Drew Lock & Daniel Jones’ 2019 NFL OROY Odds Fade as QBs Settle Into Backup Roles; Is There Any Reason to Bet Either?

• Daniel Jones was the surprising sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft
• Drew Lock was drafted in the second round by the Broncos
• Kyler Murray will be the Day 1 starter in Arizona – is he the OROY favorite?

There was nothing blocking Daniel Jones or Drew Lock from getting to the stage to shake Roger Goodell’s hand during the 2019 NFL Draft.

A couple of veteran pivots, however, will likely stand in their way of hitting the field for most of their rookie season.

Not surprisingly, their NFL Rookie of the Year odds have taken a hit in the process.

Odds to Win 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

Odds taken 07/11/2019. 

Lock, the Broncos’ second round pick out of Missouri, was listed at an average of +1800 on June 17th. He’s now +2700. Jones, who the Giants drafted sixth overall, was listed at an average of +2300 on June 17th, and has also dipped to +2700. It’s an even more precipitous fall at some sportsbooks, fading all the way to +3500.

Let’s find out if either is a bet worth making.

Jones Still a Work in Progress

The football world took a collective gasp of disbelief when the New York Giants called Jones’ name on draft night. It’s not that the Duke product wasn’t expected to be taken, it’s just that, with so many talents on the board at six, the G-Men took a QB that may have been the sixth rated at that position.

Yooo @EAMaddenNFL, why ya'll do Daniel Jones like that? ? #NYGiants pic.twitter.com/41cAr41vW7

— Yahoo Sports NFL (@YahooSportsNFL) July 3, 2019

His stats are ordinary: 2,674 yards on a 60.5% completion clip, with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also averaged a pedestrian 6.8 yards per attempt, his highest average in three seasons as a Blue Devil.

Duke QB Daniel Jones dropping the ball into the bucket for a TD #NFLDraft #Duke pic.twitter.com/uiGYmo4BBW

— Brian Johannes (@Draft_Brian) December 5, 2018

Here’s a line that may have been relevant seven years ago: at least the Giants have Eli Manning. The veteran pivot, despite a massive decline in skills, is still the most competent player at that position, which will allow Jones the chance to develop.

Lock’s Snaps Dependent on Flacco’s Effectiveness

While it won’t do much for his rookie of the year campaign, Lock may have found himself in the right situation to work into the Broncos’ pivot of the future, rather than getting thrown into the fire immediately with an easier chance to flame out.

Denver trades up to get Drew Lock ? pic.twitter.com/hQgeCHEzs3

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 26, 2019

By all indications, Joe Flacco has found a new lease on life in the Mile High City, and has Lock battling for the backup spot with Kevin Hogan. But, unlike Jones, Lock is a more polished product. In his senior season, he tossed for 3,498 yards, a completion rate 62.9%, at a healthy 8.0 yards per attempt. He also had 28 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions.

Joe Flacco isn't in the business to be a mentor to rookie QB Drew Lock ? pic.twitter.com/aLALA9Vx42

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) May 13, 2019

Should Flacco fade like he did last season in Baltimore – eventually giving way to Lamar Jackson – there is an opportunity for Lock to step in and make a case for the NFL’s top offensive rookie.

Are Either Worth a Bet?

If you’re going to make a bet on a quarterback to win it, that should go on Kyler Murray (+150). The guy is walking into a system tailor-made for his skills. But beware: just one QB has taken the award in the last six years, and that was an unearthed gem by the name of Dak Prescott in 2016.

Miles Sanders big TD run Vs one of the toughest ranked run defenses. #DevyWatch pic.twitter.com/ZGrUIqx3Nh

— Greg Brandt (@devywarehouse) October 13, 2018

The winner four of the last six years has been a running back, and there is some value for you to look at. Josh Jacobs (+650) will get every chance to be the man in Oakland, and Miles Sanders (+2000) could break the running-back-by-committee ethos in Philadelphia.

Mecole Hardman is the most underrated receiver in college football @MecoleHardman4 pic.twitter.com/L8dgBYqtCB

— savannah jones (@sav_katherine) May 20, 2018

Only three wide receivers in the last 20 years have lifted the trophy, but few will get a chance to step into an offence like Mecole Hardman (+1800) will on the Chiefs. Burner Tyreek Hill will almost certainly face suspension, leaving him to be the field stretcher in Andy Reid’s offence, being manned by MVP Patrick Mahomes. Good things can happen.