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Current Super Bowl Odds & 49ers vs Chiefs Prediction

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated Feb 11, 2024 · 11:45 AM PST

Super Bowl 58 odds graphic
San Francisco and Kansas City will square off for the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday, Feb. 11
  • The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs meet in Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas this afternoon
  • The 49ers are slight betting favorites but the Chiefs are the defending champs and beat the Niners in Super Bowl 54
  • See the latest 49ers vs Chiefs odds, predictions, and expert picks for the Super Bowl

Two storied franchises will meet in the Super Bowl for the second time in the last five years when the San Francisco 49ers (14-5, 9-10 ATS) face the Kansas City Chiefs (14-6, 12-7-1 ATS) in Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV, this afternoon.

Open for betting for nearly two weeks, there has been ample movement in the 49ers vs Chiefs odds. But as kickoff draws nearer, the Super Bowl 58 odds are right back where they started.

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
San Francisco 49ers -2 (-110) -130 47.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs +2 (-110) +110 47.5 (-110)

The Super Bowl odds favor the 49ers by two points and set San Francisco as a -130 moneyline favorite. The Chiefs come back at +110 to repeat as NFL champions and win their third Lombardi Trophy in the last five years.

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The Super Bowl 58 line has been as high as 49ers -2.5 and as low as Chiefs -1. The latest NFL public betting splits show the majority of money on the Chiefs +2 (69% of ATS handle) and the Chiefs to win straight-up (73% of moneyline handle). The public also favors under 47.5 (65% of game-total handle).

San Francisco Stumbles Into Super Bowl

The 49ers needed two comeback wins to get themselves back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2020. In the NFC Divisional Round, the Niners trailed the Green Bay Packers 21-14 entering the fourth quarter. But the defense came up huge, forcing two turnovers and a punt on Green Bay’s final four possessions while the offense did just enough to escape with a 24-21 win. Brock Purdy finished 23-of-39 for 252 yards and one touchdown, while Christian McCaffrey had 98 rushing yards and two touchdowns, plus another 30 yards through the air.

It was a similar script (but on steroids) in the NFC Championship Game against Detroit. The Lions roared out to a 24-7 halftime lead before San Francisco mounted an epic second-half comeback. The 49ers scored the first 27 points of the second half to take a 34-24 lead. The Lions covered the 7.5-point spread thanks to a last-minute TD that made the final score 34-31.  Again, McCaffrey led the way with 90 rushing yards and two touchdowns plus 42 receiving yards. Purdy was a little more efficient, going 20-of-31 for 267 yards, one TD, and one INT.

During the regular season, the 49ers went 12-5 with the second-best point differential in the NFC (+193, one behind Dallas). The Niners also finished second in the NFL in DVOA behind Baltimore. Their +35.9% DVOA number would have led the league each of the past three years. A surprise to many, it was the offense and not the star-studded defense that propelled San Francisco up the DVOA rankings. The 49ers rated first in the NFL in Offensive Efficiency while sitting fourth in Defensive Efficiency.

Kansas City Finds Its Footing in the Playoffs

Always saddled with lofty expectations during the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs didn’t quite live up to them during the regular season. Kansas City went 11-6 in a bad AFC West finishing with a +77 point differential, fourth-best in the AFC and sixth in the league.  They wound up fifth in DVOA but neither their offense (eighth) nor defense (seventh) was a top-five unit.

But that somewhat lethargic regular-season performance became a distant memory as soon as the Wild-Card Round arrived. Mahomes and the Chiefs easily dispatched a battered Miami Dolphins team 26-7, holding the Phins to just 264 total yards of offense while piling up 409 of their own.

KC backed up that home win with a massive performance on the road at Buffalo the next week. The Chiefs went to Orchard Park as 2.5-point road underdogs in freezing conditions and emerged with a hard-fought 27-24 win. The Chiefs’ defense gets a ton of credit, holding the Bills to just 4.7 yards per play (368 total yards on 78 plays). Travis Kelce was electric on offense, with 75 yards and two touchdown on just five receptions. Mahomes finished 17-of-23 for 215 yards and two TDs.

The Chiefs defense saved its best performance for the AFC Championship Game. Facing the league-leading Baltimore Ravens, the only team that outranked San Francisco in DVOA with a historic +45.5% number, the Chiefs defense taught a masterclass in containment. The Ravens finished the day with just 10 points and 336 yards, scoring just a field goal in the final three quarters.

Mahomes and the offense didn’t have a lot more success than Baltimore’s attack, but a two-yard Isiah Pacheco TD early in the second quarter was enough to propel the Chiefs to a 17-10 win and back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the last five years

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

Both teams are built quite differently than when they met in the 2020 Super Bowl four years ago. At that point, KC’s high-flying offense included the likes to Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, while their defense was considerably more generous to opposing teams. This season, the Chiefs are extremely thin at receiver, asking Travis Kelce to shoulder an absurd load at tight end. Their defense, on the other hand, especially the secondary, counts itself among the best in the league.  But the 49ers offense has so many ways to move the ball. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are great threats on the outside; George Kittel might be the second-best tight end in the league; Jauan Jennings is underrated in the slot; and that doesn’t even touch on what Christian McCaffrey brings to the table.

Generally, I have zero interest in betting against Patrick Mahomes, especially in the postseason. But with the line this tight and the San Francisco roster as stacked as it is, I am taking the 49ers to win their first Super Bowl since 1995, when Steve Young and company routed the San Diego Chargers (49-26).

49ers vs Chiefs pick: 49ers moneyline (-130)

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