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Smart Super Bowl Bets to Make for 49ers vs Chiefs

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Mar 8, 2024 · 8:03 AM PST

49ers celebrate NFC title win
Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; (Left to right) San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23), tight end George Kittle (85), offensive tackle Trent Williams (71), wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19), and linebacker Fred Warner (54), and quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrate after winning the NFC Championship football game against the Detroit Lions at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • See some popular alternate bets on the Super Bowl and why we think they are good Super Bowl bets
  • Will the last team to score win the game? See Super Bowl props for this and more
  • Read below for our best smart super bowl bets to make for this year’s big game

The betting markets are vast for Super Bowl 58. And while your instinct may be to look for the big plus-money bets that pay a lot by betting a little, sharp sports bettors know that some of the best smart Super Bowl bets are the complete opposite. That being, those of much shorter odds, but backed up by plenty of data from past years and recent games.

Smart Super Bowl Bets

Super Bowl Picks Odds Sportsbook
Will Any Team Score 3 Straight Times – YES -165 DraftKings
Shortest TD Scored – UNDER 1.5 Yards -145 DraftKings
Will Last Team to Score Win? – YES -215 DraftKings

Our top smart super bowl bets to make in Super Bowl 58 include bets on will a team score three straight times, the shortest touchdown scored and if the last team to score will win the game. Check out all of the top NFL betting apps and get your DraftKings Sportsbook promo for 49ers vs Chiefs here!

Smart Super Bowl Picks: Will a Team Score 3 Straight Times

At first glance the obvious thought on this Super Bowl prop is that it won’t hit when thinking about how to bet on the Super Bowl. You have two good teams, two of the best teams actually, going head-to-head and you envision it being a slugfest both ways with neither team scoring three times in a row.

And sometimes that is true. Neither team scored three straight times last year and the “No” is 3-2 in the past five years. But one of those two times where it did happen was in Super Bowl 54 when these teams played each other. In that game, the 49ers scored three straight times before the Chiefs went on to score three straight times themselves in the fourth quarter to pull out the win.

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In the past ten years, there is an even split on this prop at 5-5.

But Super Bowl 51 saw Atlanta score three times in a row and New England five.

In Super Bowl 49 there were three straight scores and in Super Bowl 48 there were seven straight scores each by the Seahawks.

Let’s take this one step further and look at these individual teams this season during the regular season and the playoffs.

San Francisco games have seen a team score three straight times in 12/19 games. They did it themselves in 10 of those 12 including scoring five straight times versus the Lions last week.

For Kansas City, they have seen a team score three straight times at a lower rate in 11/20 games. They did it themselves in nine of those 11 games, including once in the playoffs versus Miami scoring four straight times.

That was the third time they scored four straight scores this season, while also scoring six and seven times in a row once. They played in one game versus the Jets where both teams scored three times in a row.

Obviously, for both teams, many of these instances came versus inferior opponents, so consider that when making your NFL Super Bowl bets. But both have done it many times this season including in the playoffs, while also having it happen against them a couple times as well.

Pick: Either Team to Score Three Straight Times Yes (-165)

Smart Super Bowl Picks: Shortest Touchdown Scored

Sure, the plus-money of +115 for the Over 1.5 yards on the shortest touchdown scored looks a bit more appealing but time and time again the Under has proven the way to bet this Super Bowl prop.

Last year between the Chiefs and Eagles in Super Bowl 57 there were two 1-yard touchdowns. And also touchdown scores of 4, 4 and 5 yards. Check.

Super Bowl 56? A 1-yard score. Check. Super Bowl 55? A 1-yard score. Check. The last time these teams played in Super Bowl 54? There were three 1-yard scores. Check.

Super Bowl 53 was the last time the shortest touchdown was Over 1.5 yards, however, there was a 2-yard score. The only other time in the past ten years where the Over hit was in Super 49, where the shortest scores were 3, 3, 4 and 3 yards.

Otherwise, Super Bowl 52 had a 1-yard score, plus touchdowns of 4 and 5 yards. In Super Bowl 51 there were scores of 1 ,2, 5 and 6 yards.

Then in Super Bowl 50, the shortest score would have been 0 yards as there was a fumble recovered in the end zone. But there were also 1 and 2-yard touchdowns.

And then let’s look at one more to round out the past ten years and in Super Bowl 48 there was also a 1-yard touchdown run.

So that puts the Under on an 8-2 run in the past ten Super Bowls, plus a whole slew of other short touchdown scores in that time too. The Under has also cashed in 21 of the past 30 Super Bowls.

Pick: Shortest Touchdown Scored Under 1.5 Yards (-145)

Smart Super Bowl Picks: Last Team to Score Wins

If you choose to bet the “No” on this one, you simply just don’t like money and making smart Super Bowl bets.

In each of the past ten Super Bowls the team to score last went on to win the game. Whether that be in blowout fashion or in a furious comeback.

That includes last year with the Chiefs scoring last versus the Eagles. It also includes the Bucs scoring last versus the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55 and the Chiefs scoring last over the 49ers in Super Bowl 54 if we want to look at results where these teams were involved.

But we can go back even further and see that this prop is on a 14-0 run to the “Yes” as well.

Pick: Last Team to Score Wins Yes (-215)

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