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Colts vs Chiefs Player Props (Divisional Round) – Mack Keeps Producing

Andrew Luck hands off to Marlon Mack
Marlon Mack exploded for 148 rushing yards against a tough Texans defense last weekend. Photo by Keith Allison (Wikipedia) [CC License]
  • The Colts and Chiefs kick off the Divisional Round on Saturday
  • Many think the Colts are primed for an upset of the top team in the AFC
  • Check out some of our favorite AFC Divisional Round Props

The Indianapolis Colts have a lengthy road ahead of the them if they want to go to the Super Bowl.

After knocking off the third-seeded Texans, they head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Some are pegging them for an upset. But the Chiefs will be tough.

Here are our favorite props from the first game of the Divisional round.

Prop #1: Who throws for more yards?

Who has more passing yards? Odds per BetOnline
Andrew Luck has more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes +104
Patrick Mahomes has more passing yards than Andrew Luck -156

*All odds taken 1/10

There’s going to be a lot of footballs flying this weekend.

Patrick Mahomes finished second in passing yards. Andrew Luck was fifth.

Lean towards Mahomes here. Over the past five weeks, Mahomes and the Chiefs have racked up more yards through the air than four of their opponents.

They haven’t been playing the best of the best, with Derek Carr twice and Lamar Jackson once, but they’ve still been airing it out.

Opposing QB vs Mahomes Last 5 Weeks

Opposing QB passing yards
Mahomes passing yards

285 Week 13 @ OAK 295
147 Week 14 vs BAL 377
313 Week 15 vs LAC 243
271 Week 16 @ SEA 273
185 Week 17 vs OAK 281

Mahomes has also out-gunned opposing QBs in four of his last five home games. Making playing in Arrowhead an even more daunting task.

Then there’s the running games. The Chiefs have averaged under four yards per carry in three of their last four. If they’re going to move the ball, they’re throwing it.

The Colts? Well we’ll get to their running game in a second.

The Pick: Mahomes finishes with more passing yards than Luck (-156)

Prop #2: Can Mack capitalize on Chiefs’ run D?

How many yards will Marlon Mack rush for? Odds per BetOnline
Marlon Mack finishes with 113+ rushing yards +137

Marlon Mack has been on an absolute tear. And don’t expect it to stop against the Chiefs.

Mack has run for at least 119 yards in three of his last four games, after struggling from Week 10-14. His yards per attempt is a lofty 4.7 over that stretch. He’s also been a touchdown machine.

Marlon Mack Stats Last 4 Weeks

Week Carries Yards Yards/Carry Touchdowns
Week 15 vs DAL 27 139 5.15 2
Week 16 vs NYG 12 34 2.83 1
Week 17 @ TEN 25 119 4.76 1
Wild Card @ HOU 24 148 6.17 1

The Chiefs have an atrocious run defense. They allowed the second-most yards per run at 5.0 and the sixth-most per game at 132.

KC has allowed at least 119 rushing yards against in five-straight games. They’ve allowed fewer than 100 yards against in just four of their 16 games.

Mack will be running at will on Saturday.

The Pick: Marlon Mack has at least 113 rushing yards against the Chiefs (+137)

Prop #3: Prepare for Kelce to have a big day

Travis Kelce receiving totals Odds per BetOnline
Travis Kelce has 8+ receptions -122
Travis Kelce has 111+ receiving yards +133
Parlay +168

Expect Mahomes to target Travis Kelce heavily.

Indy hasn’t done an excellent job defending tight ends. Over the past five weeks, they’ve surrendered an average of 49 yards to tight ends. Removing the lowest weeks, it becomes 71 yards.

Colts vs Tight Ends Last 5 Weeks

Week IND Opposing TE Targets Catches Yards
Week 14 Ryan Griffin, HOU 5 5 80
Week 15 Blake Jarwin, DAL 7 4 45
Week 16 Evan Engram, NYG 6 6 87
Week 17 MyCole Pruitt, TEN 2 2 26
Wild Card Jordan Atkins, HOU 3 2 8

And none of those guys were as talented as Kelce.

The target numbers tell us that opponents have identified a weakness with the Colts. Those teams couldn’t exploit the matchup the way the Chiefs can.

Indy has allowed a catch percentage of 83% to tight ends recently. Kelce has a Gronk-approved 69% this year. He’s seen at least nine targets in six-straight, and in all but four games this year.

Win or lose, Kelce is about to feast.

The Pick: Kelce goes over eight catches (-303) and 111 yards (+133)

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