Cook & McCaffrey Listed as Co-Favorites to Lead NFL in Rushing After Week 5; Fournette Given 4-1 Odds

• Sportsbooks have updated the odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2019
• Christian McCaffrey is first in the NFL with 587 rushing yards after Week 5
• Dalvin Cook is tied with McCaffrey at the top of the odds (+333) despite trailing by 45 yards

As we move towards Week 6 of the NFL season, Sportsbooks have updated the odds on who will lead the NFL in rushing yards.

Christian McCaffrey leads the league with 587 rushing yards but he’ll have some tough competition to finish with the top spot, which is why the odds board is tightly packed at the top.

Who’s the best bet to be the NFL’s rushing champion in 2019?

2019 NFL Rushing-Leader Odds

*Odds taken on October 9.

McCaffrey Has Been Electric

While many running backs in the NFL seem to have different dependencies – playing with a good quarterback, game flow, etc. – none of that has affected Christian McCaffrey, who is on pace for an incredible season. Playing behind what was supposed to be a so-so offensive line and without Cam Newton, McCaffrey has put the team on his back.

Through five games this season, McCaffrey leads the NFL with 587 rushing yards and has picked up six rushing touchdowns. He’s also added another 279 receiving yards and a touchdown to that total. What might be most impressive is that he’s played almost 100% of the team’s snaps this year. His electric performance has also put him among the 2019 NFL MVP favorites.

There’s no question that McCaffrey deserves to be the favorite right now but I’m not expecting him to keep this up. His best rushing season was last year when he had 1,098 rushing yards and while he’ll blow past that mark, the offense should lean on the pass more once Cam Newton is back and healthy.

McCaffrey has averaged 23.3 carries per game over the last three weeks; he averaged just 17.5 prior to that. He should taper off here a little bit, which could open the door for some other backs to catch up.

Cook Has Thrived In Vikings New System

The wide receivers in Minnesota’s offense might not be thrilled with the team’s new offense, but Dalvin Cook is loving every minute of it. He’s a perfect fit for this Gary Kubiak system and he is not the first RB to look great in Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDNFGqUuPKc

Cook is putting together the best year of his (injury-plagued) career. His career-best for rushing yards is 615; he’s already at 542 through five games. He’s a real home-run hitter as he has runs of at least 22 yards or longer in four of his first five games.

My concern here is that the Vikings are far too predictable on offense. Opponents know that the passing game is the weakness and that Cook is feasting these days. Opposing defenses will give the FSU product more attention in the coming weeks. The Vikings’ passing game was more respected earlier in the season.

Fournette Has Come To Life

The emergence of Gardner Minshew II has had a ripple effect on the Jacksonville Jaguars as a number of their skill players are starting to shine. Previously, with no threat of a passing game, running back Leonard Fournette was facing all sorts of stacked boxes.

Now that Minshew has shown he’s the real deal, the lanes have opened up for Fournette.

D.J. Chark Jr. has also been a big beneficiary as he’s fifth in the NFL in receiving yards. With defenses focusing in more on him and the passing game, Fournette has come to life. He has 333 rushing yards in his last two games, alone.

My concern is that his success seems to be predicated on the passing game remaining a threat, and Minshew (a sixth-round rookie) is likely to regress.

If/when he does, Fournette will face a lot of stacked boxes again, severely impacting his chances at the rushing title.

Value With Chubb

The player I’d bet on right now is Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb. At +700, I see good value even though Chubb’s rushing-title odds got considerably worse after the Browns had a rough week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UlqQ-boTHM

The Browns now know that their offense has to run through him. If they put the game on Baker Mayfield’s shoulder, it’s not going to work. Chubb is the key to this team’s success – even though they have good wide receivers.

What I love about Chubb in this spot is the back end of the schedule. The next four weeks are tough but look at the least seven games: vs Pittsburgh, vs Miami, at Pittsburgh, vs Cincinnati, at Arizona, vs Baltimore, and at Cincinnati.

I’m expecting the Browns to get hot down the stretch of the season and ride Chubb along the way.

At +700, I see plenty of value here. He’s going to get lots of soft defenses to beat up on as we move through November and December.