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Latest Super Bowl MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes Favored Over Brock Purdy

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NFL Football

Updated Feb 11, 2024 · 10:10 AM PST

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell
Feb 13, 2023; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (left) and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell pose with Vince Lombardi and most valuable player trophies during the Super Bowl 57 Winning Team Head Coach and MVP press conference at the Phoenix Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • Who will win the 2024 Super Bowl MVP award on Sunday?
  • The latest odds favor Patrick Mahomes over Brock Purdy
  • Below, see the full Super Bowl MVP odds, expert picks and longshots

The 2024 Super Bowl MVP will be Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy, according to oddsmakers in Las Vegas. They’ve set the two Super Bowl quarterbacks as the favorites for the MVP trophy, giving a slight edge to the Kansas City pivot.

Super Bowl MVP trends support the notion that a quarterback will win the 2024 trophy. That doesn’t mean there aren’t longshots to consider, including Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, who could have a monster game in front of his girlfriend Taylor Swift.

Let’s look at the latest Super Bowl MVP odds, as we determine the best bets and longshots to consider.

Super Bowl MVP Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) +145
Brock Purdy (49ers) +230
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) +450
Travis Kelce (Chiefs) +1200
Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) +2200
Deebo Samuel (49ers) +2500
Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) +5000
Rashee Rice (Chiefs) +6600
George Kittle (49ers) +8000
Chris Jones (Chiefs) +12500
Nick Bosa (49ers) +12500
L’Jarius Sneed (Chiefs) +17500
Fred Warner (49ers) +20000
Sam Darnold (49ers) +30000

In the current Super Bowl MVP odds, Patrick Mahomes is the +145 favorite, giving him a 40.8% implied chance to repeat as the MVP winner.

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Odds as of Feb. 10, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Sign up for BetMGM using the BetMGM promo code to place a bet on the Super Bowl MVP winner. If already registered at MGM, check out the top NFL betting apps.

Mahomes Favored Over Purdy

Despite San Francisco being slight favorites in the Super Bowl odds, it’s KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is the Super Bowl MVP favorite. The two-time Super Bowl champion is priced at +145 in the latest MVP odds, which has lengthened from his +120 price following conference championships.

It’s not surprising to see Mahomes favored, as the KC pivot has already won the award twice in his career, including in Super Bowl 57 against the Eagles. He’s the leader of this Chiefs offense and on his way to potentially overtaking Tom Brady as the greatest to ever do it.

Brock Purdy isn’t far behind Mahomes in the odds, sitting at +230 at BetMGM. “Mr. Irrelevant” has exceeded expectations since taking over the 49ers starting QB role, leading his team to the Big Game as the final draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. While Mahomes has Super Bowl experience, this will be Purdy’s first go-around.

When picking between Mahomes and Purdy for MVP, we can’t help but lean towards the veteran. It’s hard to envision a Chiefs victory without Mahomes being the driving catalyst. If the 49ers, however, we could envision elite running back Christian McCaffrey being the star of the show.

Super Bowl MVP Public Betting  Splits

The betting public is betting against the trend of quarterbacks winning the Super Bowl MVP, as of Sunday afternoon, DraftKings is reporting 29% of their handle and 22% of their bets counts coming in on 49ers’ running back Chrtistian McCaffrey for Super Bowl MVP.

Furthermore, Travis Kelce, another non-QB, is second in both categories with 15% of the public support.

Super Bowl MVP betting splits from DraftKings

Super Bowl MVP Trends

Quarterbacks have dominated the Super Bowl MVP award, winning it 32 times out of 57 Super Bowls (over 55%). The last non-quarterback to win was wide receiver Cooper Kupp in 2022 (Super Bowl 56). Recently, the dominance has become more pronounced, with a quarterback winning seven of the past ten MVP awards.

Recent Super Bowl MVP Winners

Year Position – MVP Winner Team Final Score
2023 QB – Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs 38-35
2022 WR – Cooper Kupp Los Angeles Rams 23-20
2021 QB – Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9
2020 QB – Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs 31-20
2019 WR – Julian Edelman New England Patriots 13-3
2018 QB – Nick Foles Philadelphia Eagles 41-33
2017 QB – Tom Brady New England Patriots 34-28
2016 LB – Von Miller Denver Broncos 24-10
2015 QB – Tom Brady New England Patriots 28-24
2014 LB – Malcolm Smith Seattle Seahawks 43-8

What’s interesting about the Super Bowl MVP trends is the running back position. 49ers back Christian McCaffrey was recently named NFL Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league with 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. No running back has won Super Bowl MVP since 1998, but McCaffrey’s dual-threat ability gives him a chance.

For those considering betting Travis Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP, consider that no tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP. Kelce’s popularity and connection to Taylor Swift provide a unique storyline in this game. Would the league give him the trophy over Mahomes if both players balled out?

One final trend to note is that the Super Bowl MVP is almost always on the winning team. The only instance of a losing player winning Super Bowl MVP was in 1971 when Dallas Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley took home the honor after falling to the Baltimore Colts 16-13 on a late field goal.

Super Bowl MVP Longshot Picks

When it comes to Super Bowl longshot picks, we don’t hate the idea of sprinkling some money down on Travis Kelce at +1200. However, he isn’t really a true longshot, as he’s the fourth betting choice at BetMGM. You might be better off checking out the Taylor Swift props for some fun Kelce prop wagers.

We really like the value on Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco at +2200 on BetMGM. San Francisisco’s run defense is among the worst in Super Bowl history, allowing a staggering 5.6 yards per carry. San Francisco has also allowed five rushing TDs in two playoff games, getting exposed by star RBs such as David Montgomery of the Lions.

Pacheco is averaging 19.5 carries this postseason, including 4.2 yards per carry. He’s punched in a TD in two consecutive playoff games, and should be a major difference maker Sunday. The volume should be there, as he’s averaged 21.8 touches for 94.4 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown per game in the postseason.

  • Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Isiah Pacheco (+2200)

Check out the best Super Bowl promotions to maximize your value before making an MVP prediction.

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