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49ers vs Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Picks Against the Spread

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Feb 11, 2024 · 6:10 AM PST

The Chiefs are 2-point underdogs to the 49ers in the Super Bowl ATS picks.
Oct 23, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
  • In the Super Bowl 58 ATS picks the San Francisco 49ers are a 2-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs
  • The Chiefs are 12-7-1 ATS this season, tops among AFC teams
  • San Francisco is a disappointing 9-10 ATS. Which one comes out on top in our Super Bowl ATS picks?

When assessing the 49ers vs Chiefs Super Bowl 58 picks against the spread, the odds may be favoring San Francisco, but the betting trends are with Kansas City.

It’s the 49ers who are set as 2-point favorites over the Chiefs in the Super Bowl odds. However, San Francisco is 0-2 ATS during the NFL postseason. Meanwhile, Kansas City is a stellar 3-0 ATS.

The Chiefs covered and won outright as betting underdogs in their past two games. In the conference championship games, both underdogs covered.

Favorites are struggling to get the job done in this year’s NFL playoffs. The chalk is 4-8 ATS. That being said, the only away underdog to win outright during the past two rounds of the NFL postseason has been the Chiefs. And they’ve done it two games in a row.

Now, let’s check out our NFL Super Bowl picks against the spread.

49ers vs Chiefs Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
San Francisco -2 (-110) -130 47.5 (-110)
Kansas City +2 (-110) +110 47.5 (-110)

Our Super Bowl ATS pick this week in the table above will feature a play on the Chiefs.

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Underdogs Dominant In Recent Super Bowl Games

Recent Super Bowl betting trends are leaning toward the underdog as well. In the past three big games, the underdog is 3-0 ATS. In two of those games, the underdog was an outright winner.

Taking it back a bit further, the underdogs have covered in nine of the past 12 Super Bowl games. Interestingly, the last favorite to cover was the Chiefs when they beat the 49ers in the 2020 big game. That also makes San Francisco the most recent underdog that failed to cover.

In each of the last five Super Bowl games in which the AFC squad took the field as the betting underdog, those teams are not only 5-0 ATS, four of the five also won the big game outright. Included in those five games was Baltimore’s 34-31 victory over San Francisco in 2013 as 4.5-point underdogs.

Best News for 49ers Is They Aren’t At Home

The Super Bowl is a neutral site game and that might be just fine with the 49ers. Home, sweet home hasn’t proven to be the case at all for San Francisco.

In their final six home games of the 2023-24 NFL season, the Niners were 0-6 ATS. As an away team this season, San Francisco is showing a much better 6-3 ATS mark.

Favored again in the Chiefs vs 49ers picks, oddly enough, San Francisco has teed up the football as the betting choice in all 19 games this season. Yet the 49ers have only been able to cover nine times.

In the past 11 Super Bowl games in which the NFC squad has been the betting favorite, their ATS record is a dismal 1-8-2. The 49ers are 0-2 ATS in their last two Super Bowl appearances. However, San Francisco is 4-2 ATS as a Super Bowl favorite.

Chiefs Are Underdog Perfection

Kansas City’s 17-10 AFC Championship Game win over the Ravens marked the fifth time in six games that the Chiefs have covered the spread. They’ve won outright the past two games as underdogs. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes, favored to win his third award in the Super Bowl MVP odds, is 10-1-1 in his career as an underdog.

Kansas City is an NFL best 3-0 ATS as a betting underdog this season. In fact, the Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when they weren’t the betting choice.

49ers vs Chiefs Picks Against the Spread

Last season, the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs won 38-35 as 1.5-point underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles. Kansas City is 2-1 ATS as a Super Bowl underdog.

The Chiefs are also 1-0 ATS in neutral-site games this season. Kansas City beat Miami in a game played in Germany.

NFL ATS Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +2 (-110), 1 unit

  • NFL ATS Playoff Record: 6-2

Get more Super Bowl 58 coverage from SBD here! 

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