NFL Computer Picks for Super Bowl 2024 Compared to Expert Picks
- The 2023-24 NFL season wraps up on Sunday and it’s time to compare the SBD computer picks and our experts’ picks against the spread for the final big game
- SBD’s score-predicting formula has nearly a 53% winning percentage against the spread over the entire NFL season
- See its’ computer pick for Super Bowl 58 as well as SBD’s expert picks below
It all comes down to this. 49ers vs Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. There are a ton of ways to bet on the big game this Sunday but the most important bets come in the form of side and total, when making your Super Bowl ATS picks and Over/Under bets. Read on as we cover our SBD formula pick for a Super Bowl winner, compared to our top expert Super Bowl picks.
Using a variety of team and player stats, trends, and some injury info, the SBD formula has predicted scores for every NFL game throughout the regular season and playoffs. Using the margin of victory and ATS margin of victory for each game, the formula’s scores can translate into NFL computer picks for the playoffs and Super Bowl. The SBD score-predicting formula was created by SBD’s Editor-in-Chief Matt McEwan.
Let’s take a look at what the SBD computer picks formula is predicting for Sunday’s 49ers vs Chiefs game, while comparing it to our SBD NFL expert picks against the spread, correct score and top prop picks.
Computer Picks for Super Bowl | Expert Picks for Super Bowl
NFL Computer Picks for Super Bowl 58
SportsBettingDime’s score-predicting formula has gone a combined 145-129-10 ATS (52.9%) against the spread over the course of the regular season and playoffs, as per McEwan. He’s broken it down into several more data points though as well.
When it comes to totals, it’s been spitting out winners at an even greater rate going 153-128-3 (54.4%) when picking overs and unders.
Let’s look at some of the math on the potential winnings you could have made this season had you bet $100 on every ATS and totals prediction.
On the 145 ATS wins assuming -110 odds, you would have made $13,195, but then given back $12,900 on the 129 losses, leaving you with a profit of $295.
For totals, you would have made $13,923 on the 153 wins, but given back $12,800, netting a profit of $395.
All together, that would’ve made you $690 on the season.
Let’s look at just a couple more data points before we move onto the formula’s Super Bowl prediction. The SBD Formula has been particularily strong in predicting the outcomes for both of these teams this season.
For the Chiefs games, it’s gone 11-9 ATS and 10-10 in totals. In 49ers’ game, it’s gone 10-8-1 ATS and 10-9 on totals.
Read on to see if you feel confident in siding with our computer predictions or if you want to tail some of our expert picks for the big game as well.
Although oddsmakers across the best apps to bet on Super Bowl are predicting this be a very close game, our SBD computer picks see the 49ers winning by almost a touchdown margin. With a predicted score of 20.5 to 14.4, San Fran would win by 6.1 points, easily covering the current spread of 2 points.
SBD Formula Super Bowl Score Prediction
- San Francisco 49ers : 20.5
- Kansas City Chiefs: 14.4
When breaking down the computer picks for the total points for the Super Bowl, our formula is predicting an even bigger discrepancy. Most NFL betting apps have this game lined at 47.5 points. With the projected score of 20.5-14.4, that would come in at 34.9 points, a number that is a good 12.6 points under that total.
So if you’re a believer in the SBD formula continuing its’ streak, there is significant value on the 49ers and to an even greater extend, the under.
SBD Formula’s Super Bowl Picks:
- Moneyline Pick: 49ers (-2)
- ATS Pick: 49ers
- Total Pick: Under 47.5
Expert Picks for 2024 Super Bowl
SportsBettingDime’s experts have been submitting winning NFL picks all season. They have each shared their predicted score for the Super Bowl, best picks against the spread, and favorite Super Bowl prop for this Sunday’s 49ers vs Chiefs game.
Ryan Metivier | Zach Reger | Bob Duff | Brady Trettenero
Ryan Metivier – Editor
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Chiefs 23-20
- Best Bets: Chiefs +2, Under 47.5
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Shortest TD Drive Under 1.5 yards
I don’t think there is a wrong take on this game. San Fran has been the better team over the full course of the season and have a higher number of impact players. But the Chiefs have been the better team right now, which is what matters most. They have the experience, a human cheat code in Mahomes and have proved capable of shutting down the run in recent weeks which is the 49ers’ biggest strength. Only once in their last five games and twice in their past eight games have the Chiefs given up over 100 yards on the ground to opposing running backs.
Mahomes is 10-1-1 as an underdog in his career and is 14-3 SU in the playoffs with his only losses coming to Tom Brady twice and Joe Burrow once. I think I’ll feel foolish not backing Mahomes over Purdy here. If Purdy beats me, I tip my hat.
Also, let’s look at the shortest touchdown scores in recent Super Bowls from the past ten years. Last year between the Chiefs and Eagles in Super Bowl 57 there were two 1-yard touchdowns. In Super Bowl 56 there was 1-yard score, Super Bowl 55 a 1-yard score and the last time these teams played in Super Bowl 54 there were three 1-yard scores.
Super Bowl 53 was the last time the shortest touchdown was Over 1.5 yards, however, there was a 2-yard score. The only other time in the past ten years where the Over hit was in Super 49, where the shortest scores were 3, 3, 4 and 3 yards.
Otherwise, Super Bowl 52 had a 1-yard score, plus touchdowns of 4 and 5 yards. In Super Bowl 51 there were scores of 1, 2, 5 and 6 yards. Then in Super Bowl 50, the shortest score would have been 0 yards as there was a fumble recovered in the endzone. But there were also 1 and 2-yard touchdowns. And finally in Super Bowl 48 there was also a 1-yard touchdown run.
So that puts the Under on an 8-2 run in the past ten Super Bowls, plus it’s 21-9 in the past 30. You can bet the Under at -155 odds at the DraftKings app.
Zach Reger- Social Media Manager
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: 49ers 23-20
- Best Bet: Under 47.5
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Second Half Under 23.5
This game should be a close, low-scoring affair that comes down to the wire. It is a rematch of Super Bowl 54, and the 49ers are looking to get their revenge. They have been the better team than the Chiefs all season long, but over the past couple of weeks, Kansas City has looked impressive, and San Francisco has had to come back to win both their playoff games.
Despite that, the 49ers still have the better roster, so I give them the slight edge. Kansas City’s defense is a talented unit, but San Francisco’s playmakers should still be productive, especially getting an extra week to prepare and game plan. The 49ers defense will need to come to play early on if they want to win their sixth Super Bowl in franchise history.
While I like the 49ers to win and cover, I feel much better about the under. The total might have soared over in last year’s Super Bowl, but this is a much different Chiefs team. They rely on defense and have been running the ball with Isiah Pacheco much more. The total has also gone under in four of the last five Super Bowls.
Even if the Chiefs score early, they struggle in the second half. Andy Reid has had extra time to scheme and script plays, so Kansas City will most likely find the endzone early in this one. Once the game gets going, however, I expect both defenses to be sharp.
In the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs scored just three points in the second half. The second half total is set at 23.5, and I do not see more than three total touchdowns being scored in the second half of what should be a tight ball game. Second half unders are 18-2 in Kansas City’s 20 games this season, so I am rolling with that trend to continue.
Bob Duff – Sports Writer
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Chiefs 27-17
- Best Bet: Chiefs (+2.5)
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown
It’s simple – the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. That’s the difference maker. Kansas City has won this season with its’ defense. Every time the 49ers have faced a stingy defense this season, they’ve struggled.
Also, McCaffrey has proven to be a TD scoring machine since donning the red, white and gold of the 49ers.
In 37 games with San Francisco, McCaffrey has wound up breaking the plane of the goal line for six points on 33 occasions. He’s played six postseason games over his NFL career. In each of those games, McCaffrey has scored a TD.
In this year’s two playoff games for the 49ers, McCaffrey has accounted for two TDs in each of the games.
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Brady Trettenero – Editor
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Chiefs 23-20
- Best Bet: Under 47.5 Points
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: George Kittle Under 51.5 Receiving Yards
I’m leaning towards the Chiefs as the side to play in Super Bowl 58, but my most confident pick is the under of 47.5 points. I think the Kansas City defense will ultimately be the star of this game. This unit finished second in points allowed (17.2) during the regular and held dynamic Miami and Baltimore’s offenses to 10 points and under in the postseason.
Kansas City’s elite defense is a key reason I’ve also selected the “under” on George Kittle’s receiving yards prop as my best NFL player props. The Chiefs allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season, and recently held prominent TEs Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, and Mark Andrews each to 45 receiving yards or fewer.
The public loves to bet the “Over” in the Super Bowl, as exemplified in the NFL public betting trends. However, there’s been a trend of lower-scoring Super Bowls, with the “under” hitting in four of the last five Super Bowls. Furthermore, the under is on a 5-1 run in KC games, primarily due to the team’s stifling defense.
I expect both teams to rely heavily on their run games Sunday, especially the 49ers, which will help run out the game clock. The Super Bowl total has actually come down a half point from its 48 opening number despite the public betting the other way, and a few of the sharper books even have it sitting at 47 now.
You can see more of our Super Bowl content below:
- Current Gatorade Odds & Betting Splits
- Tracking the Super Bowl’s Biggest Bets
- Super Bowl Betting Promos
- How to Bet on the Super Bowl Online
- Printable Super Bowl Props
- Printable Super Bowl Squares
- How to Bet on Super Bowl Props
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
