1 and the consensus top team in the NFL. Now? They’ve dropped two straight, and while they’re still a favorite in the 2023 Super Bowl odds, they’ve fallen to third in the AFC East.
Another thing they’ve lost — even before their Week 11 matchup with the Cleveland Browns — is home field advantage.
The game was officially moved from Buffalo, with the NFL citing safety and travel issues as a massive lake-effect storm could drop up to three feet of snow by Saturday.
The neutral-site battle will now take place at Ford Field in Detroit, home to the Lions, who are on the road this week in New York.
It all gets underway Sunday at 1pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on CBS.
Browns vs Bills Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | +295 | +7.5 (-110) | Ov 49.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -360 | -7.5 (-110) | Un 49.5 (-110) |
Odds as of November 19th at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on Browns vs Bills.
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The Browns are 7.5-point underdogs, while the over/under for this matchup has been all over the map in anticipation of the weather. The total opened at 47 points, but had dropped to as low as 41. The move to the dome lifted it to 49.5.
Buffalo’s recent struggles are reflected in the NFL Betting Trends, with 89% of the moneyline wagers on Bills, but just 57% on the spread.
Cleveland Betting Outlook
It was always going to be a struggle for the Browns, with Jacoby Brissett a placeholder as they awaited the return of Deshaun Watson from suspension.
Now, after a 39-17 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins — their fifth loss in six games and third straight on the road — Cleveland is treading close to must-win territory if they want to have a shot at the playoffs when Watson does come back.
This can’t be faulted entirely on the offense, which boasts the fifth-best yards total, and fifth-best rush attack, while putting up 24.1 points per game, 10th in the NFL.
CHUBB 😤 @NickChubb
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 13, 2022
Where they’ve really struggled is on defense, as Cleveland is surrendering 26.4 points per game, the second-most points allowed per game in the NFL.
The Dolphins rung up 195 yards rushing against the Browns — and they were ranked 28th in rushing. Miami is the third team to hit their top rushing total against the Browns.
This might be a chance for Nick Chubb to get back to his dominant self. He had 63 yards rushing against the Fins, the third time in four games he’s gone sub-100. He had gone for at least 100 yards in four of his previous five starts.
Buffalo Betting Outlook
Much of the concern was with Josh Allen’s health heading into Week 10. After struggling in a 33-30 OT loss to the Vikings, his injured elbow is now second to his poor decision making.
Allen, once the favorite in the 2022 NFL MVP odds, has hit a rough patch. He has thrown two interceptions in each of the last three games, giving him a league-leading 10. He also fumbled a snap on the goal line, which the Vikings remembered for a touchdown.
The NFL’s top-ranked offense has also failed to score a TD in the second half in the last three games.
JOSH ALLEN INT. VIKINGS WIN 😱🤯
GAME OF THE YEAR.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/W2Mlq0w3Zw
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 13, 2022
Unfortunately, so much of what Buffalo does is tied to Allen. Even though they’re ranked 10th in rushing, their run game isn’t that impactful, with Allen leading the team in rushing with 476 yards. Devin Singletary does have a decent 4.3 yard per carry average, but he’s had double-digit carries just four times this year.
The Bills’ defense has been compromised for weeks, and Week 11 is no exception, with CB Tre’Davious White (coach’s decision), LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin) and DE Greg Rousseau (ankle) are out, with S Jordan Poyer (elbow) and CB Kaiir Elam (ankle) are all questionable.
Still, they are second in scoring D, holding teams to 16.7 points per game.
Browns vs Bills Pick
Buffalo has won four of the last six meetings, and the favorite is 5-0-1 against the spread in the last six head-to-head matchups.
The Bills are 10-2-2 against the spread in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
Cleveland’s ground game is a concern, considering the weakened Bills defense, which has surrendered 529 yards rushing in the last three games.
Look for a major Allen bounce back, though, as he’s too talented to allow the Bills to drop three straight.
The Pick:
- Bills -7.5 (-110); 1 unit to win 0.91 units
- Overall: 8-6 ATS, 0-1 ML; 1-0 O/U, -2.26 units
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
