San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Odds for Super Bowl 58
- Super Bowl 58 kicks off from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada at 6:30 pm EST on Sunday, February 11, 2024
- The NFC is on a run of just 1-7-2 ATS when favored in the Super Bowl
- Get the 49ers vs Chiefs odds, picks and predictions for the Super Bowl here
The Kansas City Chiefs enter Super Bowl 58 looking to defend their title and win their third Lombardi Trophy in the past five years. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers hope to avenge a Super Bowl 54 loss to the Chiefs and win their first title since 1995. The game is expected to be tight, but it’s San Fran that oddsmakers have sided with as favorites in the 49ers vs Chiefs odds.
Read on for the full San Francisco vs Kansas City odds and our top 49ers vs Chiefs prediction here.
49ers vs Chiefs Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | -1.5 (-112) | -124 | 47.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City | +1.5 (-108) | +106 | 47.5 (-110) |
The Super Bowl odds make San Francisco the favorites and the total 47.5 points. Brock Purdy and San Fran are -124 moneyline favorites in the 49ers vs Chiefs odds, giving them an implied probability of 55.36%. Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as of February 10, 2024.
How to Watch San Francisco vs Kansas City
Viewers in the United States can watch Super Bowl 58 on Sunday on CBS, while viewers in Canada can watch on DAZN or TSN.
49ers vs Chiefs Head-to-Head History
The most recent game between these teams came two years ago in 2022 with Kansas City going to San Francisco and winning 44-23. Patrick Mahomes threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns, while Jimmy Garoppolo was still the 49ers’ QB at the time and had 303 yards and two touchdown passes himself.
But obviously the biggest profile recent matchup came in 2020 with the Chiefs coming back from 20-10 down heading into the fourth quarter and pulling off a 31-20 comeback to win Super Bowl 54.
49ers vs Chiefs Public Betting Trends
In NFL public betting, the public is piling up on the defending champion Chiefs who are 2-point underdogs no matter how you look at it. If you’re looking at Super Bowl spread bets, the public is backing Kansas City with 70% of the money and 78% of the bets. To win straight up, moneyline wagers are also on Mahomes and KC at 74% and 65% of the money and bet counts respectively.
Totals bettors had been of the mind that there will be points scored in the game with 59% of the money and 72% of the bets coming in on Over 47.5 as of Saturday. But, switch over to game-day and the Under has become the way more popular choice in Super Bowl betting public betting.
Today, 63% of the money and 76% of the bets are backing Under 47.5.
Looking for up-to-date, 49ers vs Chiefs Super Bowl line movement? See the latest line moves for MVP, moneyline, spread and totals bets from DraftKings as of Sunday afternoon on February 11 below.
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49ers Betting Preview
For all of their dominance over the course of the regular season, San Franciso has had to do something they didn’t do all season to get their past two playoff wins. And that was to come back from a second-half deficit and go on to win.
The 49ers were 12-5 in the regular season and those wins came by 23, 7, 18, 19, 32, 31, 13, 18, 23, 12, 16 and 17 points.
But in the Divisional Round versus the Packers they were down 21-14 entering the fourth quarter before a 52-yard Jake Moody field goal and a late Christian McCaffrey touchdown put them ahead 24-21. McCaffrey had two touchdowns in the game and Brock Purdy threw for 252 yards and 1 touchdown.
In the AFC Title Game the 49ers were again slow out of the gates and in fact looked dead in the water at halftime down 24-7. But five straight scores in the second half put them ahead 34-24. The final score will say 34-31 after a late Lions’ touchdown in the final minute, but make no mistake about it, the Lions’ collapsed in the second half. And if you’re looking to make more Super Bowl prop bets, keep in mind that both of these teams scored three or more times straight in many games this season.
McCaffrey scored another two touchdowns against the Lions and has still scored a touchdown in all six of his career playoff games. It won’t pay much, but CMC is almost free money when thinking about what is a TD prop bet to make for this weekend’s 49ers vs Chiefs props.
Purdy was 20-31 for 267 yards and 1 TD, and despite nursing a shoulder injury, Deebo Samuel came off the 49ers injury report and caught eight passes for 89 yards.
Which team has the advantage in Super Bowl 58? pic.twitter.com/fYvJUVKkdK
— PFF (@PFF) February 6, 2024
Chiefs Betting Preview
Whether San Fran suffers another slow start or not, may not be as much of an issue against the Chiefs. Kansas City averaged just 21.8 PPG (15th) during the regular season and in their ten wins they won by 8, 31, 3, 7, 11, 14, 7, 14, 10, 8 and 1 points.
Since beating the Chargers 31-17 on October 22, the Chiefs only other double-digit wins came over offensively inept teams in the Raiders and Patriots.
That changed in the Wild Card Playoffs where they beat up on an injured Dolphins team to the tune of 26-7.
Kansas City played out a back-and-forth affair in Buffalo in the Divisional Round with the lead changing six times from the middle of the second quarter onwards. The Bills entered the fourth quarter up 24-20 but Isiah Pacheco scored the only touchdown and points in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs eliminated the Bills from postseason play again winning 27-24.
In the AFC Title Game versus the Ravens, points were at a premium and a Pacheco second quarter touchdown that put KC up 14-7, would prove to be enough to secure the win as the Chiefs went on to win 17-10, a result certainly aided by Ravens’ turnovers. Baltimore lost two fumbles and Lamar Jackson was picked off once.
49ers vs Chiefs Head-to-Head Stats
| 12-5 / 9-8 | Record / ATS | 11-6 / 9-7-1 |
| 3rd (28.9) | PPG Scored | 15th (21.8) |
| 2nd | YPG Offense | 9th |
| 4th | Passing YPG | 6th |
| 3rd | Rushing YPG | 19th |
| 3rd (17.5) | PPG Allowed | 2nd (17.3) |
| 8th | YPG Allowed | 2nd |
| 14th | Passing YPG Allowed | 4th |
| 3rd | Rushing YPG Allowed | T-17th |
*Regular season stats
49ers vs Chiefs Prediction
When looking at historical Super Bowl point spreads and totals, there is not much to separate favorites and underdogs and overs and unders. Super Bowl favorites hold a slight, slight edge all-time at 28-27-2, but totals have an even split at 28-28. However, of late, underdogs are 3-0 and the Under is 4-1 in recent Super Bowls. With a point spread this short, you should also not worry much about whether to take the spread or the moneyline in your Super Bowl picks. Typically, the Super Bowl winning team also covers the spread, being 48-7-2.
Looking at these teams individually, the Chiefs have been one of the highest Under teams this season at 14-6, and are 5-1 to the Under in their past six.
That number is even more skewed to the Under in the second halves of games, where they are 18-2 to second half unders, The fourth quarter has seen them go 19-1 to the Under.
In against the spread picks, the Chiefs are 12-7-1 ATS this year in the regular season and playoffs combined. But they come into the Super Bowl as covering machines, having done so in all three playoff games and in five straight overall.
The 49ers are more of an Over team at 11-8 but have been an even 2-2 in their past four games.
In ATS picks, a streak of 2-5 has brought their season record to just 9-10 and they’ve failed to cover the spread in both playoff games.
Super bets: Point spreads, totals, results for every Super Bowl
The winning team is 48-7-2 ATS.
In other words, there have been only 9 Super Bowls in which the favorite has won but failed to cover.https://t.co/UHES5mg70G via @reviewjournal
— Todd Dewey (@tdewey33) February 4, 2024
The 49ers have scored 20 or more points in 10 of their past 11 games, falling just short once, losing 33-19 to the Ravens. As good as their defense has been, they have also given up 21 or more points in five of their past six games.
Chiefs’ games, obviously by the nature of playing in many lower scoring games, have been tight games. Of their six losses, only one came by more than eight points and that came in a Mahomes flu game in Denver. They’ve only given up 21 or more points five times this season, only once in their past eight games and never more than 27.
The 49ers’ near clean bill of health on the 49ers vs Chiefs injury report bodes well for some straight up trends in their favor when all of their stars are in the lineup. With Purdy. Samuel and McCaffrey all playing the full game, San Fran is 15-1 SU, compared to just 6-5 when they don’t play the full game.
But then there’s the Mahomes factor. Mahomes is 10-1-1 as an underdog in his career and is 14-3 SU in the playoffs with his only losses coming to Tom Brady twice and Joe Burrow once.
I don’t think there is a wrong take on this game. San Fran has been the better team over the full course of the season and have a higher number of impact players. But the Chiefs have been the better team right now, which is what matters most. They have the experience, a human cheat code in Mahomes and have proved capable of shutting down the run in recent weeks which is the 49ers biggest strength. Only once in their last five games and twice in their past eight games have the Chiefs given up over 100 yards on the ground to opposing running backs.
- 49ers vs Chiefs Picks: Chiefs (+2) at Bet365. Get all you need to know about one of the top sportsbooks with our Bet365 review here!
Looking for Super Bowl 58 picks, props and predictions? Get more 49ers vs Chiefs coverage below!
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
