- The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-point home favorites over the Miami Dolphins in the TNF NFL matchup
- TNF betting record: 1-0-1 (2.82 units won)
- The Jags have won two straight from the Fins. Can they do it again? Read our TNF preview below
Last week, the NFL gave us an all-Ohio TNF matchup. This week, it’s Northeast Florida vs South Beach as the Jacksonville Jaguars play host to the Miami Dolphins.
Both the Dolphins and Jaguars gave 2019 AFC playoff teams all they could handle last Sunday before each was defeated by the margin of a field goal.
These two Florida-based squads clash at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. Kickoff is at 8:20 pm ET. The game time forecast is for 87 degrees with rain and a 10 mph wind.
Jacksonville is a three-point favorite in the Dolphins vs Jaguars odds. That was the also opening point spread.
Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
|Miami Dolphins||+138||+3 (-110)||O 48 (-110)|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||-157||-3 (-110)||U 48 (-110)|
Odds taken Sept. 23rd at DraftKings
Miami (0-2) lost 31-28 to the Buffalo Bills. Jacksonville (1-1) fell 33-30 to the Tennessee Titans.
A Hairy Debate
Opposing quarterbacks Gardner Minshew of the Jags and Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Dolphins took playful digs at each other this week about their facial hair. Fitzpatrick suggested his beard was more impressive than Minshew’s mustache.
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 22, 2020
Minshew countered by insisting he didn’t want to disrespect an elder . . . especially someone so much elder. Minshew is 24. Fitzpatrick is 37.
Fitz-Magic looked his age in Miami’s Week 1 loss to New England. Fitzpatrick was picked off three times by the Patriots.
Against the Bills, Fitzpatrick completed 31-of-47 passes for 328 yards and two TDs. Fitzpatrick shows 13 TDs against five interceptions in eight games facing Jacksonville.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gardner Minshew are facing off on TNF tomorrow night, which feels like must-see TV. Anything could happen. Would not surprise me if one of them picks off the other somehow.
— Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) September 23, 2020
Minshew has completed 75.4% of his passes this season. He’s thrown for six TDs against two picks. In Jacksonville’s season-opening win over the Indianapolis Colts, Minshew became the fourth QB in NFL history to complete 95% of his passes in a game. He was 19-of-20 for 173 yards and three TDs, posting a career-high 142.3 rating.
Minshew mania has overtaken Jacksonville. He’s the first Jags QB to throw for three TDs in three straight games. However, that stat might speak more to the historically weak Jacksonville QB room than to Minshew’s excellence.
The Defense Rests – Times Two
Jacksonville reached the 2017 AFC Championship game bolstered by a defense that allowed the NFL’s second-fewest points. Miami’s famed 53 Defense was a key element to the Dolphins’ perfect season in 1972.
Today, those stellar units are just long-ago memories. The Jags are 23rd overall in the league, allowing 399.5 yards per game. The Fins are even worse at 30th (440.5).
This Dolphins defense has to have Jacksonville totally confused! They won’t know whether to run it or throw it against us Thursday night!
— johjoh 🐬 (@JerzeyJ3) September 20, 2020
Miami is 26th against the pass (276.5 ypg) and Jacksonville is 30th (294). The Dolphins also can’t stop the run (164 ypg, 29th). At least the Jaguars are a top-10 run defense (10th, 105.5).
Three Miami defensive starters – LB Shaq Lawson and CBs Byron Jones and Xavien Howard – are listed as either questionable or doubtful for Thursday’s game.
#Jaguars DC Todd Wash: defense needs to do a better job on first and second down; effectiveness of pass rush depends a lot on down & distance
— Lauren Brooks (@1010XLLauren) September 22, 2020
The Jags were second in the NFL with 53 sacks in 2017. Following the departures of Calais Campbell, Dante Fowler and Yannick Ngakoue from that defense, this season the Jags own two sacks and a minimal four QB hurries.
A dozen NFL teams have collected more sacks than the combined five from the Dolphins and Jaguars.
History and logic suggest that the ‘Under’ is the play here. The total is set at 48.
In the last seven Jacksonville-Miami games, the total has never gone over 43. It’s topped 40 once. The ‘Under’ paid in six of those games.
A vast improvement on offense pic.twitter.com/iEbDrIHVIq
— Generation Jaguar (@generationjag) September 21, 2020
But these are two epically bad defenses. Six of Jacksonville’s last nine games went ‘Over’, as did four of the last five Dolphins games.
Jacksonville will win and cover and the total is going ‘Over’.
Best Bet: Over 48 points (-110)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.