- Get our top against the spread picks for this weekend for October 1-2
- Can the Ravens go on the the road and cover in our ATS picks as underdogs?
- Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 4 below
In this week’s expert NFL picks against the spread the Ravens have become the most popular pick as the Browns starting QB Deshaun Watson is now questionable on the injury report. We also have conflicting predictions in the AFC East rivalry between the Dolphins and Bills.
NFL Expert Picks Today
|Ryan Metivier||Bob Duff||Zach Reger|
|Vikings (-4.5)||Dolphins (+3)||Ravens (+1.5)|
|Chiefs (-8.5)||Ravens (+1.5)||Bills (-2.5)|
|Patriots (+6.5)||Steelers (-2.5)||Saints (-3)|
|Record: 1-7-1||Record: 0-8-1||Record: 5-3-1|
Looking at the table above for our top expert NFL against the spread picks for Week 4, we have picks on eight different teams this weekend, so there’s something for everyone here with tons of opinions on various games.
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I had my Browns -1 all written up and ready to go and then I read that Deshaun Watson can’t throw at practice and is questionable to play this weekend. So I’ll have to pull an audible here. But it was hard to do. I feel almost every game this weekend has injury concerns for key players, short rest, travel, bad teams playing against each other, etc.
So here we are. Settling on the 0-3 Vikings as 4.5-point road favorites over the 0-3 Panthers. So I guess this one qualifies as two bad teams playing too. It also has injury concerns. Or it did. Carolina rookie QB Bryce Young has been cleared to play after sitting out with an ankle injury last week. So Andy Dalton goes back to the bench, which may be a bad thing, at least in the short term.
Dalton threw for 361 yards and 2 TDs last week in a 37-27 loss to Seattle. In Young’s first two games he only threw for 146 yards in Week 1 and 153 yards in Week 2. Combined he’s thrown 2 TDs and 2 INTs. The Panthers scored 10 and 17 points in those first two games with Young.
The Panthers still have secondary concerns with Jaycee Horn on IR and Xavier Woods out this week. Now here comes Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. Cousins leads the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns and Jefferson leads in receiving yards. If the Vikings can somehow protect the football and reverse the trend that sees them owning the worst turnover differential of -7, they should be able to outscore Carolina and cover for my NFL picks against the spread.
I might just have to bet opposite all of my instincts as it wasn’t pretty last week. I have to change something and while betting on a team to win by over a touchdown and almost double digit favorites isn’t something I love doing, perhaps this one qualifies.
The Chiefs are averaging 26.0 PPG (9th), and giving up just 13.3 (4th).
The Jets score just 14.0 PPG (32nd) and allow 20.3 (12th).
Now sure, that defensive figure is pretty good. But the Bills were off in Week 1 and New York had the momentum to rise up after Aaron Rodgers’ injury. The Patriots don’t have a good offense so keeping them to 15 points wasn’t shocking. But they also let Dallas hang 30 on them.
The reality that Rodgers isn’t coming back and Zach Wilson seems to be the guy for now is setting in and that’s not been great for the moral.
The Chiefs are just as capable of putting up 20, 25, 30 points versus the Jets and it’s unlikely Wilson and the Jets can get past the 10-14 point range.
Zach Wilson on if it’s easy for him to ignore all the outside noise:
“It is. I feel like, it’s been tough obviously these 3 years, & so I feel like I’m in a good spot mentally with where I am, & I’m confident in my abilities & I’m confident in this team. All that matters is what… pic.twitter.com/9JbnYa7hip
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) September 28, 2023
The Pats may be 1-2 while the Cowboys are 2-1 but I think these teams may be a little closer than than the pointspread may imply. The Cowboys got to take advantage of the Giants and Jets, two teams that have proved non-competitive thus far.
Then last week versus another team that was expected to be non-competitive. they were down the whole game and lost 28-16 in Arizona. In that game, they allowed the Cards to run all over them for 222 yards. The Cowboys are actually just 25th in rushing yards allowed per game and give up the third-highest yards per rush (5.3), which plays into the hands of New England (14th in rushing) who will want to use their two-headed running back duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and Zeke Elliott to move the chains.
But it’s not just the running game. No one will be touting the Pats offense as explosive, but Mac Jones does rank 10th in passing yards, compared to Dak Prescott who is 19th.
Defensively, Dallas ranks fourth and New England sixth in opponent plays for game as well. So this game has the potential to be played at a slower pace and what I feel will be kept close til the end. I’ll take the Pats as almost a touchdown underdog in my expert NFL picks against the spread this week.
Miami was 3-0 ATS against the Bills last season, covering twice at Buffalo, including in the AFC Wild Card playoffs. The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight division games.
Buffalo is struggling when it comes to covering with a 6-9 ATS slate through the last 15 games. The Bills are 3-6 ATS in their past nine home games.
Stunned in overtime by the Colts, the Baltimore Ravens figure to arrive in Cleveland in a bad mood. Meanwhile, the Browns will be feeling satisfied after smacking the Titans.
Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games at Cleveland. The Ravens are also 6-3 SU in the last nine road games against the Browns.
This is truly the tale of two cities. Pittsburgh is 5-0 both straight up and ATS in the club’s past five road games. Houston is 1-4 ATS in the team’s last five home games.
The Steelers are also 5-1 ATS in the last seven games against the Texans. TJ Watt and company ruin his brother JJ Watt’s Ring of Honor day in Houston.
The Ravens and Browns face off in what should be a low-scoring AFC North battle. Both defenses have been strong to start the year, so this pick comes down to which quarterback will make more plays. Despite the 27-3 victory over the Titans last week, Deshaun Watson is not that guy. Backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson may get a chance to be that guy if Watson can’t go.
In his career, Lamar Jackson is 9-4 straight up as an underdog in regular season games. I love getting points in a divisional game where the Ravens could win outright.
Browns are listing QB Deshaun Watson, who barely threw this week due to a shoulder injury, as questionable for Sunday’s game vs. the Ravens.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 29, 2023
I get it. The Dolphins just put up 70 points on the Broncos, but the Bills are a much different team. Miami will come back to Earth, and while they are still explosive on offense, this seems like a spot for Buffalo. After losing on Monday Night Football to the Aaron Rodgersless Jets, the Bills have had this game on their radar. They did not have to sweat against the Raiders or Commanders, so they will be ready to go against their division rival.
Buffalo has beaten Miami in nine of their last ten matchups, and I expect that to continue on Sunday.
Jameis Winston revenge game!
Derek Carr still has a chance to play, but it seems unlikely. Regardless of who New Orleans has under center, I like them to take care of business against the Buccaneers.
Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s offense ran into a wall on Monday night against the Eagles, and it does not get any easier this week against the Saints defense. The Bucs have not been able to run the ball all season, and that will continue against New Orleans’s stout rush defense. Mike Evans has been a bright spot for Tampa Bay, but now he faces Marshon Lattimore, who has frustrated Evans and limited his production on the field.
On the other side of the ball, Alvin Kamara returns for the Saints. New Orleans could not stop the Eagles’s rushing attack to save their lives. The Saints will take advantage of Tampa Bay’s defense, while the Bucs will struggle on offense. Give me the Saints to win by more than a field goal.
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