- The Colts and Chiefs kick off the Divisional Round on Saturday
- Many think the Colts are primed for an upset of the top team in the AFC
- Check out some of our favorite AFC Divisional Round Props
The Indianapolis Colts have a lengthy road ahead of the them if they want to go to the Super Bowl.
After knocking off the third-seeded Texans, they head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Some are pegging them for an upset. But the Chiefs will be tough.
Here are our favorite props from the first game of the Divisional round.
Prop #1: Who throws for more yards?
|Who has more passing yards?||Odds per BetOnline|
|Andrew Luck has more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes||+104|
|Patrick Mahomes has more passing yards than Andrew Luck||-156|
*All odds taken 1/10
There’s going to be a lot of footballs flying this weekend.
Patrick Mahomes finished second in passing yards. Andrew Luck was fifth.
Lean towards Mahomes here. Over the past five weeks, Mahomes and the Chiefs have racked up more yards through the air than four of their opponents.
They haven’t been playing the best of the best, with Derek Carr twice and Lamar Jackson once, but they’ve still been airing it out.
Opposing QB vs Mahomes Last 5 Weeks
|285||Week 13 @ OAK||295|
|147||Week 14 vs BAL||377|
|313||Week 15 vs LAC||243|
|271||Week 16 @ SEA||273|
|185||Week 17 vs OAK||281|
Mahomes has also out-gunned opposing QBs in four of his last five home games. Making playing in Arrowhead an even more daunting task.
"I trust Mahomes more. That is not a slight on Andrew Luck, but I trust Patrick Mahomes as much, if not more, than any QB in the NFL right now because over 16 games, he's been the best player in the NFL." — @getnickwright pic.twitter.com/houEeCYQOt
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) January 9, 2019
Then there’s the running games. The Chiefs have averaged under four yards per carry in three of their last four. If they’re going to move the ball, they’re throwing it.
The Colts? Well we’ll get to their running game in a second.
The Pick: Mahomes finishes with more passing yards than Luck (-156)
Prop #2: Can Mack capitalize on Chiefs’ run D?
|How many yards will Marlon Mack rush for?||Odds per BetOnline|
|Marlon Mack finishes with 113+ rushing yards||+137|
Marlon Mack has been on an absolute tear. And don’t expect it to stop against the Chiefs.
Mack has run for at least 119 yards in three of his last four games, after struggling from Week 10-14. His yards per attempt is a lofty 4.7 over that stretch. He’s also been a touchdown machine.
Marlon Mack Stats Last 4 Weeks
|Week 15 vs DAL||27||139||5.15||2|
|Week 16 vs NYG||12||34||2.83||1|
|Week 17 @ TEN||25||119||4.76||1|
|Wild Card @ HOU||24||148||6.17||1|
The Chiefs have an atrocious run defense. They allowed the second-most yards per run at 5.0 and the sixth-most per game at 132.
Erik Dickerson, Marshall Faulk and Edgerrin James all have played for the Colts, but it's Marlon Mack who now holds the single-game playoff record for rushing yards. pic.twitter.com/7cjAQTzk0R
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 6, 2019
KC has allowed at least 119 rushing yards against in five-straight games. They’ve allowed fewer than 100 yards against in just four of their 16 games.
Mack will be running at will on Saturday.
The Pick: Marlon Mack has at least 113 rushing yards against the Chiefs (+137)
Prop #3: Prepare for Kelce to have a big day
|Travis Kelce receiving totals||Odds per BetOnline|
|Travis Kelce has 8+ receptions||-122|
|Travis Kelce has 111+ receiving yards||+133|
Expect Mahomes to target Travis Kelce heavily.
Indy hasn’t done an excellent job defending tight ends. Over the past five weeks, they’ve surrendered an average of 49 yards to tight ends. Removing the lowest weeks, it becomes 71 yards.
Colts vs Tight Ends Last 5 Weeks
|Week||IND Opposing TE||Targets||Catches||Yards|
|Week 14||Ryan Griffin, HOU||5||5||80|
|Week 15||Blake Jarwin, DAL||7||4||45|
|Week 16||Evan Engram, NYG||6||6||87|
|Week 17||MyCole Pruitt, TEN||2||2||26|
|Wild Card||Jordan Atkins, HOU||3||2||8|
And none of those guys were as talented as Kelce.
The target numbers tell us that opponents have identified a weakness with the Colts. Those teams couldn’t exploit the matchup the way the Chiefs can.
Daily #DadStat – TEs Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce had more targets than the following WRs…
— Dynasty Dads (@DynastyDads) January 10, 2019
Indy has allowed a catch percentage of 83% to tight ends recently. Kelce has a Gronk-approved 69% this year. He’s seen at least nine targets in six-straight, and in all but four games this year.
— We Are Chiefs Kingdom (@KingdomCitian) January 9, 2019
Win or lose, Kelce is about to feast.
The Pick: Kelce goes over eight catches (-303) and 111 yards (+133)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.