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Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 9

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Nov 7, 2022 · 10:38 AM PST

expert NFL picks against the spread
Oct 30, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams (30) celebrates a touchdown against Miami Dolphins with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) and wide receiver Kalif Raymond (11) during the first half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Junfu Han-USA TODAY Sports
  • Our NFL experts predict their top picks against the spread for NFL Week 9
  • For Week 9, we have picks on ten different teams across the 12 games in Sunday and Monday
  • Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 9

Week 9 is here and our weekly ATS predictions are back with our top expert NFL picks against the spread for this weekend. Our NFL ATS picks cover plenty of games this weekend with picks on ten different teams.

After a 7-4 combined ATS record in Week 8, we’ve brought our season record to 49-32-3. We’ll look to stay hot in Week 9 with our top ATS picks.

Each week we’ll make our top picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.

Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 9

Matt McEwan Ryan Metivier Zach Reger Bob Duff
Vikings (-3) Lions (+3.5) Lions (+3.5) Dolphins (-4)
Bills (-11) Bucs (-3) Bears (+4.5) Ravens (-2.5)
Seahawks (+2) Falcons (+3) Chargers (-3) Seahawks (+2)
6-9 Season Record 12-11-1 Season Record 17-6-1 Season Record 14-6-1 Season Record

Odds as of November 4. Check out this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on NFL Week 9 this weekend

The most popular picks among our expert NFL picks against the spread this week include plays on the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks.

 

 

Matt McEwan

  • Vikings (-3) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Commanders are riding a little three-game winning streak, with the two most recent games seeing Taylor Heinicke under center. I don’t see this as any sort of awakening by Washington, though, rather the lousy opponents they have played in that time—Chicago, Green Bay, and Indianapolis.

Minnesota is 6-1 with their only loss coming in primetime (Kirk Cousins’ kryptonite) against the still-undefeated Eagles. Philadelphia was able to pressure Cousins all night and the secondary didn’t allow anything easy. Washington will not be able to do that to Minnesota and the game is not in primetime.

  • Bills (-11) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Jets had a fun run winning four straight since Zach Wilson’s return. But just like I said above about Washington, the winning streak was more about their opponents than the Jets playing really well. They got Pittsburgh (half Trubisky and half Pickett), Miami with Skylar Thompson under center, Green Bay, and Denver.

They were brought back down to earth by the Patriots last week and it will only get worse for the Jets in Week 9 against the Bills. This is the best team in the league. This game will not be close.

  • Seahawks (+2) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Arizona’s offense has come back to life since DeAndre Hopkins’ return to the lineup, but I don’t believe they’re fully back yet. Their defense isn’t anything to hang your hat on either, as they’ve allowed the third-most points in the league thus far.

When Seattle has lost this season, it has been teams who have run the ball well against them. The 49ers racked up 189 rushing yards, the Falcons posted 179, and the Saints went for a whopping 235. Arizona did rush for 144 in their Week 6 matchup, but 100 of them were Kyler Murray on ten attempts, good for his second-most in a game this season.

Murray will continue to look to attack with his arm and I don’t believe he can do that as efficiently as Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense right now.

Ryan Metivier

It what looks like a theme for me this week, I’m focusing on a game with two bad teams. How do you like either of these slumping sides? Do you like the 3-5 Packers, 3-5 ATS, losers of four in a row and who are 1-3 on the road? Or do you like the 1-6 Lions, 3-4 ATS who have lost five in a row and are 1-3 at home. Both look gross.

But in this divisional rivalry, the Lions usually show up at home. They won their last game at Ford Field against Green Bay 37-30. They lost the previous two 31-24 and 23-20, and won the previous two outright. So outside of the one six-point loss, they would’ve covered this number in 4/5 at home. With two bad teams, I’m simply putting one of my picks against the spread on the team getting the points at home.

  • Falcons (+3) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s another short home underdog that I’m backing in my Week 9 ATS picks. It’s also another team that doesn’t have a winning record that I’m throwing down with. Maybe that’s not the best strategy. But Atlanta is 3-1 at home and 6-2 ATS overall on the season.

The Chargers wins have come over the Raiders, Texans, Browns and Broncos. That quartet have a combined record of 9-21-1. Los Angeles could also be missing each of Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Joshus Palmer in the passing game as all are questionable on the injury report. They also rank 27th in rushing yards allowed, and will face the Falcons’ fifth-ranked ground game,

There’s really very little to like about either of these teams. The Rams are 3-4 and have lost three of their past four. The Buccaneers are 3-5 and have lost each of their past three. Neither Matthew Stafford or Tom Brady look anything like their old selves and both teams look very unlikely of factoring into the playoff picture.

Brady at least has thrown for the second-most yards in the league and has a 9-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Stafford has only thrown eight TDs compared to nine INTs. Make no mistake, both are having awful years. Brady may not be turning the ball over, but nine TDs rank way down there. Even behind Carson Wentz who has already been benched.

The thing is someone has to win this one. The Bucs at least have offensive weapons and are playing at home. Whereas, Stafford already had few options to go to, and now Kupp, while likely to play, could be slowed by an ankle injury suffered last week.

 

Zach Reger

  • Lions (+3.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I want no part of this Green Bay team right now. They might have covered a large spread on Sunday Night against the Bills, but it was not a cover that Green Bay backers felt great about when watching the game. The Packers are playing their fourth game away from Lambeau Field in five weeks, including a London trip where they fell to the Giants. They have to be exhausted and the morale cannot be good in that locker room.

One thing about the Lions is they do fight, especially against the Packers, a divisional rival. Detroit is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against Green Bay. Give me the “dome” underdog with the hook.

  • Bears (+4.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This is gross I know, but hear me out. They are losing pieces on the defensive side of the ball, but their secondary is still strong, which they will need against Tua and Co. Last week, the Lions were able to run all over Miami and set the tempo. Despite being pass-heavy last week because they fell down big early, the Bears want to run the ball. With Justin Field Fields, David Mongomery, and Khalil Herbert, they should be able to dictate the pace in this game. Plus, the Bears’ passing game has improved immensely over the past couple of weeks, and now they have Chase Claypool.

Just as a little extra, while the weather might be okay, there is something “fishy” about the Dolphins traveling to Chicago in November. Give me yet another home underdog, which are 54.9% against the spread this season.

The Chargers are coming off of a much-needed bye. They snuck out of Denver on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago, then lost by two touchdowns to the Seahawks. The Chargers have had two weeks to prepare for this game and to get things figured out. They are the more talented team in this matchup, so it is time for them to play like it.

This is also an interesting spot for Atlanta. They just came off that thriller against Carolina and now sit atop the NFC South. Despite the Panthers handing them the victory twice, the Falcons are riding high. Atlanta plays the Panthers yet again on Thursday Night Football next week, so they will have a short week. I never thought I would say that the Falcons could be overlooking the Chargers for the Panthers, but it is definitely a possibility with how close the NFC South rankings are.

The Chargers’ offense should have their way against a Falcons defense that cannot stop anyone right now. Give me Chargers -3 on Sunday.

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Bob Duff

  • Dolphins (-4) at BetMGM

The Dolphins are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in games started and finished this season by Tagovailoa. Both Tyreek Hill (188) and Jaylen Waddle (106) went beyond 100 receiving yards in last week’s win over the Detroit Lions.

Chicago is #7 in the NFL at defending the pass (188.0 yards per game). However, the Bears sent up the virtual white flag in the past week, trading away defensive stalwarts Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.

  • Ravens (-2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Ravens are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games, but they are 3-1 ATS on the road in 2022. Baltimore is facing the easiest schedule in the NFL over the remaining nine weeks. Not one opponent currently is showing a winning record.

New Orleans is 3-2 ATS at home. But the Saints have managed to lose outright to both the Buccaneers and Panthers this season.

  • Seahawks (+2) at FanDuel Sportsbook

A full-time starter for the first time since 2014, Smith has thrown for 1,924 yards. He’s showing a 72.3 completion percentage, 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. His passer rating is 107.2.

Arizona has lost two in a row and three of four to Seattle. At home, the Cardinals are 1-7-1 SU and 2-6-1ATS in the last nine games against the Seahawks.

 

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