Upcoming Match-ups

Drew Lock & Daniel Jones’ 2019 NFL OROY Odds Fade as QBs Settle Into Backup Roles; Is There Any Reason to Bet Either?

Eli Manning and Daniel Jones take practice snaps.
Daniel Jones figures to be doing a lot of watching veteran Eli Manning quarterbacking the New York Giants in his rookie season. Photo from @willbrinson (Twitter)
  • Daniel Jones was the surprising sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft
  • Drew Lock was drafted in the second round by the Broncos
  • Kyler Murray will be the Day 1 starter in Arizona – is he the OROY favorite?

There was nothing blocking Daniel Jones or Drew Lock from getting to the stage to shake Roger Goodell’s hand during the 2019 NFL Draft.

A couple of veteran pivots, however, will likely stand in their way of hitting the field for most of their rookie season.

Not surprisingly, their NFL Rookie of the Year odds have taken a hit in the process.

Odds to Win 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

Player Team 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds at Bovada
Kyler Murray Cardinals +150
Josh Jacobs Raiders +650
Dwayne Haskins Washington +750
Mecole Hardman Chiefs +1800
Miles Sanders Eagles +2000
David Montgomery Bears +2200
AJ Brown Titans +2500
N’Keal Harry Patriots +2500
Marquise Brown Ravens +2500
TJ Hockenson Lions +3000
Drew Lock Broncos +3500
Daniel Jones Giants +3500

*Odds taken 07/11/2019. Click the link in the table for the full list of rookie odds.

Lock, the Broncos’ second round pick out of Missouri, was listed at an average of +1800 on June 17th. He’s now +2700. Jones, who the Giants drafted sixth overall, was listed at an average of +2300 on June 17th, and has also dipped to +2700. It’s an even more precipitous fall on Bovada, where they have faded to +3500.

Let’s find out if either is a bet worth making.

Jones Still a Work in Progress

The football world took a collective gasp of disbelief when the New York Giants called Jones’ name on draft night. It’s not that the Duke product wasn’t expected to be taken, it’s just that, with so many talents on the board at six, the G-Men took a QB that may have been the sixth rated at that position.

His stats are ordinary: 2,674 yards on a 60.5% completion clip, with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also averaged a pedestrian 6.8 yards per attempt, his highest average in three seasons as a Blue Devil.

Here’s a line that may have been relevant seven years ago: at least the Giants have Eli Manning. The veteran pivot, despite a massive decline in skills, is still the most competent player at that position, which will allow Jones the chance to develop.

Lock’s Snaps Dependent on Flacco’s Effectiveness

While it won’t do much for his rookie of the year campaign, Lock may have found himself in the right situation to work into the Broncos’ pivot of the future, rather than getting thrown into the fire immediately with an easier chance to flame out.

By all indications, Joe Flacco has found a new lease on life in the Mile High City, and has Lock battling for the backup spot with Kevin Hogan. But, unlike Jones, Lock is a more polished product. In his senior season, he tossed for 3,498 yards, a completion rate 62.9%, at a healthy 8.0 yards per attempt. He also had 28 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions.

Should Flacco fade like he did last season in Baltimore – eventually giving way to Lamar Jackson – there is an opportunity for Lock to step in and make a case for the NFL’s top offensive rookie.

Are Either Worth a Bet?

If you’re going to make a bet on a quarterback to win it, that should go on Kyler Murray (+150). The guy is walking into a system tailor-made for his skills. But beware: just one QB has taken the award in the last six years, and that was an unearthed gem by the name of Dak Prescott in 2016.

The winner four of the last six years has been a running back, and there is some value for you to look at. Josh Jacobs (+650) will get every chance to be the man in Oakland, and Miles Sanders (+2000) could break the running-back-by-committee ethos in Philadelphia.

Only three wide receivers in the last 20 years have lifted the trophy, but few will get a chance to step into an offence like Mecole Hardman (+1800) will on the Chiefs. Burner Tyreke Hill will almost certainly face suspension, leaving him to be the field stretcher in Andy Reid’s offence, being manned by MVP Patrick Mahomes. Good things can happen.

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.