Latest Super Bowl MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes Favored Over Brock Purdy
- Who will win the 2024 Super Bowl MVP award on Sunday?
- The latest odds favor Patrick Mahomes over Brock Purdy
- Below, see the full Super Bowl MVP odds, expert picks and longshots
The 2024 Super Bowl MVP will be Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy, according to oddsmakers in Las Vegas. They’ve set the two Super Bowl quarterbacks as the favorites for the MVP trophy, giving a slight edge to the Kansas City pivot.
Super Bowl MVP trends support the notion that a quarterback will win the 2024 trophy. That doesn’t mean there aren’t longshots to consider, including Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, who could have a monster game in front of his girlfriend Taylor Swift.
Let’s look at the latest Super Bowl MVP odds, as we determine the best bets and longshots to consider.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | +145 |
| Brock Purdy (49ers) | +230 |
| Christian McCaffrey (49ers) | +450 |
| Travis Kelce (Chiefs) | +1200 |
| Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) | +2200 |
| Deebo Samuel (49ers) | +2500 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) | +5000 |
| Rashee Rice (Chiefs) | +6600 |
| George Kittle (49ers) | +8000 |
| Chris Jones (Chiefs) | +12500 |
| Nick Bosa (49ers) | +12500 |
| L’Jarius Sneed (Chiefs) | +17500 |
| Fred Warner (49ers) | +20000 |
| Sam Darnold (49ers) | +30000 |
In the current Super Bowl MVP odds, Patrick Mahomes is the +145 favorite, giving him a 40.8% implied chance to repeat as the MVP winner.
Odds as of Feb. 10, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Sign up for BetMGM using the BetMGM promo code to place a bet on the Super Bowl MVP winner. If already registered at MGM, check out the top NFL betting apps.
Mahomes Favored Over Purdy
Despite San Francisco being slight favorites in the Super Bowl odds, it’s KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is the Super Bowl MVP favorite. The two-time Super Bowl champion is priced at +145 in the latest MVP odds, which has lengthened from his +120 price following conference championships.
It’s not surprising to see Mahomes favored, as the KC pivot has already won the award twice in his career, including in Super Bowl 57 against the Eagles. He’s the leader of this Chiefs offense and on his way to potentially overtaking Tom Brady as the greatest to ever do it.
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl on Sunday…
Does Pat Mahomes become the 2nd greatest NFL player of all time, behind Tom Brady? pic.twitter.com/HAbtwiB2VA
— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) February 10, 2024
Brock Purdy isn’t far behind Mahomes in the odds, sitting at +230 at BetMGM. “Mr. Irrelevant” has exceeded expectations since taking over the 49ers starting QB role, leading his team to the Big Game as the final draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. While Mahomes has Super Bowl experience, this will be Purdy’s first go-around.
When picking between Mahomes and Purdy for MVP, we can’t help but lean towards the veteran. It’s hard to envision a Chiefs victory without Mahomes being the driving catalyst. If the 49ers, however, we could envision elite running back Christian McCaffrey being the star of the show.
Super Bowl MVP Public Betting Splits
The betting public is betting against the trend of quarterbacks winning the Super Bowl MVP, as of Sunday afternoon, DraftKings is reporting 29% of their handle and 22% of their bets counts coming in on 49ers’ running back Chrtistian McCaffrey for Super Bowl MVP.
Furthermore, Travis Kelce, another non-QB, is second in both categories with 15% of the public support.
Super Bowl MVP Trends
Quarterbacks have dominated the Super Bowl MVP award, winning it 32 times out of 57 Super Bowls (over 55%). The last non-quarterback to win was wide receiver Cooper Kupp in 2022 (Super Bowl 56). Recently, the dominance has become more pronounced, with a quarterback winning seven of the past ten MVP awards.
Recent Super Bowl MVP Winners
| Year | Position – MVP Winner | Team | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | QB – Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 38-35 |
| 2022 | WR – Cooper Kupp | Los Angeles Rams | 23-20 |
| 2021 | QB – Tom Brady | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31-9 |
| 2020 | QB – Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 31-20 |
| 2019 | WR – Julian Edelman | New England Patriots | 13-3 |
| 2018 | QB – Nick Foles | Philadelphia Eagles | 41-33 |
| 2017 | QB – Tom Brady | New England Patriots | 34-28 |
| 2016 | LB – Von Miller | Denver Broncos | 24-10 |
| 2015 | QB – Tom Brady | New England Patriots | 28-24 |
| 2014 | LB – Malcolm Smith | Seattle Seahawks | 43-8 |
What’s interesting about the Super Bowl MVP trends is the running back position. 49ers back Christian McCaffrey was recently named NFL Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league with 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. No running back has won Super Bowl MVP since 1998, but McCaffrey’s dual-threat ability gives him a chance.
For those considering betting Travis Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP, consider that no tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP. Kelce’s popularity and connection to Taylor Swift provide a unique storyline in this game. Would the league give him the trophy over Mahomes if both players balled out?
One final trend to note is that the Super Bowl MVP is almost always on the winning team. The only instance of a losing player winning Super Bowl MVP was in 1971 when Dallas Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley took home the honor after falling to the Baltimore Colts 16-13 on a late field goal.
Super Bowl MVP Longshot Picks
When it comes to Super Bowl longshot picks, we don’t hate the idea of sprinkling some money down on Travis Kelce at +1200. However, he isn’t really a true longshot, as he’s the fourth betting choice at BetMGM. You might be better off checking out the Taylor Swift props for some fun Kelce prop wagers.
Travis Kelce is the most bet on player to win Super Bowl MVP at @ESPNBet pic.twitter.com/YJR3jHjGnW
— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) February 4, 2024
We really like the value on Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco at +2200 on BetMGM. San Francisisco’s run defense is among the worst in Super Bowl history, allowing a staggering 5.6 yards per carry. San Francisco has also allowed five rushing TDs in two playoff games, getting exposed by star RBs such as David Montgomery of the Lions.
Pacheco is averaging 19.5 carries this postseason, including 4.2 yards per carry. He’s punched in a TD in two consecutive playoff games, and should be a major difference maker Sunday. The volume should be there, as he’s averaged 21.8 touches for 94.4 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown per game in the postseason.
- Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Isiah Pacheco (+2200)
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
