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49ers Super Bowl 53 Odds Tank After Jimmy Garoppolo Injury

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Sep 26, 2018 · 12:13 PM PDT

Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo's 2018 NFL season is over, after the pivot tore his ACL in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)
  • Garoppolo injury sinks 49ers Super Bowl odds
  • Do Seahawks suddenly have hope in the West?
  • Finding the current best Super Bowl value odds

Unfortunately, the ‘G’ in Jimmy G now stands for gone.

Week 3 in the NFL claimed its first major in-season casualty as 49ers pivot Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a knee injury against the Chiefs, later determined to be a season-ending torn ACL.

That thud you heard was the bottom falling out of the hopes of the 49ers season, with the simultaneous possibility of turning the NFC West into a one star town (more on that in a minute).

San Francisco was considered, just before kickoff this season, one of the teams that could see themselves in the ATL for Super Bowl 53. They may not have been the favorite, but certainly one of the handful of “if everything breaks right we’ve got as good a shot as anyone” teams.

Average Odds to Win Super Bowl 53

Now? Sportsbooks have put the proverbial boots to those hopes, as their average odds to win Super Bowl 53 now sit at +18200!

The 49ers are now in a group headlined by “unless Jesus Christ comes to earth to quarterback us …” territory, a place currently being decorated by the likes of the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets.

Super Bowl 53 Odds

Rank Team Odds
1 Los Angeles Rams +400
2 New England Patriots +800
3 Kansas City Chiefs +900
4 Philadelphia Eagles +1100
5 Minnesota Vikings +1200
26 San Francisco 49ers +8000

As you see, books are still being rather kind to the Niners during these hard times.

Are the 49ers still worthy of a wager to win Super Bowl 53?

The reality is, you can win in the NFL one of two ways: through strong structure or through stellar quarterback play. The reason the 49ers were thought of so highly was because they were settled at pivot with Garoppolo, who many pegged as a star in the NFL.

The brain trust of GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan, while impressive with their early returns, are both just a season and change into their program build, so the infrastructure isn’t yet built to support the loss of a superstar. On talent alone, they’re simply not the Eagles (yet).

And if the Niners stand pat on their QB situation, they’re going to be going with CJ Beathard. That’s not just a downgrade: that’s going from potentially upper echelon to taking a deep gulp and hoping for the best.

Jimmy G vs CJ Beathard Statistical Comparison

Garoppolo
VS
Beathard
10 Career Starts 5
8-2 Record 1-4
65.4 Comp% 54.9
2,968 Yards 1,430
8.2 Yards/Attempt 6.4
17 TD 4
8 INT 6
97.3 Rating 69.2

Gosh, is there a quarterback out there that has athleticism and has shown an ability to be accurate and win games in the NFL?

Unless San Francisco makes an upgrade at pivot, this is going to be a lost season, and not worth a wager.

Do the Seahawks gain playoff life?

After starting 0-2, the Seahawks picked up a must-win in their home opener against the Cowboys.

And with the Jimmy G news, there is the potential for a run: with four games against Beathard and Josh Rosen’s hapless Arizona Cardinals, they could be in the West picture. Sportsbooks are realizing this, too, shortening Seattle’s average odds to win Super Bowl 53 to +6800, down from +10200 a week ago.

Unfortunately, the Los Angeles Rams are busy lighting the league on fire and are working towards the best record in the NFL. Barring injury, the West is theirs.

The NFC is also an absurdly strong conference that will likely need 10 wins to secure a wild card. In the south, two of the Panthers, Saints, Falcons, and Bucs will be in the mix, and so could two of the Vikings, Packers and Bears.

The Redskins haven’t looked so bad, and with the ‘Hawks, that’s seven teams seeking out two spots. The opening season losses to Denver and Chicago really hurt, and are probably going to be their undoing.

Which team’s Super Bowl odds offer the most value?

After three weeks, it’s shocking that the Chiefs (+900) still have longer odds than the Patriots (+800). I’d jump on them now, they look like they’re on a collision course with the Rams.

A longer shot? How about the Panthers at +2800?

They are back to power running (2nd in rushing DVOA), and utilizing Cam Newton as a dual purpose beast in the red zone. If their offense keeps grinding, they have a defense that can match.

And if you want to go deep, there’s another +8000 team that could pique your interest.

The Browns are seriously a team on the rise, and unlike the 49ers, their franchise pivot is healthy. Baker Mayfield is currently operating at rock star status, and with him at the helm to go along with a very strong defense (6th in defensive DVOA) holding down the fort, a small wager could go a long way.

It’s still a dream bet, but with what’s been going on in the NFL, you can’t rule anything out just yet.

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